Softs Report 03/25/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower last week with weakness seen in nearby months on ideas of weaker export demand. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid but reduced from previous levels in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.
Overnight News: The Delta will get showers and rains and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and near normal temperatures. Texas will have showers and rains and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 85.86 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 43,872 bales, from 41,756 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8520 and 7720 May. Support is at 90.80, 88.10, and 86.20 May, with resistance of 96.20, 97.70 and 98.40 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 329,988
: Positions :
: 92,021 28,347 74,242 62,324 204,812 82,151 12,209 310,738 319,609: 19,250 10,379
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,677) :
: -3,362 1,298 3,106 2,015 -3,855 97 840 1,856 1,389: -179 288
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.9 8.6 22.5 18.9 62.1 24.9 3.7 94.2 96.9: 5.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 316 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 130 61 109 53 68 49 16 277 212:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower last week despite reports of tight supplies. Florida said that Oranges production will be low, but above a year ago. Futures still appear to have topped out even with no real downtrend showing yet. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed Support is at 347.00, 343.00, and 325.00 May, with resistance at 371.00, 378.00, and 389.00 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,406 :
: Positions :
: 2,616 4,976 664 83 133 2,578 1,412 42 1,141 1,002 2,440 :
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 :
: -69 -152 -3 -33 12 -22 218 21 28 30 6 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.9 43.6 5.8 0.7 1.2 22.6 12.4 0.4 10.0 8.8 21.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 11 8 . . . 18 6 . 9 14 8 :
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DJ Florida Department of Citrus Cuts 2023-24 Orange-Juice Production Forecast
By Mary de Wet
The Florida Department of Citrus cut its estimate for orange juice production in the state by about 7% as plant disease and weather remain concerns.
The department expects Florida to produce 87.7 million single-strength equivalent gallons, down from 94.3 million SSE gallons previously.
While the 2023-24 orange crop is expected to increase, Florida’s orange juice production remains hampered by citrus greening and weather-related events, the department said Wednesday.
The new forecast is higher than the 67.5 million SSE gallons produced in the 2022-23 season, when Hurricane Ian damaged orange groves across Florida.
Globally, orange-juice supplies are likely to rise 3.2% during the current season to 1.7 billion SSE gallons. Florida production is estimated to contribute 5.2% of the total supply, the department said.

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets closed higher last week and held the weekly trading range as the lack of Robusta Coffee in the market continues to support futures overall. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less with half a marketing year in front of them and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers due to currency considerations. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.560 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 186.15 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 183.00, 179.00, and 178.00 May, and resistance is at 188.00, 190.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3420, 3520, and 3590 May. Support is at 3320, 3290, and 3220 May, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3490 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 248,741
: Positions :
: 50,569 22,100 69,291 59,810 140,680 60,887 9,755 240,557 241,826: 8,185 6,915
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,343) :
: -3,680 1,881 1,980 7,121 -730 -580 1,306 4,841 4,436: -497 -93
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 8.9 27.9 24.0 56.6 24.5 3.9 96.7 97.2: 3.3 2.8
: Total Traders: 375 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 100 90 118 95 113 49 20 314 283:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed lower and London closed higher last week and futures held to a trading range in New York and are up in London. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing some selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Demand reports from Europe have been strong.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2110, 2030, and 1930 May and resistance is at 2230, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 654.00, 676.00, and 698.00 May. Support is at 619.00, 612.00, and 604.00 May, with resistance at 650.00, 663.00, and 670.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,006,177
: Positions :
: 79,092 71,081 258,214 376,157 541,798 219,543 68,597 933,006 939,690: 73,171 66,486
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,585) :
: -6,532 -1,067 -633 11,761 17,575 4,736 -4,721 9,332 11,154: -746 -2,569
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 7.1 25.7 37.4 53.8 21.8 6.8 92.7 93.4: 7.3 6.6
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 44 81 70 66 40 18 205 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher last week and kept the incredible rally going on production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.119 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 9200 and 9970 May. Support is at 7710, 6980, and 6660 May, with resistance at 8740, 8860, and 8980 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 7460 and 7960 May. Support is at 6960, 6500, and 6040 May, with resistance at 7240, 7360, and 7480 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 382,910
: Positions :
: 41,690 24,563 195,096 100,070 142,987 32,108 11,692 368,964 374,339: 13,946 8,571
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,505) :
: -8,272 -1,582 6,645 13,058 5,865 -1,680 -579 9,751 10,349: -1,246 -1,845
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.9 6.4 51.0 26.1 37.3 8.4 3.1 96.4 97.8: 3.6 2.2
: Total Traders: 214 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 81 52 76 43 39 30 14 182 155:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322