Grains Report 04/15/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher last week in response to the supply and demand reports that showed higher than expected ending stocks estimates from USDA and additional fighting between Russia and Ukraine. Trends remain mixed in all three markets. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 575, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 634, 625, and 618 May, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 660 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 457,253
: Positions :
: 40,111 149,404 142,599 70,754 77,297 169,313 53,291 422,777 422,591: 34,476 34,662
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -13,835) :
: -2,359 -9,710 -2,591 877 11,936 -8,964 -14,004 -13,037 -14,368: -799 533
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 32.7 31.2 15.5 16.9 37.0 11.7 92.5 92.4: 7.5 7.6
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 107 119 81 75 48 34 279 270:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 298,227
: Positions :
: 26,464 90,252 83,898 63,229 69,009 104,312 32,348 277,903 275,508: 20,324 22,719
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -18,687) :
: -6,372 -3,689 -10,025 2,836 -3,285 -6,302 -3,125 -19,863 -20,124: 1,175 1,437
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 30.3 28.1 21.2 23.1 35.0 10.8 93.2 92.4: 6.8 7.6
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 40 67 67 64 65 42 23 187 185:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,078 :
: Positions :
: 40,449 17,027 2,526 123 797 7,967 35,074 4,433 1,791 839 4,919 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 :
: -1,822 1,725 -146 -314 -110 1,517 79 -997 470 -623 30 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.1 23.6 3.5 0.2 1.1 11.1 48.7 6.2 2.5 1.2 6.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 116 :
: 51 37 6 . . 10 27 11 10 5 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher as tzhe long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Futures were a little weaker at points during the week in reaction to the USDA supply and demand reports, but the rebound from the fund selling was more important. USDA cut domestic demand a lot but increased export demand for increased ending stocks levels. USDA also increased world ending stocks estimates for the year. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1748 May. Support is at 1659, 1632, and 1602 May and resistance is at 1751, 1760, and 1773 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,953 :
: Positions :
: 4,558 4,723 0 94 0 1,062 1,834 11 1,382 830 988 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 :
: 63 -995 0 94 0 -792 426 -248 289 21 18 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 45.8 47.5 0.0 0.9 0.0 10.7 18.4 0.1 13.9 8.3 9.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 58 :
: 18 16 0 . 0 5 9 . 15 4 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher and Oats closed higher last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. The USDA supply and demand reports showed reductions in Corn ending stocks in line with trade expectations but still over 20 billion bushels. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 165,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 344, 339, and 334 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,999,925
: Positions :
: 116,619 386,230 659,408 536,817 537,325 472,584 193,984 1,785,428 1,776,947: 214,497 222,978
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -56,600) :
: -15,532 -18,052 -16,242 3,301 486 -30,626 -19,170 -59,098 -52,978: 2,499 -3,622
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.8 19.3 33.0 26.8 26.9 23.6 9.7 89.3 88.9: 10.7 11.1
: Total Traders: 749 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 167 181 344 330 50 40 610 625:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 5,361 :
: Positions :
: 1,630 1,710 0 129 0 0 1,526 3 747 219 287 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 :
: 449 207 0 129 0 0 386 3 39 49 51 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.4 31.9 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 28.5 0.1 13.9 4.1 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 24 :
: 7 5 0 . 0 0 5 . 6 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week in response to the USDA supply and demand estimates that showed a greater increase in US ending stocks than the market had anticipated. South American production estimates were little changed. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1166, 1152, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1181, 1193, and 1207 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 325.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 35=7.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4550, 4520, and 4420 May, with resistance at 4730, 4830, and 4980 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,064,875
: Positions :
: 43,510 202,592 350,292 413,561 366,146 193,393 71,541 1,000,756 990,570: 64,120 74,305
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,089) :
: -5,224 -2,505 24,952 -3,000 -4,736 -10,333 -7,588 6,395 10,124: 3,695 -34
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.1 19.0 32.9 38.8 34.4 18.2 6.7 94.0 93.0: 6.0 7.0
: Total Traders: 534 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 171 189 181 189 48 27 443 463:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 627,222
: Positions :
: 55,408 113,196 181,063 188,963 271,503 170,525 32,913 595,958 598,674: 31,264 28,548
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -11,657) :
: -2,567 3,086 -17,321 17,114 8,434 -7,385 -7,486 -10,160 -13,286: -1,498 1,629
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 18.0 28.9 30.1 43.3 27.2 5.2 95.0 95.4: 5.0 4.6
: Total Traders: 338 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 94 108 99 98 44 26 271 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 09, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 547,271
: Positions :
: 48,750 93,689 147,511 171,993 235,613 123,636 36,862 491,890 513,674: 55,381 33,597
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 (Change in open interest: -11,423) :
: -5,661 -17,147 2,788 -4,572 16,534 -7,618 -12,581 -15,064 -10,407: 3,641 -1,016
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 17.1 27.0 31.4 43.1 22.6 6.7 89.9 93.9: 10.1 6.1
: Total Traders: 336 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 55 80 102 132 113 39 26 292 267:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and on demand concerns. It wqs lower today on ideas of demand weakness. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the USDA reports that showed plenty of oilseeds viable in the US and the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 617.00 and 596.00 May. Support is at 620.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 637.00, 645.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4130, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4330, 4440, and 4460 May.

