Grains Report 03/14/2024

DJ Global Grains Forecast Trimmed as Corn Harvest Prospects Worsen
By Joe Hoppe
Global grain production has been revised lower for the year on worsening prospects for corn, the International Grains Council said in a report on Thursday.
The IGC now expects global grain output at 2.304 billion metric tons in 2023-24, down from February’s estimate of 2.310 billion tons. This remains a sharp rise on the prior-year’s harvest of 2.268 billion tons.
The cut is due to a fall in expectations for corn harvests in the southern hemisphere, though corn production is still forecast to more than offset declines in wheat and barley, the grains body said.
For corn, now it expects output of 1.227 billion tons in 2023-24, down from 1.234 billion tons at last month’s forecast. This is still a sharp rise from the prior-year harvest of 1.163 billion tons, when crop growth was hit by European droughts.
Meanwhile, wheat output is expected at 789 million tons while rice is expected at 511 million tons.
For 2024-25, production is expected to increase for a second successive season to 2.332 billion tons, with broad gains in wheat and coarse grains.

DJ El Niño Expected to Disperse This Spring — Market Talk
0941 ET – Odds that the current El Niño climate will change this spring are up to 83%, says the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in an update today. Climate is expected to transition between April and June to a neutral climate system, NOAA says. Additionally, the agency gives a 62% chance of a La Niña system developing by June to August. How the climate changes over spring into the summer is important to U.S. growers, with the planting season beginning for farmers in April. CBOT grains are mixed early in the trading session, with corn down 0.6%, soybeans up 0.4%, and wheat off 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Mar 14
For the week ended Mar 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 83.8 81.3 18501.7 17738.1 5286.7 517.8
hrw 86.0 16.0 3395.6 4809.7 975.8 116.1
srw -104.8 0.8 4527.3 2711.5 1704.4 168.2
hrs 40.4 37.5 6255.2 5405.1 1614.5 137.5
white 61.8 27.0 3862.0 4476.5 888.0 39.0
durum 0.5 0.0 461.5 335.2 103.9 57.0
corn 1283.4 0.0 40510.9 31832.8 17895.4 1619.8
soybeans 376.0 94.3 39666.0 49325.3 4943.9 350.1
soymeal 209.5 96.3 9826.0 8265.4 3478.7 178.5
soyoil 11.2 6.9 72.6 63.2 57.5 7.5
upland cotton 85.8 112.7 10615.2 10868.9 4647.7 950.1
pima cotton 6.8 0.0 254.3 147.6 64.5 3.3
sorghum 5.7 0.0 4936.6 1501.4 1377.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.9 12.1 14.0
rice 43.8 0.0 2555.5 1553.5 660.8 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little lower yesterday in anticipation of a bad weekly export sales report that was released early this morning. Trends are still turning up in these markets. It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures. USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 537, 528, and 524 May, with resistance at 556, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 612 and 634 May. Support is at 581, 568, and 560 May, with resistance at 608, 617, and 633 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 688 and 712 May. Support is at 660, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 677, 681, and 688 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday and trends are sideways in this market. Good demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1803, 1827, and 1845 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged yesterday for the second day in a row. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objective of 450 May. Support is at 433, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 356, and 349 May, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 3769 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday on ideas of weak export demand in the USDA reports released earlier this morning. Reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 and 1229 May. Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1204, 1214, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 344.00 and 353.00 May. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4880, 4960, and 5070 May. Support is at 4810, 4690, and 4620 May, with resistance at 4890, 4910, and 5000 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are up on the daily charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May. Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 629.00, 638.00, and 644.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4150 May. Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3960 May, with resistance at 4230, 4260, and 4290 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

