Grains Report 04/24/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday and trends turned up in all three markets. The weather is the key, with extreme dryness reported in Russia and parts of the US and too wet conditions reported in Europe. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 618 May. Support is at 550, 541, and 5134 May, with resistance at 594, 597, and 608 May. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 590, 583, and 572 May, with resistance at 612, 623, and 6033 May. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 692 and 702 May. Support is at 650, 643, and 6032 May, and resistance is at 677, 681, and 688 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in old crop months, but lower in new crop months as the perceptions of the different marketing years emerged. Supply tightness is expected to give way to increased production this year and greatly increased supplies this Fall. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1818 May and resistance is at 1936, 1948, and 1960 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.19 14.67 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.70 15.91 0.00
Brokens 14.63 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on demand ideas as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories along with rising basis levels, and export demand has been strong. There are mixed ideas about how many acres of Corn will be planted in the US this year. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding at an average pace. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 443 and 452 May. Support is at 431, 426, and 422 May, and resistance is at 448, 454, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 370 May. Support is at 352, 344, and 339 May, and resistance is at 369, 376, and 379 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday in sympathy with the rallies in the other markets. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 121,500 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 11423, 1132, and 1120 May, and resistance is at 1181, 1193, and 1207 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 330.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4470, 4410, and 4350 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 657.00 and 667.00 May. Support is at 620.00, 613.00, and 606.00 May, with resistance at 637.00, 645.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3880, 3860, and 3770 July, with resistance at 4040, 4180, and 4230 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 900.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 880.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 905.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 905.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 790.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,130.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 312.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7765)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 130,833 lots, or 6.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,660 4,691 4,644 4,673 4,656 4,659 3 12,537 5,700
Jul-24 4,600 4,662 4,590 4,654 4,621 4,618 -3 87,352 99,381
Sep-24 4,600 4,650 4,585 4,643 4,612 4,613 1 28,380 36,251
Nov-24 4,550 4,598 4,545 4,591 4,569 4,571 2 781 4,133
Jan-25 4,545 4,586 4,531 4,582 4,561 4,560 -1 1,636 5,853
Mar-25 4,535 4,575 4,530 4,568 4,548 4,556 8 147 374
Corn
Turnover: 410,418 lots, or 9.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,413 2,413 2,400 2,403 2,402 2,404 2 29,757 151,009
Jul-24 2,414 2,424 2,409 2,422 2,414 2,417 3 311,486 695,904
Sep-24 2,430 2,443 2,430 2,441 2,437 2,437 0 58,601 364,067
Nov-24 2,399 2,409 2,396 2,405 2,403 2,403 0 3,650 52,500
Jan-25 2,391 2,398 2,388 2,394 2,392 2,393 1 6,821 76,522
Mar-25 2,398 2,402 2,395 2,400 2,399 2,398 -1 103 1,245
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,489,411 lots, or 5.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,251 3,287 3,242 3,277 3,262 3,271 9 84,099 129,362
Jul-24 3,280 3,314 3,271 3,308 3,291 3,302 11 59,605 141,785
Aug-24 3,355 3,397 3,345 3,395 3,362 3,384 22 6,983 53,986
Sep-24 3,350 3,400 3,345 3,397 3,364 3,381 17 1,252,611 2,114,938
Nov-24 3,341 3,389 3,335 3,388 3,353 3,371 18 10,839 44,777
Dec-24 3,361 3,406 3,360 3,404 3,372 3,393 21 371 7,776
Jan-25 3,330 3,370 3,325 3,368 3,338 3,352 14 72,786 328,205
Mar-25 3,233 3,258 3,223 3,248 3,238 3,246 8 2,117 7,941
Palm Oil
Turnover: 885,827 lots, or 6.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,746 7,922 7,736 7,842 7,778 7,850 72 24,891 25,824
Jun-24 7,706 7,886 7,702 7,808 7,754 7,808 54 9,094 9,894
Jul-24 7,544 7,714 7,532 7,660 7,556 7,658 102 5,303 5,228
Aug-24 7,482 7,622 7,464 7,574 7,498 7,562 64 642 820
Sep-24 7,420 7,572 7,408 7,510 7,450 7,508 58 814,922 510,383
Oct-24 7,404 7,530 7,400 7,474 7,430 7,482 52 335 459
Nov-24 7,376 7,496 7,376 7,448 7,406 7,448 42 144 731
Dec-24 7,348 7,468 7,348 7,430 7,374 7,424 50 127 500
Jan-25 7,330 7,466 7,316 7,426 7,350 7,418 68 29,823 73,220
Feb-25 7,346 7,452 7,346 7,424 7,346 7,362 16 203 299
Mar-25 7,340 7,446 7,330 7,412 7,352 7,378 26 336 1,304
Apr-25 7,448 7,452 7,436 7,436 7,326 7,442 116 7 29
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 553,108 lots, or 42.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,580 7,678 7,576 7,638 7,576 7,640 64 24,311 23,595
Jul-24 7,564 7,652 7,546 7,630 7,546 7,608 62 4,164 23,016
Aug-24 7,572 7,660 7,568 7,640 7,552 7,614 62 1,005 15,844
Sep-24 7,600 7,694 7,586 7,668 7,600 7,654 54 494,201 703,797
Nov-24 7,616 7,700 7,602 7,680 7,604 7,672 68 654 8,491
Dec-24 7,644 7,728 7,644 7,718 7,668 7,702 34 74 1,659
Jan-25 7,600 7,696 7,596 7,684 7,618 7,666 48 28,569 99,117
Mar-25 7,530 7,624 7,530 7,600 7,554 7,602 48 130 1,558
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322