Softs Report 03/14/2024

DJ El Niño Expected to Disperse This Spring — Market Talk
0941 ET – Odds that the current El Niño climate will change this spring are up to 83%, says the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in an update today. Climate is expected to transition between April and June to a neutral climate system, NOAA says. Additionally, the agency gives a 62% chance of a La Niña system developing by June to August. How the climate changes over spring into the summer is important to U.S. growers, with the planting season beginning for farmers in April. CBOT grains are mixed early in the trading session, with corn down 0.6%, soybeans up 0.4%, and wheat off 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed mostly a little higher again yesterday, but nearby May and July closed lower. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 89.36 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 27,765 bales, from 26,655 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 10 contacts. USDA said that weekly net Upland Cotton export sales were 85,800 bales this year and 112,700 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 6,800 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 92.50, 90.90, and 88.10 May, with resistance of 97.70, 98.40 and 100.50 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday. The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and in Brazil but is now holding as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 349.00, 343.00, and 335.00 May, with resistance at 360.00, 369.00, and 378.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and chart trends are up in both markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the market action. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell with half a marketing year in font of them and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production and conditions are called good. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is good for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.458 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 183.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 156 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,133 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 201.00 May. Support is at 182.00, 180.00, and 178.00 May, and resistance is at 190.00, 194.00 and 196.00 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2550 May. Support is at 3220, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3390 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends are turning up on the daily charts. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling, but producers do not appear to be selling much. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas although Indian production estimates are creeping higher and one source there estimates production at about 34 million tons, from 32 million before. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. UNICA aid that the center south Brazil Sugarcane crush was 552,000 tons in the second half of February, up 668% from the previous year. Mills produced 16,000 tons of Sugar and 329 million liters of Ethanol.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2250, 2360, and 2390 May. Support is at 2140, 2110, and 2030 May and resistance is at 2220, 2260, and 2290 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 630.00, 654.00, and 676.00 May. Support is at 604.00, 597.00, and 590.00 May, with resistance at 624.00, 638.00, and 650.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were a little lower in correction trading after closing at new highs for the move and new contract highs the previous day that reflect the lack of supply in the world market as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues to be strong, especially from nontraditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.079 million bags. ICE NY said that 8 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,015 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 6660, 6470, and 6290 May, with resistance at 7220, 7280, and 7340 May. Trends in London are up with objectives of 6090 and 6640 May. Support is at 5610, 5380, and 5170 May, with resistance at 5900, 5960, and 6020 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322