Grains Report 04/29/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher last week and trends are up in all three markets. The weather is the key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with no objectives. Support is at 610, 602, and 593 July, with resistance at 633, 639, and 655 July. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 636, 625, and 613 July, with resistance at 663, 669, and 675 July. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 697, 686, and 682 July, and resistance is at 717, 8721, and 732 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 453,343
: Positions :
: 40,885 146,693 134,382 72,512 81,055 172,393 56,167 420,172 418,297: 33,171 35,047
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,935) :
: 4,011 -12,189 2,767 -117 11,899 -1,425 -942 5,236 1,534: -1,302 2,400
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 32.4 29.6 16.0 17.9 38.0 12.4 92.7 92.3: 7.3 7.7
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 117 107 84 83 49 35 280 276:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 285,022
: Positions :
: 23,603 83,985 69,645 68,713 80,046 103,080 30,327 265,042 264,004: 19,980 21,018
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,792) :
: -941 -6,282 -6,956 244 8,878 -36 -1,546 -7,689 -5,906: 897 -886
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 29.5 24.4 24.1 28.1 36.2 10.6 93.0 92.6: 7.0 7.4
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 42 66 64 67 70 37 23 190 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 66,461 :
: Positions :
: 34,397 14,410 2,695 1 493 8,886 33,442 3,079 1,993 716 4,189 :
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 :
: -4,095 -1,212 12 -312 -15 339 -703 -1,657 616 -138 -776 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.8 21.7 4.1 0.0 0.7 13.4 50.3 4.6 3.0 1.1 6.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 111 :
: 51 38 5 . . 10 25 11 10 . 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week in correction trading from the dramatic rally the week before. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1850, 1826, and 1785 July and resistance is at 1936, 1508, and 1993 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,394 :
: Positions :
: 3,525 6,418 0 0 0 1,932 651 5 1,073 378 903 :
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 :
: -780 976 0 -146 0 867 -305 -80 -64 -176 144 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.5 68.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.6 6.9 0.1 11.4 4.0 9.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 18 18 0 0 0 10 . . 9 6 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Demand has been the driving force behind the rally. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. There are mixed ideas about how many acres of Corn will be planted in the US this year. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding at an average pace. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 447, 440, and 436 July, and resistance is at 454, 460, and 467 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 368 and 382 July. Support is at 354, 349, and 343 July, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 373 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,969,357
: Positions :
: 121,023 360,729 623,704 528,825 555,993 492,786 214,477 1,766,338 1,754,903: 203,019 214,454
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,149) :
: 6,073 -34,703 4,677 -11,586 29,793 9,580 9,651 8,744 9,418: -5,595 -6,269
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.1 18.3 31.7 26.9 28.2 25.0 10.9 89.7 89.1: 10.3 10.9
: Total Traders: 766 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 123 162 196 349 326 53 40 640 629:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher and the products closed mixed last week, with Soybean Meal a little lower and Soybean Oil a little higher. Some selling from Brazil and Argentina was noted on the early rally attempt last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support, but increased availability of Soy products from Argentina kept prices down. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1164, 1146, and 1141 July, and resistance is at 1191, 1204, and 1216 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 345.00, 340.00, and 336.00 July, and resistance is at 352.00, 355.00, and 360.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4520, 4460, and 4410 July, with resistance at 4610, 4690, and 4780 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,057,438
: Positions :
: 40,723 204,746 342,255 418,914 363,393 192,561 76,959 994,452 987,353: 62,986 70,085
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: -69,334) :
: -527 -17,746 -36,008 -28,820 -8,512 -2,199 -1,297 -67,553 -63,563: -1,781 -5,771
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 3.9 19.4 32.4 39.6 34.4 18.2 7.3 94.0 93.4: 6.0 6.6
: Total Traders: 550 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 178 190 189 188 52 28 460 465:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 624,397
: Positions :
: 60,755 128,482 163,971 201,960 258,128 167,151 45,023 593,837 595,605: 30,561 28,792
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: -26,554) :
: -1,184 -8,730 -13,333 -11,295 -9,171 347 4,806 -25,465 -26,428: -1,088 -126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 20.6 26.3 32.3 41.3 26.8 7.2 95.1 95.4: 4.9 4.6
