Grains Report 03/22/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 527, and 524 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 567, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 594, 605, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 645, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

RICE
General Comments: \ Rice closed lower again yesterday, and trends are down in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It has turned colder in the US this week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1731, 1722, and 1710 May and resistance is at 1769, 1785, and 1803 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged and Oats closed lower. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. The Dollar was higher yesterday and could be turning the short term trends up. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 264,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 350 May. Support is at 349, 344, and 340 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher on what appeared to be fund short covering. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been shut off. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1229 May. Support is at 1206, 1192, and 1181 May, and resistance is at 1233, 1253, and 1261 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 353.00 May. Support is at 339.00, 326.00, and 320.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 357.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4780, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 5000, 5050, and 5100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on ideas of stronger production. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was lower. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 653.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 636.00, 632.00, and 619.00 May, with resistance at 653.00, 660.00, and 665.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4200, 4120, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4330, 4360, and 4390 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322