Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY and capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., NOPA Crush report at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The latest Illinois Crop Production Cost report showed that while Central Illinois nitrogen prices are slightly above the late 2023 low, fertilizer values are at the lowest price in 3 years, 28% Nitrogen solution was quoted in a range of $346-440/ton with an weighted average price of $384. This is down $167/ton or 30% cheaper than a year ago and the lowest March offer since 2021. Anhydrous ammonia was quoted from $730-880/ton with an average of $799, down 366/ton or 31& less than last year. On per-unit cost, the spread between 28% and AA narrowed by $0.7/Lb or 27% compared to a year ago at $.20/Lb. The CBOT futures came out mixed with summer row crops slightly lower while world wheat traders’ debate whether China canceled or rolled forward their Australian wheat purchases. There is no confirmation that China canceled or postponed ant French wheat purchases. US and European wheat values are slightly higher with profit taking noted in long soybeans and short wheat spreads. A mixed trading session is expected today with bears using weakness to reduce their net exposure with the USDA Stocks & Seedings report just 9-days away. The heavily short hedge fund positions, South American weather/yields and demand destruction weigh on this heavily positioned bear market (at the moment), with new outside money steadily flowing in the grain complex. Expectations for today’s February Crush report is forecast for a record crush. Which is keeping the pendulum swinging bull or bear, supply & demand. Open interest data showed corn gaining 1,083 contracts, soybeans 7,143 contracts, and Chicago wheat 7,896 contracts. Soybean oil was up 4,308 contracts and soybean meal open interest added 1,056 contracts.
Row Crops & Day Of Reckoning. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/15/2024
We kickoff the day with Export Prices MoM & YoY, Import Prices MoM & YoY, and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index at 7:30 A.M., Industrial Production MoM & YoY, Manufacturing Production MoM & YoY and capacity Utilization at 8:15 A.M., Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Prel, Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel, Michigan Current Conditions Prel, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel at 9:00 A.M., NOPA Crush report at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
The latest Illinois Crop Production Cost report showed that while Central Illinois nitrogen prices are slightly above the late 2023 low, fertilizer values are at the lowest price in 3 years, 28% Nitrogen solution was quoted in a range of $346-440/ton with an weighted average price of $384. This is down $167/ton or 30% cheaper than a year ago and the lowest March offer since 2021. Anhydrous ammonia was quoted from $730-880/ton with an average of $799, down 366/ton or 31& less than last year. On per-unit cost, the spread between 28% and AA narrowed by $0.7/Lb or 27% compared to a year ago at $.20/Lb. The CBOT futures came out mixed with summer row crops slightly lower while world wheat traders’ debate whether China canceled or rolled forward their Australian wheat purchases. There is no confirmation that China canceled or postponed ant French wheat purchases. US and European wheat values are slightly higher with profit taking noted in long soybeans and short wheat spreads. A mixed trading session is expected today with bears using weakness to reduce their net exposure with the USDA Stocks & Seedings report just 9-days away. The heavily short hedge fund positions, South American weather/yields and demand destruction weigh on this heavily positioned bear market (at the moment), with new outside money steadily flowing in the grain complex. Expectations for today’s February Crush report is forecast for a record crush. Which is keeping the pendulum swinging bull or bear, supply & demand. Open interest data showed corn gaining 1,083 contracts, soybeans 7,143 contracts, and Chicago wheat 7,896 contracts. Soybean oil was up 4,308 contracts and soybean meal open interest added 1,056 contracts.
Have A Great Trading Day!
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn