Grains Report 03/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher again yesterday on reports of higher prices for Russian Wheat. Russia is the worlds largest exporter and sets the world price. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 527, 524, and 518 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 561, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 594, 605, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 677, and 681 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday, and trends are still sideways in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It has turned colder in the US this week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1759, 1731, and 1722 May and resistance is at 1785, 1803, and 1837 May.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Mar 20
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.55 14.89 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.05 16.15 0.00
Brokens 14.85 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 48.82/19.56 6.76
Medium Grain/Short Grain 61.56/9.04 7.04

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher and Oats closed lower, with Corn failing once again to take out the 440 May area on the charts. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. The Dollar was higher yesterday and could be turning the short term trends up. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 356, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 369, 374, and 376 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher and Soybean Oil closed lower yesterday ideas of weak export demand and on reports of increased selling from Brazil producers as the weather in Brazil became dry in northern areas again and as world demand for Brazil beans remained high. Brazil producers were taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil. Reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1206, 1214, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4780, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 5000, 5050, and 5100 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today as the export pace is expected to continue to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher on a stronger US Dollar and Weaker Canadian Dollar. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 644.00, and 653.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4200, 4120, and 4050 May, with resistance at 4300, 4330, and 4360 May.

DJ Malaysia March 1-20 Palm Oil Exports Rose 16.34% on Month to 787,534 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports for March 1-20 are estimated to have risen 16.34% from the previous month to 787,534 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
March 1-20 Feb. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 228,483 186,921
RBD Palm Oil 102,385 75,477
RBD Palm Stearin 54,011 51,535
Crude Palm Oil 114,381 177,465
Total* 787,534 676,949
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 975.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 955.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 892.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 872.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 980.00 +07.50 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 960.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 897.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 877.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 960.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 815.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,400.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 305.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.736)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 127,555 lots, or 6.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,743 4,744 4,703 4,736 4,754 4,720 -34 107,259 111,494
Jul-24 4,721 4,723 4,687 4,719 4,733 4,703 -30 13,200 24,844
Sep-24 4,683 4,694 4,655 4,689 4,700 4,671 -29 6,149 19,000
Nov-24 4,636 4,641 4,615 4,641 4,648 4,627 -21 409 2,817
Jan-25 4,607 4,621 4,593 4,621 4,624 4,605 -19 526 3,449
Mar-25 4,585 4,591 4,577 4,588 4,604 4,584 -20 12 39
Corn
Turnover: 388,110 lots, or 9.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,420 2,430 2,420 2,424 2,423 2,425 2 319,166 892,777
Jul-24 2,447 2,457 2,445 2,448 2,449 2,450 1 39,535 261,141
Sep-24 2,455 2,466 2,455 2,459 2,458 2,460 2 23,811 208,184
Nov-24 2,420 2,430 2,418 2,426 2,423 2,425 2 3,610 22,177
Jan-25 2,402 2,410 2,402 2,403 2,402 2,404 2 1,940 18,532
Mar-25 2,407 2,411 2,404 2,408 2,409 2,408 -1 48 236
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,691,848 lots, or 55.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,280 3,330 3,278 3,324 3,281 3,302 21 1,216,055 1,429,322
Jul-24 3,250 3,286 3,249 3,277 3,256 3,267 11 36,926 84,271
Aug-24 3,297 3,330 3,297 3,321 3,306 3,316 10 3,173 30,351
Sep-24 3,282 3,315 3,281 3,306 3,290 3,296 6 391,332 1,119,635
Nov-24 3,267 3,298 3,266 3,288 3,279 3,281 2 5,886 43,238
Dec-24 3,293 3,319 3,293 3,309 3,299 3,305 6 1,076 10,402
Jan-25 3,273 3,299 3,271 3,290 3,280 3,283 3 36,532 228,840
Mar-25 3,222 3,239 3,218 3,234 3,230 3,227 -3 868 2,687
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,077,789 lots, or 87.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,256 8,498 8,230 8,498 8,292 8,360 68 568 1,959
May-24 8,136 8,384 8,114 8,362 8,162 8,226 64 933,861 522,129
Jun-24 7,980 8,128 7,926 8,108 7,986 8,012 26 3,607 4,389
Jul-24 7,808 7,976 7,794 7,962 7,846 7,882 36 1,357 3,532
Aug-24 7,708 7,852 7,684 7,840 7,728 7,738 10 641 729
Sep-24 7,598 7,746 7,564 7,726 7,610 7,640 30 132,608 205,865
Oct-24 7,486 7,634 7,480 7,634 7,514 7,556 42 107 362
Nov-24 7,434 7,556 7,408 7,556 7,450 7,468 18 84 404
Dec-24 7,384 7,514 7,358 7,514 7,396 7,446 50 41 177
Jan-25 7,330 7,434 7,290 7,416 7,336 7,354 18 4,786 14,384
Feb-25 7,286 7,396 7,282 7,396 7,310 7,332 22 45 114
Mar-25 7,278 7,374 7,264 7,364 7,298 7,322 24 84 51
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 586,150 lots, or 45.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,760 7,912 7,756 7,890 7,834 7,822 -12 433,928 602,414
Jul-24 7,736 7,846 7,712 7,824 7,760 7,764 4 2,422 17,317
Aug-24 7,686 7,816 7,682 7,802 7,722 7,730 8 993 4,412
Sep-24 7,668 7,782 7,642 7,762 7,692 7,702 10 142,616 374,898
Nov-24 7,646 7,760 7,628 7,746 7,680 7,698 18 715 8,382
Dec-24 7,712 7,822 7,700 7,822 7,762 7,742 -20 57 1,943
Jan-25 7,700 7,814 7,676 7,798 7,736 7,728 -8 5,403 42,880
Mar-25 7,658 7,738 7,652 7,738 7,722 7,680 -42 16 22
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322