Grains Report 03/27/2024

DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2024 (million bushels)
USDA USDA
Average Range Mar. 23 Dec. 2023
Corn 8,439 8,129-8,700 7,396 12,169
Soybeans 1,832 1,740-1,986 1,687 3,000
Wheat 1,053 997-1,081 941 1,410
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 8,450 1,740 1,029
Allendale 8,129 1,986 1,047
Doane 8,436 1,840 1,050
Grain Cycles 8,475 1,795 997
Linn Group 8,472 1,777 1,069
Sid Love Consulting 8,568 1,864 1,076
Marex 8,700 1,856 1,080
Midland Research 8,530 1,765 1,065
Northstar 8,500 1,805 1,040
Ocean State Research 8,445 1,929 1,081
Prime Ag 8,350 1,825 1,025
Risk Mgmt Commodities 8,245 1,777 1,071
RJ O’Brien 8,438 1,852 1,078
StoneX 8,409 1,853 1,062
U.S. Commodities 8,380 1,840 1,045
Vantage RM 8,500 1,800 1,030

DJ Survey: 2024 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
Average Range USDA 2023
Corn 92.032 90.0-93.8 94.641
Soybeans 86.309 84.3-88.0 83.600
All Wheat 47.655 46.6-50.0 49.575
Winter Wheat 35.131 34.0-38.4 36.699
Spring Wheat 10.893 10.1-11.3 11.200
Durum Wheat 1.669 1.1-1.9 1.676
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat Wheat Wheat
AgriSompo North America 90.8 87.6 47.0 35.3 10.1 1.6
Allendale 93.5 85.8 47.6 34.7 11.2 1.7
Doane 91.8 86.8 47.1 34.4 10.9 1.8
Farm Futures 92.4 86.0 50.0 38.4 10.5 1.1
Grain Cycles 92.1 85.5 47.4 34.8 10.9 1.7
Linn Group 92.2 87.0 47.5 34.8 11.0 1.7
Sid Love Consulting 90.0 88.0 46.6 34.0 10.8 1.8
Marex 91.5 87.0 47.3 34.4 11.1 1.8
Midland Research 92.3 85.8 47.6 34.6 11.3 1.7
Midwest Market Solutions 93.8 84.3 49.8 36.8 11.1 1.9
Northstar 92.0 85.8 48.0 35.1 11.2 1.7
Ocean State Research 92.2 87.0 47.5 35.0 10.8 1.7
Prime Ag 92.5 86.5 47.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 91.0 86.5 47.8 35.5 10.7 1.6
RJ O’Brien 92.0 86.5 47.2 34.7 10.8 1.7
StoneX 92.1 85.6 47.0 34.7 10.5 1.7
U.S. Commodities 92.0 86.0 48.0 35.5 11.0 1.5
Vantage RM 92.5 86.0 47.5 34.6 11.2 1.7

