Grains Report 05/01/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – May 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL May May 02, 2024 152 Apr 25, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL May May 02, 2024 1,322 Apr 30, 2024
ROUGH RICE May May 02, 2024 157 Apr 29, 2024
CORN May May 02, 2024 3 Oct 27, 2023
SOYBEAN May May 02, 2024 263 Apr 26, 2024
WHEAT May May 02, 2024 678 Apr 29, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on follow through selling, and trends are down in Winter Wheat markets. Trends are mixed in Minneapolis. The US Dollar was higher yesterday to help cause the selling. The weather is still a key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again and sales are not likely to improve anytime soon with the Dollar strength. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 596, 593, and 589 July, with resistance at 616, 633, and 639 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 633, 625, and 613 July, with resistance at 650, 663, and 669 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 697, 686, and 681 July, and resistance is at 709, 717, and 721 July.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and maintained the current trading range. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. These ideas are reflected in the prices seen in the cold crop and the new crop. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1886, 1866, and 1850 July and resistance is at 1955, 1974, and 1993 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 1
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.09 14.61 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.61 15.85 0.00
Brokens 14.57 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed slightly lower yesterday on reports of rapid planting progress in the Midwest as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally but the rally has stalled now as the US Dollar has turned higher. Increased demand was noted in most domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. Ethanol demand has turned less due to weaker petroleum prices seen lately. There are mixed ideas about how many acres of Corn will be planted in the US this year. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding at an average pace. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 440, 436, and 434 July, and resistance is at 450, 454, and 460 July. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 362, 356, and 354 July, and resistance is at 373, 384, and 390 July.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little lower and the products closed mixed yesterday, with Soybean Meal higher and Soybean Oil lower and making new lows for the move. Ideas of less bio fuels demand have hurt Soybean Oil prices. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support, but increased availability of Soy products from Argentina kept prices down. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1159, 1146, and 1141 July, and resistance is at 1191, 1204, and 1216 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives of 369.00 July. Support is at 347.00, 342.00, and 340.00 July, and resistance is at 361.00, 368.00, and 370.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4140 July, with resistance at 4410, 4460, and 4530 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas of seasonally increasing production and weaker demand from India and China. It was closed tday for the holiday. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was a little higher along with Chicago. Farmers concentrate on fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 598.00 and 560.00 July. Support is at 616.00, 603.00, and 597.00 July, with resistance at 629.00, 634.00, and 641.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3780, 3740, and 3700 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 55 May 150 May
50 May
60 May

June 48 July 135 July 40 July 54 July

July 50 July 135 July 40 July 60 July

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322