Grains Report 04/19/2024

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 102.0 101.6-102.5
Placed in Mar 92.8 90.0- 94.7
Marketed in Mar 89.0 86.5- 91.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 93.2 87.1
Allendale Inc. 102.5 94.7 89.8
HedgersEdge 101.6 93.3 91.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.9 91.8 88.0
Midwest Market Solutions 101.8 93.5 91.3
NFC Markets 102.3 92.9 86.5
Texas A&M Extension 101.7 90.0 87.7
US Commodities 102.0 92.0 90.0

DJ Global Grains Forecast Lowered Slightly on Worsening Corn-Harvest Prospects
By Joe Hoppe
The forecast for global grain production was cut for the year as corn prospects worsen, the International Grains Council said in a report on Thursday.
The IGC now expects global grain output at 2.301 billion metric tons in 2023-24, down from March’s estimate of 2.304 billion tons. This remains a sharp rise on the prior-year’s estimated harvest of 2.266 billion tons, and would still be the largest on record.
The cut is due to a fall in expectations for corn harvests on rising disease and droughts in parts of the southern hemisphere, though corn production is still forecast to more than offset declines in wheat, barley and oats, the grains body said.
For corn, now it expects output of 1.223 billion tons in 2023-24, down from 1.227 billion tons at last month’s forecast. This is still a sharp rise from the prior-year harvest of 1.163 billion tons, when crop growth was hit by European droughts.
Wheat output is expected at 789 million tons while rice is expected at 512 million tons. Soybean output is expected to be a record 390 million tons, reflecting a heavy crop in Argentina more than offsetting smaller harvests in the U.S and Brazil.
For 2024-25, production is expected to increase for a second successive season to 2.322 billion tons, down from expectations last month of 2.332 billion tons.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher yesterday and trends remain mixed in all three markets. The weekly export sales report showed poor sales once again. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue but are apparently getting resolved in the governments favor. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 517, and 510 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 556 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 626, 610, and 604 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday as the long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Futures are now close to contract highs. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed ower and Oats closed higher yesterday as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 216,500 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestzic demand has brrn strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News: Unkniown destinations bought 193,000 tons of US Soybens.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1128, 1114, and 1100 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4360, 4300, and 4240 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 602.00, 594.00, and 588.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4970, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4020, 4080, and 4140 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 890.00 -02.50 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 840.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 915.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 895.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 850.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 845.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 915.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 792.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,150.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 319.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.784)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,446 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,650 4,670 4,636 4,667 4,669 4,653 -16 50,374 46,899
Jul-24 4,606 4,646 4,606 4,630 4,656 4,628 -28 47,754 64,614
Sep-24 4,600 4,623 4,590 4,611 4,638 4,608 -30 15,847 29,839
Nov-24 4,548 4,571 4,548 4,566 4,576 4,559 -17 954 3,986
Jan-25 4,547 4,563 4,543 4,560 4,572 4,554 -18 1,402 5,140
Mar-25 4,543 4,554 4,532 4,545 4,554 4,541 -13 115 255
Corn
Turnover: 723,160 lots, or 17.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,371 2,398 2,371 2,392 2,382 2,384 2 214,162 244,877
Jul-24 2,407 2,419 2,398 2,414 2,408 2,407 -1 396,479 669,081
Sep-24 2,430 2,445 2,420 2,440 2,435 2,434 -1 87,459 359,451
Nov-24 2,399 2,414 2,395 2,413 2,405 2,403 -2 6,280 47,414
Jan-25 2,388 2,405 2,381 2,404 2,390 2,395 5 18,525 73,027
Mar-25 2,391 2,411 2,388 2,407 2,394 2,401 7 255 1,111
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,795,243 lots, or 5.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,215 3,276 3,215 3,263 3,224 3,245 21 119,109 221,893
Jul-24 3,235 3,290 3,231 3,278 3,236 3,261 25 43,093 134,938
Aug-24 3,311 3,364 3,303 3,353 3,303 3,332 29 8,332 52,959
Sep-24 3,308 3,364 3,302 3,353 3,307 3,331 24 1,525,308 1,974,110
Nov-24 3,305 3,352 3,295 3,342 3,298 3,320 22 6,707 36,215
Dec-24 3,329 3,369 3,321 3,363 3,325 3,340 15 818 8,047
Jan-25 3,293 3,338 3,286 3,327 3,292 3,307 15 88,709 323,903
Mar-25 3,220 3,243 3,210 3,232 3,218 3,226 8 3,167 6,882
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,144,572 lots, or 85.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,810 7,914 7,790 7,814 7,868 7,842 -26 58,940 57,518
Jun-24 7,670 7,794 7,630 7,660 7,688 7,726 38 12,599 11,552
Jul-24 7,528 7,628 7,470 7,496 7,552 7,556 4 3,914 6,794
Aug-24 7,460 7,558 7,402 7,428 7,490 7,486 -4 826 971
Sep-24 7,420 7,518 7,354 7,382 7,454 7,436 -18 1,028,054 526,939
Oct-24 7,386 7,468 7,318 7,354 7,414 7,394 -20 515 458
Nov-24 7,394 7,430 7,300 7,316 7,386 7,370 -16 172 736
Dec-24 7,320 7,400 7,266 7,302 7,368 7,336 -32 164 472
Jan-25 7,334 7,390 7,234 7,284 7,352 7,322 -30 39,154 67,099
Feb-25 7,340 7,374 7,250 7,276 7,338 7,320 -18 41 148
Mar-25 7,284 7,362 7,236 7,266 7,344 7,314 -30 176 844
Apr-25 7,352 7,380 7,272 7,280 7,322 7,320 -2 17 16
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 716,376 lots, or 53.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,442 7,518 7,408 7,428 7,484 7,460 -24 48,952 56,655
Jul-24 7,448 7,488 7,362 7,404 7,456 7,424 -32 6,298 22,630
Aug-24 7,482 7,494 7,374 7,422 7,460 7,434 -26 823 15,616
Sep-24 7,476 7,524 7,394 7,440 7,486 7,466 -20 624,562 712,075
Nov-24 7,490 7,534 7,412 7,460 7,500 7,488 -12 1,168 8,593
Dec-24 7,532 7,572 7,456 7,502 7,550 7,536 -14 119 1,741
Jan-25 7,512 7,546 7,420 7,470 7,524 7,494 -30 33,679 100,082
Mar-25 7,464 7,512 7,400 7,426 7,496 7,454 -42 775 1,218
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322