Grains Report 03/25/2024

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville

Monday, March 25, 2024

Price Futures Group, CBOT
Chicago, IL
(312) 264-4322
jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV
San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA
San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024
jslsa@comcast.net

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was a little higher last week despite reports of weaker pricer seen in Russia and Europe. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 560, 572, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 594, 605, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 651, 645, and 641 May, and resistance is at 669, 677, and 681 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 477,569
: Positions :
: 47,389 155,787 147,459 72,833 70,615 174,695 67,156 442,376 441,016: 35,193 36,553
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 26,206) :
: -3,497 3,174 19,737 3,872 -2,280 5,325 4,924 25,437 25,555: 769 651
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.9 32.6 30.9 15.3 14.8 36.6 14.1 92.6 92.3: 7.4 7.7
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 118 112 85 75 48 32 284 264:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 294,636
: Positions :
: 37,226 91,320 77,086 58,600 75,170 103,378 30,376 276,291 273,952: 18,346 20,684
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,042) :
: -473 4,324 5,549 -1,092 -5,403 2,686 1,473 6,669 5,942: -627 100
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 31.0 26.2 19.9 25.5 35.1 10.3 93.8 93.0: 6.2 7.0
: Total Traders: 244 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 43 74 71 59 72 38 25 182 203:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 69,648 :
: Positions :
: 35,618 15,506 2,001 525 453 8,573 31,306 6,784 1,464 1,083 4,015 :
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 :
: 647 873 386 244 -20 489 1,521 503 63 285 -65 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.1 22.3 2.9 0.8 0.7 12.3 44.9 9.7 2.1 1.6 5.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 107 :
: 45 33 6 . 4 8 24 9 8 6 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week, and trends are down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1731, 1722, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1769, 1785, and 1803 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 11,335 :
: Positions :
: 3,245 8,380 89 0 0 3,551 718 28 1,312 792 451 :
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 :
: 106 -886 -14 0 0 -675 181 -170 6 20 -50 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 28.6 73.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 31.3 6.3 0.2 11.6 7.0 4.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 61 :
: 18 18 . 0 0 14 . . 16 . 5 :

