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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 03/26/2024

By On March 26, 2024 - 12:09 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Mar 25
WA_GR101
Washington, DC    Mon   Mar 25, 2024   USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 21, 2024
                            — METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS
             ———– WEEK ENDING ———-  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      03/21/2024  03/14/2024  03/23/2023    TO DATE     TO DATE
BARLEY              0         122           0        1,936        2,154
CORN        1,227,955   1,326,287     688,379   24,408,375   18,271,082
FLAXSEED            0           0           0           24          200
MIXED               0           0           0           73            0
OATS                0           0           0        3,994        6,486
RYE                 0           0           0           72            0
SORGHUM         6,025     192,459     177,356    3,829,817    1,092,018
SOYBEANS      768,711     700,245     892,943   36,550,164   44,956,654
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0        4,109        2,408
WHEAT         315,395     394,479     403,877   14,166,669   16,690,932
Total       2,318,086   2,613,592   2,162,555   78,965,233   81,021,934
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Mar 25
    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 63.824 million pounds, in February, 2.2% above the previous
month, and 10.1% below February 2023, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
    In thousand pounds.
                                                                   public
                       Feb 29     Jan 31     Feb 28      Jan 31   warehouse
                         2024       2024       2023       2023   stocks/Feb
pork bellies           63,824     62,425     71,011     69,991
orange juice          255,683    258,001    272,890    288,548
french fries          950,334    931,994  1,037,887  1,026,236
other potatoes        238,583    227,605    240,196    230,418
chicken rstr (whole)   11,151     12,507     13,062     13,708
ham                    69,702     74,875     85,278     78,594
total pork            456,499    463,305    521,606    519,145     396,421
total beef            442,751    471,261    500,783    535,158     424,377
total red meat        920,039    955,925  1,053,675  1,081,448     840,601
total chicken         788,051    829,182    865,786    889,545
total turkey          330,378    301,791    317,477    289,596
total poultry       1,121,025  1,133,440  1,185,774  1,181,485   1,033,254
===============================================================================
DJ Survey: Mar. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
  NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for March 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Stockpiles on March 1, 2024 (million bushels)
                                              USDA       USDA
                       Average     Range     Mar. 23    Dec. 2023
Corn                    8,439   8,129-8,700   7,396      12,169
Soybeans                1,832   1,740-1,986   1,687       3,000
Wheat                   1,053     997-1,081     941       1,410
                         Corn    Soybeans     Wheat
AgriSompo North America 8,450      1,740      1,029
Allendale               8,129      1,986      1,047
Doane                   8,436      1,840      1,050
Grain Cycles            8,475      1,795       997
Linn Group              8,472      1,777      1,069
Sid Love Consulting     8,568      1,864      1,076
Marex                   8,700      1,856      1,080
Midland Research        8,530      1,765      1,065
Northstar               8,500      1,805      1,040
Ocean State Research    8,445      1,929      1,081
Prime Ag                8,350      1,825      1,025
Risk Mgmt Commodities   8,245      1,777      1,071
RJ O’Brien              8,438      1,852      1,078
StoneX                  8,409      1,853      1,062
U.S. Commodities        8,380      1,840      1,045
Vantage RM              8,500      1,800      1,030
DJ Survey: 2024 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting
  NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planting, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Thursday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planting (million acres)
                           Average     Range    USDA 2023
Corn                       92.032    90.0-93.8   94.641
Soybeans                   86.309    84.3-88.0   83.600
All Wheat                  47.655    46.6-50.0   49.575
Winter Wheat               35.131    34.0-38.4   36.699
Spring Wheat               10.893    10.1-11.3   11.200
Durum Wheat                 1.669     1.1-1.9     1.676
                                                   Winter Spring  Durum
                            Corn  Soybeans  Wheat   Wheat  Wheat  Wheat
AgriSompo North America     90.8    87.6     47.0    35.3   10.1    1.6