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday as the market corrected after news reports of a dispute between the Russian government and a private exporter named Rif seen the previous day. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 560, 567, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 590, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 645, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 669, and 677 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and at new lows for the move, but recovered from its worst losses of the day in the second half of the session. Trends are down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1672, 1660, and 1648 May and resistance is at 1718, 1744, and 1751 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 27
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.70 14.98 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.20 16.25 0.00
Brokens 14.94 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday. Corn was weaker on ideas that the stocks report on Thursday will show ample supplies for this year and that the planting intentions report will show that ample supplies will likely continue well into next year. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 441, 446, and 448 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 376 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday before the USDA reports are released on Thursday. Some buying was tied to forecasts for very dry weather in southern Brazil that could hurt developing crops. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. \Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1217, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4760, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 4980, 6000, and 5030 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on price action in Chicago. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower yesterday. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 631.00, 619.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4050, and 4000 May, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4360 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 965.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 945.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 930.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 872.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 855.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 970.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
May 950.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jun 935.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 877.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 800.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,300.00 -80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 327.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7325)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 124,521 lots, or 5.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,735 4,754 4,717 4,731 4,764 4,733 -31 99,374 97,466
Jul-24 4,715 4,735 4,699 4,716 4,747 4,713 -34 11,001 20,436
Sep-24 4,721 4,721 4,674 4,695 4,731 4,692 -39 13,406 21,329
Nov-24 4,671 4,671 4,627 4,643 4,680 4,645 -35 291 2,901
Jan-25 4,632 4,642 4,603 4,622 4,653 4,620 -33 423 3,581
Mar-25 4,616 4,616 4,589 4,601 4,630 4,603 -27 26 99
Corn
Turnover: 497,570 lots, or 11.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,383 2,398 2,381 2,384 2,388 2,387 -1 366,780 879,199
Jul-24 2,412 2,425 2,407 2,410 2,414 2,412 -2 71,807 338,479
Sep-24 2,423 2,436 2,420 2,423 2,429 2,425 -4 39,251 238,656
Nov-24 2,405 2,413 2,401 2,403 2,406 2,406 0 14,268 28,978
Jan-25 2,385 2,396 2,384 2,389 2,389 2,389 0 5,406 30,945
Mar-25 2,386 2,395 2,386 2,391 2,392 2,389 -3 58 451
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,882,571 lots, or 61.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,257 3,276 3,233 3,261 3,261 3,254 -7 1,121,250 1,184,432
Jul-24 3,242 3,269 3,225 3,252 3,244 3,245 1 33,078 84,813
Aug-24 3,304 3,337 3,294 3,321 3,301 3,311 10 7,617 31,541
Sep-24 3,295 3,329 3,282 3,311 3,290 3,301 11 670,798 1,281,524
Nov-24 3,271 3,308 3,263 3,291 3,271 3,279 8 5,367 41,459
Dec-24 3,290 3,324 3,284 3,309 3,290 3,299 9 959 10,332
Jan-25 3,267 3,302 3,259 3,288 3,267 3,275 8 42,478 257,329
Mar-25 3,195 3,226 3,195 3,211 3,209 3,209 0 1,024 4,427
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,270,213 lots, or 10.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,398 8,422 8,200 8,214 8,416 8,338 -78 188 1,760
May-24 8,274 8,336 8,088 8,130 8,328 8,214 -114 1,072,387 448,019
Jun-24 8,004 8,052 7,838 7,868 8,044 7,946 -98 5,983 4,731
Jul-24 7,866 7,900 7,706 7,742 7,896 7,790 -106 975 3,477
Aug-24 7,736 7,782 7,614 7,626 7,804 7,698 -106 805 742
Sep-24 7,626 7,660 7,492 7,512 7,682 7,572 -110 179,958 222,573
Oct-24 7,528 7,554 7,402 7,424 7,588 7,480 -108 267 381
Nov-24 7,458 7,468 7,356 7,366 7,498 7,390 -108 124 443
Dec-24 7,420 7,420 7,310 7,320 7,448 7,346 -102 39 237
Jan-25 7,380 7,390 7,264 7,276 7,402 7,312 -90 9,324 19,959
Feb-25 7,340 7,356 7,240 7,248 7,382 7,296 -86 87 101
Mar-25 7,326 7,342 7,220 7,258 7,376 7,278 -98 76 132
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 759,409 lots, or 58.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,786 7,800 7,662 7,684 7,852 7,728 -124 535,445 520,524
Jul-24 7,736 7,752 7,620 7,632 7,800 7,680 -120 3,603 18,039
Aug-24 7,720 7,736 7,600 7,608 7,770 7,664 -106 825 4,297
Sep-24 7,696 7,704 7,564 7,570 7,750 7,626 -124 209,575 444,383
Nov-24 7,654 7,672 7,538 7,544 7,730 7,600 -130 760 7,737
Dec-24 7,704 7,704 7,600 7,600 7,780 7,646 -134 35 1,808
Jan-25 7,678 7,692 7,560 7,562 7,748 7,624 -124 9,121 50,502
Mar-25 7,606 7,642 7,540 7,546 7,710 7,590 -120 45 123
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322