DJ Malaysia April 1-15 Palm Oil Exports Up 28% on Month at 697,449 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ronnie Harui
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the April 1-15 period are estimated up 28% on month at 697,449 tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
April 1-15 March 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 210,663 150,413
RBD Palm Oil 107,434 66,110
RBD Palm Stearin 45,186 31,521
Crude Palm Oil 136,849 74,380
Total* 697,449 542,973
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,450 :
: Positions :
: 36,980 15,240 1,140 13,500 750 800 3,000 200 280 7,450 5,300 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 :
: 2,440 830 210 1,320 -160 0 680 0 40 -140 -120 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.4 33.5 2.5 29.7 1.7 1.8 6.6 0.4 0.6 16.4 11.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 32 :
: 8 11 . 4 . . . . . 11 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 9, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 276,092 :
: Positions :
: 206,498 116,648 1,767 2,820 4,861 7,338 92,765 29,148 8,944 12,165 14,772 :
: Changes from: April 2, 2024 :
: -19,321 -16,448 -222 528 8 -1,051 -5,123 -1,446 929 1,127 1,745 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 74.8 42.2 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.7 33.6 10.6 3.2 4.4 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 320 :
: 63 56 . 8 6 23 78 30 59 52 57 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast <ostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 55 May 60 May
60 May
65 May

May 57 May 60 May 80 May 65 May

June 50 July 45 July 56 July 58 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
May 947.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 922.50 -10.00 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 870.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 965.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
May 952.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 927.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 895.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 875.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 810.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,460.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 334.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7775)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 132,722 lots, or 6.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,749 4,761 4,707 4,722 4,776 4,738 -38 90,868 70,090
Jul-24 4,765 4,784 4,728 4,739 4,789 4,757 -32 27,013 47,360
Sep-24 4,796 4,796 4,737 4,746 4,796 4,765 -31 12,926 29,238
Nov-24 4,720 4,734 4,682 4,691 4,731 4,703 -28 807 3,605
Jan-25 4,715 4,728 4,677 4,683 4,720 4,696 -24 919 4,181
Mar-25 4,691 4,706 4,663 4,675 4,699 4,682 -17 189 221
Corn
Turnover: 614,850 lots, or 14.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,397 2,410 2,384 2,392 2,395 2,396 1 359,163 518,360
Jul-24 2,434 2,446 2,423 2,430 2,431 2,433 2 154,990 507,791
Sep-24 2,455 2,470 2,451 2,457 2,454 2,460 6 82,332 302,588
Nov-24 2,420 2,434 2,414 2,421 2,418 2,425 7 7,534 38,628
Jan-25 2,405 2,416 2,401 2,406 2,402 2,407 5 10,682 46,820
Mar-25 2,409 2,418 2,405 2,408 2,405 2,412 7 149 724
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,100,775 lots, or 70.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,233 3,273 3,233 3,261 3,201 3,260 59 236,367 378,979
Jul-24 3,251 3,295 3,251 3,284 3,218 3,282 64 62,173 134,508
Aug-24 3,329 3,368 3,329 3,351 3,288 3,351 63 22,093 54,297
Sep-24 3,335 3,370 3,335 3,357 3,291 3,355 64 1,682,370 1,976,988
Nov-24 3,318 3,350 3,318 3,343 3,278 3,339 61 9,429 36,263
Dec-24 3,330 3,371 3,330 3,364 3,301 3,359 58 1,033 8,001
Jan-25 3,306 3,342 3,306 3,334 3,273 3,330 57 84,881 292,894
Mar-25 3,222 3,251 3,220 3,241 3,197 3,239 42 2,429 5,639
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,420,464 lots, or 11.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 – – – 8,506 8,506 8,506 0 0 1,648
May-24 8,200 8,352 8,074 8,084 8,210 8,200 -10 162,376 127,056
Jun-24 8,020 8,158 7,918 7,928 8,024 8,024 0 9,338 10,068
Jul-24 7,948 8,070 7,790 7,812 7,920 7,890 -30 5,624 7,536
Aug-24 7,848 8,020 7,718 7,732 7,860 7,868 8 1,116 918
Sep-24 7,798 7,980 7,656 7,664 7,812 7,808 -4 1,207,811 497,318
Oct-24 7,740 7,920 7,618 7,618 7,734 7,752 18 501 469
Nov-24 7,676 7,854 7,570 7,582 7,660 7,730 70 328 651
Dec-24 7,656 7,816 7,532 7,544 7,620 7,704 84 357 431
Jan-25 7,616 7,774 7,494 7,516 7,582 7,602 20 30,607 50,996
Feb-25 7,614 7,712 7,478 7,480 7,588 7,632 44 196 122
Mar-25 7,606 7,698 7,450 7,488 7,596 7,586 -10 2,210 734
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 907,923 lots, or 69.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,646 7,786 7,610 7,638 7,624 7,688 64 96,101 121,410
Jul-24 7,622 7,776 7,600 7,610 7,588 7,656 68 8,683 20,352
Aug-24 7,648 7,794 7,612 7,620 7,640 7,716 76 4,888 15,734
Sep-24 7,660 7,816 7,630 7,644 7,626 7,704 78 760,834 707,156
Nov-24 7,654 7,820 7,640 7,650 7,642 7,712 70 2,313 7,583
Dec-24 7,716 7,858 7,688 7,696 7,690 7,746 56 229 1,709
Jan-25 7,688 7,828 7,648 7,664 7,648 7,708 60 34,137 80,127
Mar-25 7,654 7,774 7,606 7,622 7,628 7,706 78 738 630
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322