Grains Report 04/23/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week and trends remain mixed in all three markets. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 517, and 510 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 556 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 626, 610, and 604 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again last week and has rallied back to the contract highs. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower last week. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestic demand has been strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1128, 1114, and 1100 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4360, 4300, and 4240 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 602.00, 594.00, and 588.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4970, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4020, 4080, and 4140 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 905.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 885.00 -02.50 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 857.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 910.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 862.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 910.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 795.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,150.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 317.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.778)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,115 lots, or 5.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,651 4,674 4,631 4,659 4,665 4,656 -9 26,568 11,645
Jul-24 4,611 4,638 4,602 4,610 4,630 4,621 -9 72,907 92,194
Sep-24 4,606 4,630 4,584 4,602 4,610 4,612 2 22,044 32,604
Nov-24 4,558 4,587 4,542 4,556 4,563 4,569 6 537 4,084
Jan-25 4,548 4,580 4,527 4,544 4,554 4,561 7 1,908 5,754
Mar-25 4,535 4,566 4,532 4,546 4,545 4,548 3 151 349
Corn
Turnover: 561,846 lots, or 13.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,392 2,415 2,388 2,406 2,393 2,402 9 85,215 166,388
Jul-24 2,404 2,424 2,400 2,415 2,412 2,414 2 376,184 705,625
Sep-24 2,429 2,445 2,426 2,434 2,436 2,437 1 87,028 365,520
Nov-24 2,398 2,410 2,396 2,400 2,405 2,403 -2 5,011 51,853
Jan-25 2,390 2,400 2,386 2,391 2,395 2,392 -3 8,137 76,769
Mar-25 2,394 2,405 2,393 2,397 2,397 2,399 2 271 1,243
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,998,959 lots, or 67.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,241 3,295 3,221 3,258 3,256 3,262 6 112,973 159,875
Jul-24 3,267 3,327 3,247 3,286 3,276 3,291 15 52,925 134,357
Aug-24 3,339 3,398 3,317 3,361 3,350 3,362 12 6,567 53,275
Sep-24 3,342 3,401 3,316 3,363 3,350 3,364 14 1,720,116 2,022,310
Nov-24 3,330 3,387 3,306 3,351 3,336 3,353 17 7,541 37,871
Dec-24 3,349 3,403 3,331 3,372 3,359 3,372 13 814 7,787
Jan-25 3,313 3,371 3,298 3,340 3,323 3,338 15 94,942 328,478
Mar-25 3,219 3,260 3,207 3,238 3,229 3,238 9 3,081 7,341
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,154,388 lots or 86.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,714 7,898 7,652 7,776 7,740 7,778 38 49,056 30,626
Jun-24 7,606 7,840 7,592 7,732 7,614 7,754 140 17,721 8,998
Jul-24 7,460 7,662 7,436 7,566 7,474 7,556 82 5,276 6,966
Aug-24 7,398 7,586 7,372 7,488 7,406 7,498 92 798 986
Sep-24 7,360 7,544 7,334 7,442 7,364 7,450 86 1,048,840 505,214
Oct-24 7,330 7,506 7,310 7,404 7,322 7,430 108 251 499
Nov-24 7,306 7,474 7,278 7,380 7,296 7,406 110 125 741
Dec-24 7,288 7,454 7,268 7,364 7,280 7,374 94 93 488
Jan-25 7,268 7,438 7,244 7,350 7,268 7,350 82 31,522 68,512
Feb-25 7,270 7,428 7,250 7,346 7,254 7,346 92 89 142
Mar-25 7,270 7,420 7,264 7,356 7,248 7,352 104 589 1,162
Apr-25 7,258 7,412 7,258 7,360 7,256 7,326 70 28 27
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 828,120 lots, or 62.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,492 7,676 7,472 7,610 7,450 7,576 126 48,984 30,225
Jul-24 7,442 7,640 7,428 7,574 7,424 7,546 122 7,135 22,917
Aug-24 7,484 7,660 7,456 7,590 7,442 7,552 110 1,697 15,624
Sep-24 7,520 7,684 7,480 7,618 7,462 7,600 138 728,986 702,962
Nov-24 7,506 7,690 7,498 7,626 7,476 7,604 128 1,427 8,611
Dec-24 7,566 7,730 7,558 7,664 7,522 7,668 146 244 1,669
Jan-25 7,526 7,692 7,508 7,626 7,496 7,618 122 39,086 100,150
Mar-25 7,476 7,614 7,466 7,562 7,436 7,554 118 561 1,567
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322