Grains Report 04/01/2024

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Grain, Soybean Prospective Planting
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s U.S. Grain,
Soybean Prospective Planting reports and how the
government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts
in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
2024
Thursday’s
Estimates Average Range USDA 2023
Corn 90.036 92.032 90.0-93.8 94.641
Soybeans 86.510 86.309 84.3-88.0 83.600
All Wheat 47.498 47.655 46.6-50.0 49.575
Winter Wheat 34.135 35.131 34.0-38.4 36.699
Spring Wheat 11.335 10.893 10.1-11.3 11.200
Durum Wheat 2.028 1.669 1.1-1.9 1.676

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Quarterly Grain Stocks
The following are key numbers from the USDA’s Quarterly Grain, Soybean
Stockpiles and how the government’s estimates compared with analysts’
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. Stockpiles on Mar. 1, 2024 (million bushels)
Thursday’s USDA USDA
Estimate Average Range Mar. 2023 Dec. 2023
Corn 8,347 8,439 8,129-8,700 7,396 12,171
Soybeans 1,845 1,832 1,740-1,986 1,687 3,001
Wheat 1,087 1,053 997-1,081 941 1,421

USDA HOGS AND PIGS REPORT
MARCH 28, 2024

Ranges Average Actual
All hogs March 1 98.8-100.9 100 101
Kept for breeding 95.2-98 96.5 98
Kept for market 99-101.3 100.3 101

Pig crop
December-February 100.4-102.5 101 102

Weight Groups
Under 50 lbs 99.3-102.4 101 101
50-119 lbs 97.9-102.3 99.9 101
120-179 lbs 97-101 99.7 100
Over 180 lbs 98.8-101.6 100.1 99

Farrowings
December-February 97.7-98.4 98.1 97

Farrowing intentions
March-May 95.8-98.9 97.7 99
June-August 95.3-100.6 97.8 98

Pigs per litter
December-February 102.5- 104.4 103.4 105

11.38 11.53 ( in 2023 11.02)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed last week, with SRW higher but the other markets lower. The USDA reports were considered friendly for Wheat prices, but futures closed mostly lower anyway and were led lower by Minneapolis. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. The problems with Russian Wheat exporter RiF continue. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult for the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 549, 539, and 537 May, with resistance at 572, 580, and 584 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 581, 572, and 569 May, with resistance at 594, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 644, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 669, and 677 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower last week and at new lows for the move every day. Trends are down in this market. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1624, 1612, and 1600 May and resistance is at 1678, 1744, and 1751 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on Friday and Corn closed higher for the week in reaction to the USDA reports that showed inventories and planting ideas below trade expectations. USDQ said that plantings should be just 90 million acres and that inventories are estimated at 8.347 billion bushels. The plantings intentions report was especially bullish for Corn prices. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might start next week. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 411 and 395 May. Support is at 422, 408, and 406 May, and resistance is at 432, 438, and 441 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed slightly lower last week in reaction to the USDA reports that showed slightly higher quarterly stocks and planting intentions when compared to expectations. USDA said that the stocks were 1.845 billion bushels and that farmers would plant 86.5 million acres of Soybeans. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. \Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1217, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 333.00, 326.00, and 320.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4630 and 4430 May. Support is at 4730, 4690, and 4640 May, with resistance at 4840, 4910, and 4980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of increasing world supplies of vegetable oils. Prices moved higher today on strong export data for the month from private sources. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Canola was lower last week and rends started to turn down on the daily reports. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 617.00 and 596.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4070 and 3920 June. Support is at 4130, 4050, and 4000 May, with resistance at 4220, 4280, and 4310 May.

