Grains Report 04/08/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed last week, with SRW and Spring Wheat higher but HRW lower. Trends turned up in SRW but remain mixed in HRW and Spring The USDA reports released a week ago were considered friendly. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. The weekly condition report a week ago showed good conditions and the weekly export sales report was poor. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 590 and 618 May. Support is at 560, 539, and 537 May, with resistance at 575, 580, and 584 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 594, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 646, 640, and 634 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 471,089
: Positions :
: 42,470 159,114 145,189 69,876 65,361 178,278 67,295 435,814 436,959: 35,275 34,129
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,074) :
: -3,056 -1,145 7,916 -2,521 -1,416 3,812 1,064 6,150 6,419: -76 -344
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 33.8 30.8 14.8 13.9 37.8 14.3 92.5 92.8: 7.5 7.2
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 116 110 85 73 47 37 274 273:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 316,914
: Positions :
: 32,836 93,941 93,923 60,392 72,294 110,614 35,474 297,766 295,632: 19,148 21,282
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 21,314) :
: 1,911 1,975 15,980 -1,188 -2,984 4,463 4,852 21,166 19,823: 148 1,491
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 29.6 29.6 19.1 22.8 34.9 11.2 94.0 93.3: 6.0 6.7
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 63 67 63 71 42 27 186 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,554 :
: Positions :
: 42,271 15,302 2,672 437 907 6,451 34,995 5,430 1,321 1,462 4,889 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 :
: 6,526 670 55 164 256 -940 2,614 -1,159 3 794 160 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.5 20.8 3.6 0.6 1.2 8.8 47.6 7.4 1.8 2.0 6.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 115 :
: 49 30 6 . 5 7 30 10 8 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week after making new lows for the move and testing important support near 1600 May. Futures turned sideways after the big move lower. Trends are mixed in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turning drier and warmer in the US this week and fieldwork should become active.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1602, 1588, and 1576 May and resistance is at 1670, 1704, and 1751 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,580 :
: Positions :
: 4,495 5,718 0 0 0 1,854 1,408 259 1,094 809 969 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 :
: 537 -1,126 0 0 0 -698 301 140 87 -3 258 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.5 54.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 13.3 2.4 10.3 7.6 9.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 59 :
: 17 15 0 0 0 8 10 . 14 4 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower last week as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. This might not be true as it is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now. USDA issued its first crop progress report for Corn early last week. The USDA reports released more than a week ago showed inventories and planting ideas below trade expectations. USDA said that plantings should be just 90 million acres and that inventories are estimated at 8.347 billion bushels. The plantings intentions report was especially bullish for Corn prices. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might start next week. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have firmed a little bit in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 448, 459, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 328, 322, and 316 May, and resistance is at 349, 353, and 359 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,056,525
: Positions :
: 132,151 404,282 675,650 533,517 536,839 503,209 213,154 1,844,526 1,829,925: 211,999 226,600
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 38,703) :
: -7,920 7,693 33,175 937 -2,331 6,913 -941 33,105 37,596: 5,598 1,107
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.4 19.7 32.9 25.9 26.1 24.5 10.4 89.7 89.0: 10.3 11.0
: Total Traders: 742 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 166 177 342 324 52 42 606 619:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,142 :
: Positions :
: 1,181 1,503 0 0 0 0 1,140 0 708 170 236 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.5 36.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 0.0 17.1 4.1 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 7 6 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 . 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed a little lower last week and Soybean Oil was a little higher after all three markets absorbed some early week selling pressure. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1165, 1153, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1202, 1211, and 1217 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4730, and 4690 May, with resistance at 4980, 5000, and 5030 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,054,786
: Positions :
: 48,735 205,097 325,339 416,561 370,881 203,726 79,129 994,361 980,447: 60,425 74,339
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 32,123) :
: -3,518 843 13,915 20,779 14,227 414 2,844 31,591 31,829: 532 294
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.6 19.4 30.8 39.5 35.2 19.3 7.5 94.3 93.0: 5.7 7.0
: Total Traders: 533 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 168 187 182 188 51 29 445 457:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 638,880
: Positions :
: 57,974 110,109 198,384 171,849 263,069 177,910 40,399 606,117 611,961: 32,762 26,919
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 15,805) :
: 4,185 2,815 8,557 -1,990 2,824 1,596 166 12,349 14,362: 3,457 1,443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 17.2 31.1 26.9 41.2 27.8 6.3 94.9 95.8: 5.1 4.2
