Grains Report 04/10/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA
Average Range USDA March 2022-2023
Corn 2,105 1,967-2,191 2,172 1,360
Soybeans 319 300-358 315 264
Wheat 685 670-720 673 570
****
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA March USDA 2022-23
Corn 317.0 314.0-319.1 319.6 301.6
Soybeans 112.6 110.0-114.8 114.3 102.2
Wheat 258.6 256.5-260.0 258.8 271.1
****
2023-24 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2022-23
Corn 122.1 118.0-124.2 124.0 137.0
Soybeans 151.7 148.0-155.0 155.0 162.0
2023-24 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA March USDA 2022-23
Corn 55.3 54.0-56.0 56.0 36.0
Soybeans 50.2 49.5-51.2 50.0 25.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower with little fresh news yesterday. Trends remain mixed in all three markets. The USDA reports released a week ago were considered friendly. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. The weekly condition report yesterday showed good conditions and the weekly export sales report last week was poor. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 575, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 595, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 639, 634, and 625 May, and resistance is at 655, 660, and 677 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher and showed indications that the liquidation phase has been completed. Futures turned sideways after the big move lower. Trends are mixed in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turning drier and warmer in the US this week and fieldwork should become active.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1690 and 1748 May. Support is at 1632, 1602, and 1588 May and resistance is at 1670, 1704, and 1751 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 448, 459, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 328, 322, and 316 May, and resistance is at 349, 353, and 359 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News: Unknown destunations boughzt 2a54,000 tons pf US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1165, 1153, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1207, 1211, and 1217 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 331.00, 325.00, and 323.00 May, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4730, 4690, and 4640 May, with resistance at 4980, 5000, and 5030 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday today. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was a little higher in what appeared to be quiet trading.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 645.00, 652.00, and 657.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4460 and 4650 June. Support is at 4260, 4200, and 4130 May, with resistance at 4440, 4460, and 4490 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 55 May 60 May
60 May
65 May

May 57 May 60 May 80 May 65 May

June 50 July 45 July 56 July 58 July

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322