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher and Oats closed lower last week. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. The Dollar was higher yesterday and could be turning the short term trends up. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,999,136
: Positions :
: 131,473 385,338 642,118 521,878 546,313 493,649 211,388 1,789,119 1,785,157: 210,018 213,979
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 37,704) :
: -4,358 -22,326 11,665 13,210 27,180 13,446 17,656 33,963 34,175: 3,741 3,529
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.6 19.3 32.1 26.1 27.3 24.7 10.6 89.5 89.3: 10.5 10.7
: Total Traders: 763 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 167 185 348 340 50 42 620 637:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on Friday and mostly lower last week on what appeared to be fund short covering. Soybean Meal closed a little higher last week. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. \Big rains were reported in Argentina last week but it should be drier there this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1211, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4630 and 4430 May. Support is at 4690, 4620, and 4550 May, with resistance at 4850, 4980, and 5000 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 995,024
: Positions :
: 46,709 213,907 298,789 389,283 330,820 200,108 77,149 934,889 920,665: 60,135 74,359
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 43,198) :
: 1,727 -11,038 13,860 25,448 36,461 1,847 323 42,882 39,606: 316 3,592
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.7 21.5 30.0 39.1 33.2 20.1 7.8 94.0 92.5: 6.0 7.5
: Total Traders: 523 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 154 186 179 191 49 30 437 454:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 621,449
: Positions :
: 50,570 114,814 189,440 175,378 249,592 175,739 41,571 591,128 595,418: 30,321 26,032
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,654) :
: -3,388 -13,775 17,346 9,483 23,055 2,239 601 25,679 27,227: -26 -1,573
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 18.5 30.5 28.2 40.2 28.3 6.7 95.1 95.8: 4.9 4.2
: Total Traders: 337 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 88 109 93 96 44 22 278 258:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 549,577
: Positions :
: 53,643 113,675 145,188 176,692 210,240 122,692 46,892 498,216 515,995: 51,361 33,582
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,036) :
: 6,016 -4,777 6,976 -1,343 7,401 1,344 2,342 12,993 11,941: 1,043 2,095
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8 20.7 26.4 32.2 38.3 22.3 8.5 90.7 93.9: 9.3 6.1
: Total Traders: 341 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 82 101 130 111 40 22 293 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of stronger production. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was a little higher. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 653.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 632.00, 619.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4130, 4050, and 4010 May, with resistance at 4310, 4340, and 4360 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,989 :
: Positions :
: 32,240 16,361 800 12,318 1,350 560 880 680 220 4,251 8,139 :
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 :
: 2,100 -360 0 1,920 -80 240 0 0 0 780 180 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 73.3 37.2 1.8 28.0 3.1 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.5 9.7 18.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 32 :
: 9 11 . 4 4 . . . . 11 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 19, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 307,428 :
: Positions :
: 239,216 115,633 3,799 2,438 4,766 6,670 131,388 26,522 9,784 10,183 14,284 :
: Changes from: March 12, 2024 :
: -406 10,133 -632 -459 239 -589 -11,523 4,495 387 567 2,545 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 77.8 37.6 1.2 0.8 1.6 2.2 42.7 8.6 3.2 3.3 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 327 :
: 64 56 . 6 6 17 88 21 62 57 50 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 985.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May 960.00 — Unquoted – –
Jun 950.00 — Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 892.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 990.00 +20.00 Unquoted – _
May 965.00 — Unquoted – –
Jun 955.00 — Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 897.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 970.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 815.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,380.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 320.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7235)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 104,237 lots, or 4.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,720 4,737 4,688 4,721 4,708 4,714 6 83,251 95,835
Jul-24 4,700 4,717 4,671 4,702 4,691 4,692 1 10,918 20,347
Sep-24 4,681 4,688 4,638 4,673 4,670 4,660 -10 9,095 19,362
Nov-24 4,643 4,651 4,588 4,624 4,632 4,620 -12 316 2,786
Jan-25 4,623 4,629 4,581 4,599 4,614 4,600 -14 622 3,454
Mar-25 4,589 4,590 4,567 4,579 4,600 4,579 -21 35 81
Corn
Turnover: 601,414 lots, or 14.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,401 2,412 2,393 2,397 2,408 2,402 -6 448,091 883,517
Jul-24 2,434 2,439 2,419 2,423 2,432 2,429 -3 91,398 313,728
Sep-24 2,445 2,455 2,433 2,437 2,449 2,443 -6 52,745 218,365
Nov-24 2,418 2,426 2,410 2,412 2,422 2,417 -5 4,221 23,608
Jan-25 2,403 2,406 2,392 2,396 2,401 2,398 -3 4,827 26,413
Mar-25 2,404 2,407 2,395 2,397 2,404 2,400 -4 132 430
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,583,217 lots, or 84.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,315 3,320 3,226 3,249 3,345 3,264 -81 1,700,586 1,308,137
Jul-24 3,293 3,297 3,203 3,231 3,309 3,242 -67 54,373 84,663
Aug-24 3,344 3,350 3,263 3,286 3,356 3,301 -55 7,585 30,133
Sep-24 3,324 3,330 3,250 3,278 3,335 3,284 -51 755,696 1,192,462
Nov-24 3,312 3,312 3,231 3,257 3,316 3,262 -54 7,957 41,504
Dec-24 3,322 3,330 3,258 3,276 3,343 3,281 -62 1,630 10,391
Jan-25 3,305 3,307 3,235 3,253 3,314 3,264 -50 53,543 254,938
Mar-25 3,251 3,251 3,185 3,197 3,253 3,210 -43 1,847 4,355
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,356,695 lots, or 11.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,400 8,484 8,346 8,440 8,400 8,428 28 239 1,838
May-24 8,260 8,386 8,186 8,372 8,322 8,300 -22 1,173,052 508,539
Jun-24 8,040 8,112 7,944 8,090 8,066 8,044 -22 3,703 4,611
Jul-24 7,870 7,956 7,804 7,944 7,934 7,894 -40 1,093 3,693
Aug-24 7,756 7,820 7,672 7,808 7,800 7,750 -50 946 735
Sep-24 7,640 7,702 7,550 7,682 7,680 7,626 -54 171,057 208,047
Oct-24 7,548 7,590 7,458 7,572 7,584 7,522 -62 130 372
Nov-24 7,468 7,516 7,382 7,496 7,488 7,452 -36 90 423
Dec-24 7,400 7,464 7,332 7,464 7,446 7,388 -58 50 214
Jan-25 7,328 7,410 7,270 7,384 7,364 7,344 -20 6,185 16,298
Feb-25 7,304 7,370 7,250 7,346 7,330 7,304 -26 71 92
Mar-25 7,308 7,364 7,260 7,346 7,324 7,308 -16 79 91
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 683,485 lots, or 53.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,878 7,886 7,758 7,838 7,904 7,826 -78 508,934 592,056
Jul-24 7,806 7,812 7,706 7,782 7,856 7,762 -94 4,542 17,653
Aug-24 7,776 7,780 7,680 7,752 7,794 7,730 -64 892 4,346
Sep-24 7,736 7,746 7,642 7,718 7,762 7,694 -68 159,116 402,539
Nov-24 7,712 7,718 7,620 7,692 7,738 7,658 -80 1,072 7,926
Dec-24 7,762 7,762 7,692 7,742 7,792 7,732 -60 63 1,840
Jan-25 7,736 7,742 7,654 7,720 7,760 7,698 -62 8,816 46,024
Mar-25 7,698 7,702 7,640 7,688 7,712 7,670 -42 50 94
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322