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 83 104 94 96 45 24 273 258:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 02, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 558,695
: Positions :
: 54,411 110,836 144,723 176,565 219,079 131,255 49,443 506,954 524,081: 51,741 34,613
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,305) :
: -1,793 8,296 3,543 8,795 -1,640 3,660 2,121 14,205 12,320: 101 1,985
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 19.8 25.9 31.6 39.2 23.5 8.8 90.7 93.8: 9.3 6.2
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 91 93 128 108 41 26 287 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on strong export data for the month from private sources. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was higher last week in line with rallies in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Plam Oil. There were reports of good growing conditions in Argentina. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4460 and 4650 June. Support is at 4300, 4270, and 4200 May, with resistance at 4440, 4460, and 4490 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,040 :
: Positions :
: 34,540 14,410 930 12,180 910 800 2,320 200 240 7,590 5,420 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 :
: -1,730 -2,741 130 -1,738 -380 0 1,280 -480 20 1,619 -1,739 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 80.3 33.5 2.2 28.3 2.1 1.9 5.4 0.5 0.6 17.6 12.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 32 :
: 8 11 . 4 . . . . . 11 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 2, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 295,472 :
: Positions :
: 225,819 133,095 1,988 2,292 4,853 8,389 97,888 30,594 8,015 11,038 13,028 :
: Changes from: March 26, 2024 :
: -4,618 -1,319 -458 -184 63 271 -5,462 251 -1,461 842 113 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.4 45.0 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.8 33.1 10.4 2.7 3.7 4.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 309 :
: 59 52 4 7 6 26 76 22 61 45 50 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 55 May 60 May
60 May
65 May

May 57 May 60 May 80 May 65 May

June 50 July 45 July 56 July 58 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 987.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 962.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 945.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 907.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 890.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 992.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May 967.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 912.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 895.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 990.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 820.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,530.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 341.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.75)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,111 lots, or 5.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,775 4,811 4,770 4,806 4,787 4,795 8 77,457 98,341
Jul-24 4,804 4,826 4,785 4,824 4,792 4,811 19 21,001 36,447
Sep-24 4,780 4,805 4,761 4,803 4,770 4,788 18 11,793 21,874
Nov-24 4,718 4,728 4,696 4,724 4,708 4,713 5 322 3,126
Jan-25 4,690 4,698 4,668 4,696 4,676 4,683 7 428 3,302
Mar-25 4,663 4,673 4,646 4,666 4,643 4,660 17 110 148
Corn
Turnover: 556,586 lots, or 13.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,423 2,425 2,404 2,419 2,435 2,413 -22 387,247 623,799
Jul-24 2,455 2,455 2,439 2,449 2,461 2,445 -16 109,087 404,641
Sep-24 2,463 2,464 2,447 2,459 2,467 2,454 -13 50,801 256,079
Nov-24 2,411 2,416 2,400 2,411 2,418 2,408 -10 3,620 35,699
Jan-25 2,394 2,397 2,382 2,393 2,398 2,389 -9 5,746 42,087
Mar-25 2,398 2,398 2,382 2,395 2,398 2,390 -8 85 647
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,117,631 lots, or 36.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,233 3,262 3,227 3,244 3,210 3,244 34 221,028 698,229
Jul-24 3,250 3,274 3,243 3,256 3,220 3,256 36 38,898 116,690
Aug-24 3,309 3,350 3,309 3,329 3,298 3,334 36 5,339 35,692
Sep-24 3,315 3,346 3,306 3,323 3,291 3,327 36 805,533 1,690,520
Nov-24 3,296 3,320 3,287 3,301 3,276 3,306 30 4,875 34,236
Dec-24 3,303 3,336 3,303 3,319 3,303 3,321 18 798 8,235
Jan-25 3,267 3,295 3,265 3,274 3,245 3,279 34 40,101 287,912
Mar-25 3,195 3,211 3,184 3,188 3,171 3,197 26 1,059 5,734
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,153,484 lots, or 9.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,496 8,496 8,496 8,496 8,320 8,496 176 1 1,648
May-24 8,518 8,528 8,202 8,218 8,474 8,342 -132 716,170 296,744
Jun-24 8,416 8,416 8,042 8,060 8,242 8,164 -78 8,232 7,400
Jul-24 8,194 8,194 7,906 7,936 8,102 8,026 -76 1,565 4,466
Aug-24 8,070 8,070 7,810 7,858 8,010 7,954 -56 1,285 723
Sep-24 7,990 7,998 7,724 7,788 7,924 7,860 -64 405,095 338,742
Oct-24 7,888 7,888 7,662 7,708 7,836 7,786 -50 414 418
Nov-24 7,822 7,822 7,614 7,650 7,742 7,720 -22 192 512
Dec-24 7,744 7,746 7,572 7,608 7,708 7,676 -32 189 408
Jan-25 7,700 7,730 7,522 7,554 7,666 7,620 -46 19,922 38,124
Feb-25 7,704 7,720 7,550 7,578 7,708 7,618 -90 47 265
Mar-25 7,744 7,756 7,566 7,610 7,748 7,658 -90 372 1,515
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 662,872 lots, or 51.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,900 7,900 7,726 7,736 7,884 7,810 -74 204,572 270,319
Jul-24 7,876 7,880 7,714 7,724 7,868 7,784 -84 5,897 17,843
Aug-24 7,840 7,848 7,714 7,718 7,856 7,762 -94 1,152 4,302
Sep-24 7,814 7,838 7,690 7,698 7,822 7,762 -60 427,315 656,750
Nov-24 7,806 7,806 7,670 7,676 7,796 7,734 -62 1,138 7,270
Dec-24 7,834 7,834 7,716 7,728 7,840 7,786 -54 210 1,805
Jan-25 7,842 7,842 7,690 7,696 7,816 7,764 -52 22,352 62,930
Mar-25 7,756 7,790 7,670 7,682 7,788 7,736 -52 236 568
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322