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 85 102 100 95 45 22 273 260:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 543,681
: Positions :
: 76,873 89,755 130,625 155,583 261,261 129,666 30,903 492,746 512,543: 50,935 31,138
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,394) :
: 19,799 -5,776 -5,752 -15,682 16,645 1,288 -3,583 -347 1,534: -1,048 -2,928
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 16.5 24.0 28.6 48.1 23.8 5.7 90.6 94.3: 9.4 5.7
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 67 78 99 124 117 38 23 290 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of seasonally increasing production and weaker demand from India and China. Trends are down on the daily and weekly charts. Canola was a little higher as farmers concentrate of=n fieldwork and not selling.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 631.00, 627.00, and 618.00 July, with resistance at 641.00, 650.00, and 653.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3790 and 3650 July. Support is at 3820, 3780, and 3740 July, with resistance at 3930, 4020, and 4040 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 47,130 :
: Positions :
: 37,930 14,920 1,140 14,810 230 800 3,830 200 640 6,950 6,160 :
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 :
: -690 -960 0 640 -500 0 370 0 280 -450 610 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.5 31.7 2.4 31.4 0.5 1.7 8.1 0.4 1.4 14.7 13.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 9 10 . 4 . . . . . 9 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 23, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 251,095 :
: Positions :
: 195,930 91,494 4,437 5,337 2,752 5,707 109,572 22,978 9,673 9,164 7,270 :
: Changes from: April 16, 2024 :
: -13,727 -6,563 2,154 569 -558 1,228 -1,456 -5,660 -248 -2,880 -2,148 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.0 36.4 1.8 2.1 1.1 2.3 43.6 9.2 3.9 3.6 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 319 :
: 63 57 4 6 6 13 88 22 67 52 49 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian pworts
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 882.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 870.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 852.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 887.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 857.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 900.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4040.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 297.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.769)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 85,153 lots, or .39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,666 4,670 4,646 4,654 4,668 4,654 -14 1,658 2,124
Jul-24 4,643 4,659 4,621 4,656 4,651 4,641 -10 64,818 93,698
Sep-24 4,630 4,646 4,614 4,643 4,638 4,630 -8 16,216 35,653
Nov-24 4,584 4,599 4,575 4,597 4,587 4,585 -2 667 4,202
Jan-25 4,570 4,589 4,563 4,584 4,574 4,575 1 1,747 5,848
Mar-25 4,571 4,574 4,557 4,574 4,564 4,565 1 47 383
Corn
Turnover: 632,185 lots, or 1.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,389 2,394 2,379 2,389 2,385 2,387 2 24,698 95,277
Jul-24 2,390 2,400 2,375 2,391 2,396 2,387 -9 453,344 767,128
Sep-24 2,417 2,423 2,399 2,412 2,420 2,409 -11 123,351 396,789
Nov-24 2,374 2,382 2,361 2,372 2,378 2,370 -8 12,576 56,360
Jan-25 2,378 2,378 2,358 2,365 2,373 2,365 -8 17,808 94,285
Mar-25 2,378 2,385 2,366 2,374 2,380 2,372 -8 408 1,735
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,402,923 lots, or 47.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,263 3,281 3,242 3,260 3,264 3,260 -4 43,607 57,779
Jul-24 3,290 3,312 3,273 3,291 3,293 3,291 -2 64,476 153,349
Aug-24 3,379 3,400 3,353 3,373 3,377 3,374 -3 6,655 59,472
Sep-24 3,380 3,404 3,353 3,375 3,380 3,376 -4 1,189,748 2,129,087
Nov-24 3,371 3,392 3,346 3,369 3,371 3,365 -6 13,698 63,882
Dec-24 3,391 3,404 3,368 3,387 3,388 3,385 -3 495 7,776
Jan-25 3,353 3,377 3,333 3,352 3,353 3,352 -1 81,925 339,508
Mar-25 3,242 3,257 3,218 3,232 3,241 3,235 -6 2,319 9,708
Palm Oil
Turnover: 827,504 lots, or 61.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,802 7,874 7,792 7,814 7,738 7,826 88 8,342 9,448
Jun-24 7,662 7,706 7,618 7,620 7,610 7,660 50 7,557 8,982
Jul-24 7,512 7,570 7,490 7,502 7,458 7,524 66 2,704 5,381
Aug-24 7,444 7,512 7,444 7,456 7,390 7,474 84 437 1,019
Sep-24 7,408 7,492 7,396 7,434 7,332 7,440 108 762,150 498,265
Oct-24 7,390 7,472 7,384 7,422 7,312 7,422 110 189 486
Nov-24 7,372 7,434 7,370 7,412 7,320 7,404 84 80 769
Dec-24 7,356 7,442 7,346 7,406 7,310 7,396 86 155 538
Jan-25 7,324 7,446 7,324 7,408 7,306 7,392 86 45,661 83,710
Feb-25 7,352 7,430 7,346 7,382 7,302 7,384 82 59 270
Mar-25 7,348 7,424 7,340 7,380 7,314 7,386 72 130 1,831
Apr-25 7,374 7,442 7,354 7,428 7,310 7,408 98 40 37
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 559,445 lots, or 42.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,588 7,682 7,576 7,630 7,558 7,618 60 9,118 6,749
Jul-24 7,576 7,652 7,552 7,612 7,536 7,594 58 3,688 21,499
Aug-24 7,594 7,666 7,570 7,624 7,546 7,610 64 533 15,464
Sep-24 7,614 7,692 7,592 7,650 7,578 7,638 60 504,944 710,308
Nov-24 7,610 7,704 7,610 7,666 7,594 7,652 58 986 8,423
Dec-24 7,680 7,748 7,666 7,736 7,634 7,698 64 50 1,717
Jan-25 7,640 7,728 7,632 7,692 7,616 7,678 62 39,953 112,237
Mar-25 7,570 7,624 7,544 7,594 7,530 7,596 66 173 2,272
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322