Grains Report 04/17/2024

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 102.0 101.6-102.5
Placed in Mar 92.8 90.0- 94.7
Marketed in Mar 89.0 86.5- 91.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 93.2 87.1
Allendale Inc. 102.5 94.7 89.8
HedgersEdge 101.6 93.3 91.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.9 91.8 88.0
Midwest Market Solutions 101.8 93.5 91.3
NFC Markets 102.3 92.9 86.5
Texas A&M Extension 101.7 90.0 87.7
US Commodities 102.0 92.0 90.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday in range trading. Kansas City was higher but the other markets were a little lower. Trends remain mixed in all three markets. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 543, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 557, 568, and 575 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 578, 571, and 561 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 632, 629, and 618 May, and resistance is at 651, 658, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed mixed yesterday as the long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1818, 1792, and 1778 May and resistance is at 1907, 1916, and 1935 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Apr 17
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.40 14.80 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.92 16.06 0.00
Brokens 14.76 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower and Oats closed lower yesterday as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of better demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 344, 339, and 334 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal closed a little lower yesterday in response to reports of increased selling from Brazil based on lower values for the Real. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1140, 1128, and 1114 May, and resistance is at 1156, 1181, and 1193 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4420, 4360, and 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4730, and 4830 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 596.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 621.00, 637.00, and 645.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4040, 3920, and 3860 July, with resistance at 4180, 4220, and 4300 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast <ostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 53 May 175 May
50 May
63 May

May 55 May 165 May 50 May 59 May

June 49 July 135 July 45 July 57 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 940.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 925.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 905.00 -10.00 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 945.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May 930.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 910.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 790.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,250.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 327.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.791)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 153,045 lots, or 7.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,705 4,712 4,642 4,668 4,711 4,676 -35 73,791 59,747
Jul-24 4,728 4,728 4,644 4,667 4,723 4,675 -48 54,550 47,712
Sep-24 4,724 4,724 4,641 4,657 4,726 4,674 -52 22,163 30,742
Nov-24 4,657 4,661 4,585 4,595 4,672 4,616 -56 728 3,584
Jan-25 4,654 4,657 4,573 4,583 4,665 4,605 -60 1,625 3,943
Mar-25 4,643 4,644 4,560 4,569 4,653 4,576 -77 188 198
Corn
Turnover: 653,444 lots, or 1.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,382 2,384 2,370 2,381 2,386 2,377 -9 301,292 420,253
Jul-24 2,413 2,413 2,398 2,408 2,419 2,405 -14 230,399 559,604
Sep-24 2,437 2,442 2,428 2,433 2,447 2,433 -14 89,262 327,706
Nov-24 2,404 2,405 2,393 2,400 2,409 2,398 -11 9,560 43,143
Jan-25 2,393 2,394 2,376 2,390 2,396 2,386 -10 22,750 62,768
Mar-25 2,398 2,398 2,382 2,396 2,402 2,390 -12 181 966
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,468,554 lots, or 81.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,298 3,312 3,202 3,203 3,285 3,251 -34 195,582 280,590
Jul-24 3,308 3,325 3,214 3,215 3,303 3,250 -53 58,989 134,367
Aug-24 3,377 3,391 3,285 3,289 3,371 3,311 -60 21,848 52,495
Sep-24 3,380 3,395 3,285 3,287 3,377 3,326 -51 2,052,314 1,955,812
Nov-24 3,370 3,382 3,278 3,280 3,366 3,310 -56 10,539 37,074
Dec-24 3,390 3,403 3,305 3,306 3,393 3,332 -61 1,111 8,010
Jan-25 3,361 3,372 3,272 3,275 3,355 3,303 -52 124,412 313,732
Mar-25 3,268 3,276 3,198 3,202 3,261 3,225 -36 3,759 6,764
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,109,164 lots, or 83.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 8,026 8,098 7,808 7,890 8,086 7,962 -124 116,334 78,205
Jun-24 7,864 7,888 7,654 7,698 7,900 7,772 -128 9,642 10,816
Jul-24 7,724 7,754 7,510 7,554 7,770 7,624 -146 6,280 6,816
Aug-24 7,658 7,688 7,446 7,496 7,702 7,558 -144 1,155 976
Sep-24 7,570 7,634 7,392 7,458 7,644 7,522 -122 943,322 502,261
Oct-24 7,540 7,586 7,364 7,420 7,596 7,488 -108 613 505
Nov-24 7,498 7,534 7,328 7,394 7,540 7,436 -104 163 733
Dec-24 7,484 7,496 7,308 7,372 7,512 7,416 -96 160 456
Jan-25 7,426 7,468 7,274 7,338 7,462 7,374 -88 31,179 54,918
Feb-25 7,416 7,444 7,298 7,338 7,432 7,382 -50 72 143
Mar-25 7,396 7,432 7,280 7,322 7,432 7,366 -66 239 800
Apr-25 7,102 7,472 7,102 7,276 7,432 7,324 -108 5 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 707,380 lots, or 53.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,566 7,596 7,438 7,484 7,612 7,520 -92 63,963 78,946
Jul-24 7,516 7,540 7,410 7,452 7,568 7,468 -100 5,872 22,000
Aug-24 7,528 7,550 7,422 7,462 7,578 7,512 -66 2,790 15,647
Sep-24 7,548 7,578 7,440 7,486 7,598 7,514 -84 589,343 707,476
Nov-24 7,566 7,584 7,454 7,502 7,606 7,526 -80 3,373 8,902
Dec-24 7,608 7,630 7,510 7,560 7,664 7,586 -78 140 1,753
Jan-25 7,588 7,612 7,474 7,524 7,622 7,550 -72 41,525 96,224
Mar-25 7,566 7,576 7,450 7,504 7,582 7,524 -58 374 870
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322