Allendale                   93.5    85.8     47.6    34.7   11.2    1.7
Doane                       91.8    86.8     47.1    34.4   10.9    1.8
Farm Futures                92.4    86.0     50.0    38.4   10.5    1.1
Grain Cycles                92.1    85.5     47.4    34.8   10.9    1.7
Linn Group                  92.2    87.0     47.5    34.8   11.0    1.7
Sid Love Consulting         90.0    88.0     46.6    34.0   10.8    1.8
Marex                       91.5    87.0     47.3    34.4   11.1    1.8
Midland Research            92.3    85.8     47.6    34.6   11.3    1.7
Midwest Market Solutions    93.8    84.3     49.8    36.8   11.1    1.9
Northstar                   92.0    85.8     48.0    35.1   11.2    1.7
Ocean State Research        92.2    87.0     47.5    35.0   10.8    1.7
Prime Ag                    92.5    86.5     47.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities       91.0    86.5     47.8    35.5   10.7    1.6
RJ O’Brien                  92.0    86.5     47.2    34.7   10.8    1.7
StoneX                      92.1    85.6     47.0    34.7   10.5    1.7
U.S. Commodities            92.0    86.0     48.0    35.5   11.0    1.5
Vantage RM                  92.5    86.0     47.5    34.6   11.2    1.7
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat was a little higher yesterday on news reports of a dispute between the Russian government and a private exporter named Rif.  The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far.  The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government.  Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price.  It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures.  USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week.  Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.  Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period.  Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 560, 567, and 572 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 581, 567, and 561 May, with resistance at 602, 605, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 651, 645, and 641 May, and resistance is at 669, 677, and 681 May.
RICE
General Comments:  Rice closed lower yesterday, but recovered from its worst losses of the day in the second half of the session.  Trends are down in this market.  Good demand for export continues.  The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US.  It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with no objectives.  Support is at 1685, 1672, and 1660 May and resistance is at 1744, 1751, and 1769 May.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was a little lower and Oats closed higher yesterday.  Corn was weaker on ideas that the stocks report on Thursday will show ample supplies for this year and that the [planting intentions report will show that ample supplies will likely continue well into next year.  Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices.  Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold.  Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns.   The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week.  More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil   The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May.  Support is at 359, 353, and 349 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 376 May.
SOYBEANS
General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be fund short covering before the USDA reports are released on Thursday.  Some buying was tied to forecasts for very dry weather in southern Brazil that could hurt developing crops.  Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less.  Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support.  Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season.  Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.  \Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1211, 1227, and 1233 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4630 and 4430 May.  Support is at 4760, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 4980, 6000, and 5030 May.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments:   Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas of stronger production.  The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already.  The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%.  Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve.  Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall.  The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported.   Trends are up on the daily charts.  Canola was a little higher yesterday on a weaker Canadian Dollar.  There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil.  Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 653.00 and 662.00 May.  Support is at 631.00, 619.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 4240, 4130, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4360 May.
Midwest Weather Forecast   Mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.
