Grains Report 04/18/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Apr 18
For the week ended Apr 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat -93.6 222.0 18734.8 18535.5 3082.7 1774.8
hrw 15.5 58.4 3625.6 5033.3 709.2 295.9
srw -132.8 38.5 4256.4 2810.4 708.2 274.0
hrs -12.2 115.7 6397.0 5666.6 982.6 600.4
white 35.9 0.0 3952.2 4611.7 658.2 538.0
durum 0.0 9.5 503.6 413.6 24.5 66.5
corn 501.2 65.0 44677.8 38051.9 14555.3 1832.2
soybeans 485.8 263.2 41282.7 50102.5 3594.9 733.6
soymeal 129.8 1.0 10716.6 9409.5 2850.6 309.1
soyoil 0.1 0.0 88.0 103.3 36.7 7.5
upland cotton 146.1 80.1 11117.2 11826.1 3484.6 1201.4
pima cotton 2.7 0.0 282.2 241.2 59.7 3.3
sorghum -1.8 0.0 5039.1 1594.6 911.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 11.8 11.5 6.2 14.0
rice 5.9 9.5 2926.3 1733.4 627.8 38.7

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 102.0 101.6-102.5
Placed in Mar 92.8 90.0- 94.7
Marketed in Mar 89.0 86.5- 91.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 93.2 87.1
Allendale Inc. 102.5 94.7 89.8
HedgersEdge 101.6 93.3 91.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.9 91.8 88.0
Midwest Market Solutions 101.8 93.5 91.3
NFC Markets 102.3 92.9 86.5
Texas A&M Extension 101.7 90.0 87.7
US Commodities 102.0 92.0 90.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday and tzrends remain mixed in all three markets. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 536, 527, and 517 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 578, 571, and 561 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 626, 610, and 604 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday as the long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats closed higher yesterday as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 339, 334, and 328 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher yesterday. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Domestzic demand has brrn strong in the US. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1140, 1128, and 1114 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4420, 4360, and 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4040, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4180, 4220, and 4300 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 920.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 892.50 -12.50 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 857.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 852.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 925.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 897.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 862.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 857.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 925.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 790.00 — Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 4,200.00 — Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
May 319.00 — Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7835)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 120,722 lots, or 5.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,686 4,693 4,640 4,642 4,676 4,669 -7 51,630 57,870
Jul-24 4,680 4,685 4,621 4,622 4,675 4,656 -19 45,299 56,185
Sep-24 4,660 4,676 4,601 4,604 4,674 4,638 -36 20,972 31,069
Nov-24 4,594 4,616 4,552 4,554 4,616 4,576 -40 1,088 3,784
Jan-25 4,586 4,609 4,550 4,551 4,605 4,572 -33 1,637 4,770
Mar-25 4,578 4,588 4,540 4,540 4,576 4,554 -22 96 257
Corn
Turnover: 525,530 lots, or 12.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,385 2,392 2,375 2,378 2,377 2,382 5 206,653 356,616
Jul-24 2,408 2,419 2,403 2,405 2,405 2,408 3 231,922 605,490
Sep-24 2,433 2,445 2,431 2,432 2,433 2,435 2 70,888 347,450
Nov-24 2,400 2,409 2,399 2,401 2,398 2,405 7 8,614 46,572
Jan-25 2,386 2,397 2,384 2,385 2,386 2,390 4 7,270 63,716
Mar-25 2,399 2,401 2,391 2,391 2,390 2,394 4 183 1,071
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,454,926 lots, or 47.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,204 3,244 3,194 3,240 3,251 3,224 -27 125,375 249,908
Jul-24 3,220 3,252 3,205 3,248 3,250 3,236 -14 29,145 137,017
Aug-24 3,286 3,327 3,277 3,321 3,311 3,303 -8 5,428 53,172
Sep-24 3,288 3,329 3,277 3,322 3,326 3,307 -19 1,208,084 1,959,652
Nov-24 3,286 3,317 3,270 3,315 3,310 3,298 -12 5,276 36,850
Dec-24 3,308 3,341 3,300 3,339 3,332 3,325 -7 599 8,034
Jan-25 3,281 3,307 3,267 3,305 3,303 3,292 -11 79,115 321,022
Mar-25 3,203 3,232 3,198 3,227 3,225 3,218 -7 1,904 6,779
Palm Oil
Turnover: 814,439 lots, or 60.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,920 7,930 7,822 7,854 7,962 7,868 -94 55,907 68,429
Jun-24 7,722 7,748 7,644 7,692 7,772 7,688 -84 6,481 10,541
Jul-24 7,560 7,602 7,514 7,552 7,624 7,552 -72 1,953 6,657
Aug-24 7,500 7,544 7,454 7,486 7,558 7,490 -68 585 999
Sep-24 7,458 7,508 7,410 7,452 7,522 7,454 -68 720,360 517,119
Oct-24 7,430 7,464 7,376 7,408 7,488 7,414 -74 445 485
Nov-24 7,376 7,432 7,350 7,400 7,436 7,386 -50 102 745
Dec-24 7,370 7,400 7,330 7,364 7,416 7,368 -48 113 471
Jan-25 7,360 7,398 7,312 7,358 7,374 7,352 -22 28,337 63,497
Feb-25 7,340 7,388 7,316 7,326 7,382 7,338 -44 17 150
Mar-25 7,320 7,378 7,308 7,338 7,366 7,344 -22 129 815
Apr-25 7,326 7,366 7,292 7,330 7,324 7,322 -2 10 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 546,397 lots, or 40.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,508 7,520 7,446 7,500 7,520 7,484 -36 50,932 68,182
Jul-24 7,472 7,488 7,416 7,470 7,468 7,456 -12 4,962 23,264
Aug-24 7,492 7,496 7,426 7,482 7,512 7,460 -52 1,734 15,657
Sep-24 7,502 7,522 7,444 7,508 7,514 7,486 -28 466,447 711,001
Nov-24 7,522 7,532 7,462 7,518 7,526 7,500 -26 980 8,622
Dec-24 7,568 7,584 7,520 7,548 7,586 7,550 -36 96 1,749
Jan-25 7,534 7,562 7,486 7,532 7,550 7,524 -26 21,083 97,835
Mar-25 7,496 7,534 7,460 7,488 7,524 7,496 -28 163 932
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322