About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Wheat:  Wheat was higher last week to close with mixed trends in Winter Wheat markets.  Trends are up in Minneapolis.  The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe.  The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength.  Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.  Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period.  Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.

Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures

Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures


Corn:  Corn and Oats closed higher last week on reports of adverse production conditions in South America.  The Argentine crop has been hit by stunting disease that robs yields and the Brazil Winter crop is suffering from hot and dry weather.  Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but now South American weather is the driving force.  Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong.  Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately.  There is very dry weather for the Winter crops in central and northern Brazil

Weekly Corn Futures

 Weekly Oats Futures


Soybeans and Soybean Meal:  Soybeans closed higher and the products closed mixed last week, with Soybean Meal higher and Soybean Oil lower.  Support for Soybeans came from reports of excessive rains falling on unharvested crops in southern Brazil.  Rains up to 400 mm were reported by newswires.  Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices.  Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week.  Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support.  Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season.  Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower.  Domestic demand has been strong in the US but has suffered as crushers were crushing for oil.  Oil demand has suffered as cheaper alternatives for feedstocks hit the bio fuels market.  Funds remain large shorts in the market.

Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures


Rice:  Rice closed slightly lower last week after a week of big highs and lows and wide ranges of trading.  Support comes from adverse weather in South American growing areas while new selling is noted from the potential for a big crop in the US.  The big US crops are now in doubt from reports of extreme rains in southern growing areas and especially near Houston.  Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall.  These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop.  The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.

Weekly Chicago Rice Futures


Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils:  Palm Oil was lower last week on weaker bio fuels demand but found some support late in the week on reports of strong demand from India and reports of reduced production.  Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts.  Canola was higher despite weaker prices in world vegetable oils markets.  Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.

Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures

Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures

Weekly Canola Futures


Cotton:  Cotton was lower last week after making new lows for the move and trends remain down in the market.  Demand remains a problem.  The export sales report showed poor sales once again and demand is not likely to improve with the Dollar stronger.  USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts.  Demand has been weaker so far this year.  The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.   However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.

Weekly US Cotton Futures


Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus:  FCOJ closed higher last week and held the trading range once again.  Reports of tight supplies are around.  Nielsen is reporting less retail demand due to the higher prices and volumes sold at retail have sagged.  Futures still appear to have topped out and a range trade has been seen.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now.  The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.

Weekly FCOJ Futures


Coffee:  New York and London closed much lower last week and gave up the up trends as offers appeared to increase in the cash market in Brazil and Vietnam.  The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market was the main feature, but less offers of Arabica are also noted.  This appears to be changing.  There were some indications that Brazil and Vietnam producers were now offering Coffee,  Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year.  The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is continuing and offers for all Coffee increased last week in part on weakness in the Real.  Roasters and other buyers are pulling back from the market in hopes of lower prices down the road.

Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures

Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures


Sugar:  New York and London held to a two week long trading range.  There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released a few weeks ago by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher.  Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years.  There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries.  Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.  Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.

Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures

Weekly London White Sugar Futures


Cocoa:  New York and London were sharply lower last week as the rally has collapsed.  Trends are down on the daily charts.  It seemed that speculators were liquidating long positions.  Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures.  Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing.  Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue.  Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest.  Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.

Weekly New York Cocoa Futures

Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322