Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
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AgMaster Report 04/10/2024
JULY CORN
As is evident from the above chart, May Corn has been confined to a 30 cent range (420-450) since Mar 1! The friendly news such as the 3-28-24 Stocks/Seeding Report with an acres estimate 4.6 million acres less than 2023 & positive weekly export inspections & sales push the mkt up towards the top end & negative news such as planting pressure & rains for the dry areas pressure the mkt down to the 420 support! This week is another with sparse fresh news – as the mkt anticipates the onset of active planting after mid-April & the USDA April WASDE REPORT due out at 11am on Thur 4-11-24! Until then, the mkt will continue to chop around as traders “even up” in front of the report!
JULY BEANS
July Beans – much like its sister mkt July Corn – is range-bound (1185-1230) amid lackluster trade – as the mkt awaits updates from the USDA & CONAD on Thursday morning! Planting weather has been benign but some areas have been subject to flooding! Most producers seed corn first – with the wheels expected to roll in the 2nd half of April! Export interest has been meager but has been offset by strong domestic biodiesel demand! The fund short position is still sizeable – & the mkt is nearly $3.00 off its 2023 highs – so there is little margin for error for the US crops this Summer & Fall! South American production continues to ratchet down!
JULY WHT
July Wht has been slowly grinding higher since early Mar – occasionally buoyed by geopolitical issues from the escalating Russian-Ukraine War & dryness in the US Southwest plains! However, sluggish exports running 11% under 2023 & a 56% Gd-Ex crop rating has kept the wraps on recent rallies! Spring Wht planting is 3% in! Just like corn & beans, wht anxiously awaits the USDA’s April WASDE on Thur at 11am!
JUNE CAT
June Cattle topped out in late March – breaking $14 (186-172) due to a convergence of negatives including higher weights & slaughters, demand drying up in response to elevated prices, a bearish March Cattle-on-Feed Report – reflecting 10% more placements & finally the occurrence of Bird Flu in some dairy cattle prompting demand fears! As often happens, the break was overdone – especially as the Bird Flu news waned & the mkt recovered $5 of the plummet! The onset of the “grilling season” – the meats best demand period – will help stabilize June Cattle & cause them to consolidate well off their recent lows!
JUNE HOGS
June Hogs unabashedly took over the “upside leadership role” in the meats by staging a remarkable, meteoric $9 rally (100-109) since Mar 1 – including 7 consecutive higher closes! The move was spawned by several positives – a bullishly construed Pig Crop Report on Mar 28 where Farrowing Intentions implied lower supplies, a bird flu epidemic which transferred some demand from suspect beef to much cheaper pork & finally the advent of the best demand season of the year – when everyone pulls out their grills! However, the mkt has rallied into “overbought territory” -accumulating a big premium to cash – & is due for a correction soon!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337