DJ Malaysia March 1-31 Palm Oil Exports Rose 29% on Month to 1,292,130 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the March 1-31 period are estimated up 29% on month at 1,292,130 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Monday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
March 1-31 February 1-29
RBD Palm Olein 413,601 301,236
RBD Palm Oil 139,780 105,282
RBD Palm Stearin 85,758 83,119
Crude Palm Oil 246,927 237,815
Total* 1,292,130 1,000,348
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showres and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 992.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 997.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May 965.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 955.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 905.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 882.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 980.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 820.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,440.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 337.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7288)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,243 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,761 4,785 4,735 4,770 4,757 4,755 -2 94,450 96,843
Jul-24 4,747 4,784 4,731 4,779 4,752 4,762 10 14,555 27,200
Sep-24 4,740 4,763 4,708 4,759 4,730 4,741 11 17,266 20,847
Nov-24 4,669 4,704 4,656 4,700 4,673 4,686 13 319 2,997
Jan-25 4,645 4,678 4,632 4,677 4,653 4,660 7 611 3,609
Mar-25 4,616 4,654 4,616 4,645 4,627 4,639 12 42 123
Corn
Turnover: 649,113 lots, or 15.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,410 2,427 2,407 2,426 2,415 2,416 1 428,162 732,412
Jul-24 2,440 2,455 2,429 2,455 2,438 2,441 3 104,001 365,890
Sep-24 2,447 2,463 2,434 2,461 2,444 2,446 2 77,051 249,676
Nov-24 2,405 2,417 2,391 2,415 2,409 2,398 -11 12,852 34,456
Jan-25 2,395 2,398 2,381 2,397 2,394 2,388 -6 26,898 41,138
Mar-25 2,388 2,400 2,384 2,400 2,397 2,389 -8 149 590
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,838,145 lots, or 60.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,255 3,287 3,228 3,286 3,239 3,260 21 858,876 949,744
Jul-24 3,260 3,289 3,234 3,287 3,242 3,264 22 38,444 90,892
Aug-24 3,336 3,358 3,311 3,357 3,311 3,339 28 6,411 33,867
Sep-24 3,326 3,351 3,302 3,351 3,307 3,331 24 868,192 1,497,130
Nov-24 3,296 3,333 3,287 3,331 3,288 3,314 26 10,842 35,744
Dec-24 3,317 3,332 3,293 3,332 3,306 3,320 14 2,061 8,891
Jan-25 3,285 3,304 3,264 3,301 3,282 3,290 8 52,196 262,234
Mar-25 3,208 3,223 3,186 3,214 3,199 3,208 9 1,123 4,936
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,069,280 lots, or 86.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,400 8,400 8,380 8,380 8,238 8,390 152 2 1,650
May-24 8,232 8,338 8,124 8,328 8,094 8,240 146 825,139 404,334
Jun-24 7,984 8,088 7,898 8,082 7,860 8,008 148 4,364 4,523
Jul-24 7,858 7,938 7,764 7,928 7,748 7,872 124 1,776 3,814
Aug-24 7,768 7,840 7,670 7,832 7,644 7,768 124 458 791
Sep-24 7,676 7,742 7,580 7,738 7,566 7,676 110 222,469 273,861
Oct-24 7,466 7,648 7,466 7,646 7,466 7,568 102 221 324
Nov-24 7,450 7,572 7,450 7,570 7,450 7,506 56 263 486
Dec-24 7,440 7,538 7,410 7,530 7,422 7,484 62 91 323
Jan-25 7,410 7,508 7,336 7,496 7,354 7,446 92 13,563 27,507
Feb-25 7,386 7,516 7,338 7,516 7,292 7,438 146 165 237
Mar-25 7,366 7,568 7,320 7,558 7,292 7,456 164 769 741
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 664,329 lots, or 51.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,780 7,836 7,698 7,832 7,710 7,778 68 385,973 430,041
Jul-24 7,762 7,820 7,680 7,820 7,688 7,766 78 4,361 19,018
Aug-24 7,746 7,808 7,672 7,804 7,664 7,746 82 584 4,271
Sep-24 7,704 7,778 7,632 7,774 7,632 7,716 84 258,999 520,969
Nov-24 7,672 7,742 7,608 7,738 7,612 7,676 64 1,165 7,538
Dec-24 7,788 7,788 7,670 7,774 7,664 7,722 58 143 1,841
Jan-25 7,696 7,760 7,612 7,756 7,630 7,702 72 13,047 53,770
Mar-25 7,646 7,706 7,604 7,692 7,618 7,660 42 57 85
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322