                        Corn  HRW   SRW   Soybeans    Soybean Meal      Soybean Oil
March                               54 Mar      165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar
April                               58 May      185 May     80 May      68 May
May                                 59 May      165 May     80 May      68 May
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 26
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           985.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
May           955.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jun           945.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   890.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –
Oct/Nov/Dec   872.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           990.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        _
May           960.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jun           950.00     -05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   895.00     -02.50      Unquoted   –        –
Oct/Nov/Dec   877.50      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           970.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           810.00     -05.00     Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           4,380.00    00.00     Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Apr           329.00      +09.00     Unquoted   –        –
($1=MYR4.7185)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 234,174 lots, or 11.14 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-24     4,734     4,811     4,725     4,746     4,714     4,764        50   178,649   106,911
Jul-24     4,702     4,792     4,702     4,727     4,692     4,747        55    23,492    21,727
Sep-24     4,673     4,774     4,673     4,707     4,660     4,731        71    29,061    22,763
Nov-24     4,629     4,721     4,629     4,671     4,620     4,680        60     1,263     2,953
Jan-25     4,613     4,688     4,613     4,643     4,600     4,653        53     1,621     3,512
Mar-25     4,588     4,666     4,588     4,627     4,579     4,630        51        88        91
Corn
Turnover: 470,865 lots, or 11.28 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-24     2,397     2,401     2,381     2,385     2,402     2,388       -14   345,179   892,264
Jul-24     2,423     2,427     2,410     2,412     2,429     2,414       -15    68,750   322,177
Sep-24     2,436     2,441     2,424     2,424     2,443     2,429       -14    41,289   230,444
Nov-24     2,412     2,416     2,404     2,404     2,417     2,406       -11     7,965    26,173
Jan-25     2,400     2,400     2,385     2,385     2,398     2,389        -9     7,576    30,756
Mar-25     2,398     2,399     2,388     2,388     2,400     2,392        -8       106       457
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,550,826 lots, or 50.71 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
May-24     3,252     3,278     3,247     3,258     3,264     3,261        -3   1,033,402   1,263,478
Jul-24     3,231     3,261     3,227     3,242     3,242     3,244         2      30,021      84,180
Aug-24     3,282     3,316     3,282     3,302     3,301     3,301         0       3,328      30,491
Sep-24     3,281     3,306     3,273     3,291     3,284     3,290         6     451,824   1,224,827
Nov-24     3,260     3,284     3,253     3,271     3,262     3,271         9       3,424      41,452
Dec-24     3,282     3,303     3,276     3,291     3,281     3,290         9         662      10,374
Jan-25     3,260     3,280     3,253     3,268     3,264     3,267         3      27,575     257,733
Mar-25     3,204     3,220     3,199     3,203     3,210     3,209        -1         590       4,433
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,173,295 lots, or 96.62 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                  Interest
Apr-24     8,494     8,496     8,338     8,338     8,428     8,416       -12          82     1,827
May-24     8,400     8,424     8,230     8,266     8,300     8,328        28   1,001,108   474,422
Jun-24     8,114     8,146     7,974     7,998     8,044     8,044         0       3,672     4,795
Jul-24     7,968     7,990     7,840     7,864     7,894     7,896         2         764     3,726
Aug-24     7,832     7,868     7,726     7,734     7,750     7,804        54         884       713
Sep-24     7,700     7,752     7,608     7,618     7,626     7,682        56     158,870   216,425
Oct-24     7,608     7,686     7,512     7,516     7,522     7,588        66         204       359
Nov-24     7,536     7,548     7,454     7,454     7,452     7,498        46          80       428
Dec-24     7,470     7,486     7,418     7,418     7,388     7,448        60          52       213
Jan-25     7,406     7,458     7,350     7,352     7,344     7,402        58       7,430    16,645
Feb-25     7,380     7,412     7,316     7,316     7,304     7,382        78          82        94
Mar-25     7,370     7,410     7,312     7,312     7,308     7,376        68          67        93
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 758,390 lots, or 59.33 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
May-24     7,850     7,938     7,776     7,784     7,826     7,852        26   532,651   568,077
Jul-24     7,800     7,884     7,730     7,736     7,762     7,800        38     4,637    17,983
Aug-24     7,774     7,860     7,708     7,714     7,730     7,770        40       961     4,350
Sep-24     7,732     7,828     7,674     7,680     7,694     7,750        56   207,384   421,125
Nov-24     7,708     7,798     7,644     7,650     7,658     7,730        72     1,380     7,688
Dec-24     7,790     7,818     7,706     7,706     7,732     7,780        48       147     1,809
Jan-25     7,738     7,816     7,664     7,668     7,698     7,748        50    11,134    48,631
Mar-25     7,726     7,760     7,646     7,646     7,670     7,710        40        96        89
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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