57 May 185 May 85 May 68 May

58 May 165 May 85 May 71 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 977.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 977.50 +35.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 955.00 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 892.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 985.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 985.00 +35.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 962.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 900.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 965.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 815.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,350.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 300.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.684)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 101,596 lots, or 4.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,718 4,740 4,442 4,732 4,690 4,628 -62 95 0
May-24 4,731 4,763 4,726 4,760 4,717 4,745 28 82,315 137,381
Jul-24 4,674 4,708 4,667 4,705 4,658 4,690 32 10,805 29,341
Sep-24 4,642 4,668 4,633 4,666 4,626 4,649 23 6,782 18,668
Nov-24 4,610 4,630 4,599 4,627 4,595 4,611 16 920 2,775
Jan-25 4,603 4,610 4,580 4,608 4,578 4,593 15 679 3,522
Corn
Turnover: 557,029 lots, or 13.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,387 2,430 2,337 2,337 2,410 2,407 -3 582 0
May-24 2,438 2,445 2,423 2,425 2,440 2,434 -6 477,414 912,630
Jul-24 2,456 2,462 2,446 2,448 2,459 2,455 -4 43,830 238,504
Sep-24 2,452 2,457 2,442 2,442 2,453 2,449 -4 25,477 188,735
Nov-24 2,422 2,425 2,411 2,416 2,425 2,419 -6 6,407 21,444
Jan-25 2,406 2,408 2,397 2,400 2,408 2,402 -6 3,319 13,203
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,669,136 lots, or 86.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 3,145 3,320 3,145 -175 0 0
May-24 3,208 3,281 3,203 3,266 3,226 3,239 13 1,821,233 1,505,165
Jul-24 3,213 3,267 3,201 3,253 3,228 3,233 5 100,841 125,669
Aug-24 3,270 3,311 3,259 3,306 3,281 3,287 6 6,166 31,606
Sep-24 3,257 3,298 3,250 3,295 3,274 3,276 2 653,901 995,612
Nov-24 3,256 3,279 3,241 3,276 3,265 3,262 -3 8,694 35,815
Dec-24 3,275 3,292 3,258 3,292 3,284 3,275 -9 1,926 9,923
Jan-25 3,254 3,262 3,231 3,258 3,258 3,246 -12 76,375 169,734
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,168,518 lots, or 9.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,700 7,700 7,700 0 0 0
Apr-24 8,088 8,338 8,074 8,308 8,014 8,204 190 1,293 2,373
May-24 7,942 8,172 7,918 8,132 7,854 8,046 192 984,946 537,156
Jun-24 7,792 7,996 7,772 7,964 7,696 7,892 196 2,332 3,182
Jul-24 7,650 7,854 7,598 7,832 7,592 7,758 166 1,143 3,642
Aug-24 7,550 7,714 7,540 7,674 7,494 7,632 138 486 782
Sep-24 7,446 7,592 7,426 7,530 7,382 7,512 130 171,422 166,721
Oct-24 7,382 7,488 7,340 7,432 7,298 7,404 106 221 360
Nov-24 7,318 7,430 7,310 7,374 7,258 7,370 112 222 444
Dec-24 7,312 7,384 7,274 7,320 7,222 7,320 98 48 170
Jan-25 7,230 7,350 7,220 7,278 7,176 7,282 106 6,269 11,737
Feb-25 7,228 7,326 7,206 7,258 7,168 7,268 100 136 163
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 848,527 lots, or 65.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,524 7,326 7,524 198 0 0
May-24 7,720 7,858 7,680 7,770 7,672 7,770 98 624,273 597,928
Jul-24 7,666 7,766 7,622 7,696 7,608 7,698 90 4,482 16,965
Aug-24 7,630 7,728 7,608 7,662 7,592 7,666 74 1,564 4,467
Sep-24 7,600 7,700 7,572 7,628 7,558 7,632 74 203,949 296,430
Nov-24 7,578 7,670 7,560 7,608 7,552 7,612 60 1,274 7,200
Dec-24 7,656 7,732 7,630 7,664 7,612 7,688 76 84 1,709
Jan-25 7,622 7,704 7,598 7,644 7,584 7,650 66 12,901 23,401
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322