
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 05/09/2024
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 10, 2024 226 May 07, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL May May 10, 2024 769 May 08, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 10, 2024 8 Apr 30, 2024
CORN May May 10, 2024 364 Apr 29, 2024
SOYBEAN May May 10, 2024 5 May 03, 2024
WHEAT May May 10, 2024 20 May 08, 2024
MINI-SIZED WHEAT May May 10, 2024 65 Apr 29, 2024
DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA 2023
Corn Production 14,897 14,720-15,342 15,342
Soybean Production 4,430 4,165-4,496 4,165
****
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,098 1,967-2,350 2,122
Soybeans 341 304-365 340
Wheat 689 598-710 698
U.S. 2024-25 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 2,256 2,032-2,513 N/A
Soybeans 432 315-552 N/A
Wheat 786 652-862 N/A
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA April
Corn 315.3 311.0-317.2 318.3
Soybeans 112.4 109.0-115.0 114.2
Wheat 258.1 257.0-259.5 258.3
2024-25
Average Range USDA April
Corn 317.4 312.0-321.2 N/A
Soybeans 120.0 109.5-130.2 N/A
Wheat 256.9 241.8-264.4 N/A
****
2024-25 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA 2023-24
All Wheat 1,895 1,775-1,952 1,812
Winter Wheat 1,311 1,210-1,395 1,248
Hard Red Winter 681 570-775 601
Soft Red Winter 413 343-486 449
White Winter 210 190-224 198
****
2023-24 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 122.5 120.0-125.6 124.0
Soybeans 152.6 147.0-155.0 155.0
2023-24 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA April
Corn 52.0 50.0-55.0 55.0
Soybeans 49.5 48.0-50.0 50.0
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-May 9
For the week ended May 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 41.1 406.0 18837.7 18928.5 1765.5 2959.6
hrw 1.2 155.9 3599.4 5120.0 440.0 670.3
srw 5.9 73.8 4294.1 2927.3 381.9 452.6
hrs 18.1 123.8 6428.8 5752.1 524.7 984.1
white 11.1 49.0 3988.5 4676.4 391.7 782.6
durum 4.9 3.5 527.0 452.7 27.3 70.0
corn 889.2 49.1 47623.9 38393.6 13180.1 2177.2
soybeans 428.9 4.6 42336.4 50707.9 3657.5 865.2
soymeal 209.3 19.2 11364.7 10020.4 2778.0 366.9
soyoil 11.6 4.6 123.0 117.7 64.6 12.1
upland cotton 253.7 158.9 11645.3 12499.2 3321.4 1460.4
pima cotton 5.6 0.0 304.8 297.7 59.4 3.3
sorghum 61.5 0.0 5145.1 1643.9 658.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.7 12.0 6.1 14.0
rice 8.3 7.8 3031.1 1862.1 543.6 51.5
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday in correction trading after the recent rally Traders were preparing for the USDA reports coming later this week.. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 610, 596, and 593 July, with resistance at 661, 667, and 673 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 664, 637, and 630 July, with resistance at 682, 688, and 604 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 747 July. Support is at 697, 686, and 671 July, and resistance is at 733, 738, and 746 July.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in old crop months yesterday, but lower in new crop months as correction trading. The futures market overall remained in a short term trading range. Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US. The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1827, 1785, and 1750 July and resistance is at 1915, 1955, and 1972 July.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on traders prepared for th next rund of USDA reports. The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil
Overnight News: Mexico bought 132,080 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 470 July. Support is at 460, 454, and 450 July, and resistance is at 470, 477, and 483 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 383, 378, and 362 July, and resistance is at 402, 408, and 414 July.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed mostly lower yesterday as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later this week. Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil. Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires. Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil. Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market. Funds remain short in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1248 July. Support is at 1401, 1221, and 1216 July, and resistance is at 1260, 1269, and 1280 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 375.00, 370.00, and 361.00 July, and resistance is at 390.00, 393.00, and 397.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4530, 4610, and 4690 July.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on weaker bio fuels demand but found some support late in the week on reports of strong demand from India and reports of reduced production. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 660.00, 639.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 672.00, 679.00, and 589.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3780, 3740, and 3700 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May
June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July
July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 852.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 850.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 857.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 800.00 -00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 3,930.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 294.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.737)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 09
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,461 lots, or 4.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 4,705 4,705 4,705 0 0 766
Jul-24 4,671 4,688 4,657 4,684 4,703 4,670 -33 74,151 99,135
Sep-24 4,677 4,684 4,653 4,675 4,698 4,666 -32 18,666 37,886
Nov-24 4,618 4,636 4,610 4,626 4,642 4,619 -23 997 5,050
Jan-25 4,619 4,625 4,598 4,616 4,631 4,609 -22 1,398 7,404
Mar-25 4,605 4,615 4,592 4,608 4,623 4,602 -21 249 530
Corn
Turnover: 789,269 lots, or 19.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,406 2,426 2,405 2,425 2,411 2,420 9 952 36,127
Jul-24 2,444 2,465 2,441 2,446 2,442 2,452 10 528,637 708,215
Sep-24 2,462 2,484 2,459 2,467 2,461 2,473 12 165,276 407,207
Nov-24 2,411 2,438 2,410 2,420 2,414 2,423 9 57,330 149,260
Jan-25 2,401 2,422 2,394 2,404 2,396 2,408 12 29,496 112,568
Mar-25 2,402 2,425 2,396 2,410 2,399 2,409 10 7,578 15,799
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,398,945 lots, or 85.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,471 3,526 3,437 3,508 3,474 3,474 0 584 3,308
Jul-24 3,498 3,544 3,467 3,498 3,496 3,506 10 93,085 152,598
Aug-24 3,586 3,615 3,552 3,569 3,587 3,582 -5 22,682 75,502
Sep-24 3,581 3,618 3,553 3,571 3,587 3,582 -5 2,037,850 2,346,994
Nov-24 3,575 3,615 3,548 3,569 3,575 3,577 2 73,145 186,329
Dec-24 3,563 3,594 3,541 3,555 3,568 3,569 1 13,852 25,705
Jan-25 3,510 3,544 3,482 3,503 3,510 3,514 4 145,794 357,928
Mar-25 3,339 3,353 3,318 3,324 3,343 3,337 -6 11,953 23,799
Palm Oil
Turnover: 734,571 lots, or 54.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,720 7,730 7,666 7,670 7,794 7,690 -104 78 1,369
Jun-24 7,582 7,588 7,494 7,524 7,626 7,536 -90 8,883 9,651
Jul-24 7,518 7,518 7,436 7,456 7,562 7,484 -78 4,801 6,423
Aug-24 7,484 7,490 7,410 7,430 7,544 7,448 -96 517 1,146
Sep-24 7,456 7,476 7,388 7,406 7,536 7,438 -98 685,004 536,542
Oct-24 7,450 7,468 7,396 7,404 7,524 7,436 -88 267 490
Nov-24 7,456 7,456 7,380 7,396 7,518 7,426 -92 112 739
Dec-24 7,450 7,450 7,380 7,394 7,520 7,416 -104 68 534
Jan-25 7,446 7,458 7,366 7,378 7,514 7,418 -96 33,878 99,281
Feb-25 7,428 7,446 7,382 7,382 7,494 7,422 -72 66 299
Mar-25 7,438 7,464 7,388 7,408 7,486 7,442 -44 875 2,414
Apr-25 7,440 7,460 7,402 7,408 7,488 7,434 -54 22 52
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 502,377 lots, or 38.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 – – – 7,730 7,742 7,730 -12 161 2,043
Jul-24 7,712 7,716 7,628 7,640 7,746 7,682 -64 5,139 20,991
Aug-24 7,738 7,738 7,658 7,670 7,772 7,704 -68 834 15,488
Sep-24 7,746 7,768 7,682 7,698 7,804 7,728 -76 454,369 759,045
Nov-24 7,778 7,784 7,706 7,722 7,822 7,750 -72 1,156 8,536
Dec-24 7,828 7,842 7,778 7,782 7,884 7,808 -76 307 1,890
Jan-25 7,828 7,838 7,758 7,772 7,874 7,804 -70 38,964 124,904
Mar-25 7,710 7,730 7,674 7,694 7,752 7,710 -42 1,447 2,925
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.