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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Grains Report 03/13/2024

By On March 13, 2024 - 12:26 PM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 13
Source: CME Group  
                                      Contract                        Quantity   Next Trade
Commodity                             Month      Delivery Day   Assigned Today   Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL                          March      Mar 14, 2024               65   Mar 12, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL                           March      Mar 14, 2024               42   Mar 12, 2024
ROUGH RICE                            March      Mar 14, 2024               48   Mar 12, 2024
CORN                                  March      Mar 14, 2024               25   Mar 07, 2024
SOYBEAN                               March      Mar 14, 2024               15   Mar 12, 2024
WHEAT                                 March      Mar 14, 2024               16   Mar 12, 2024
 
WHEAT
General Comments:   Wheat was mostly a little lower yesterday and trends are still turning                                        up in these markets.  It looks like the current prices have accounted for most or all of the bad news to hit Wheat futures.  USDA made no changes to its balance sheets last week.  Big world supplies and low world prices are still around.  Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period.  It is warm in the US and Canada this week.  Black Sea offers are still plentiful.  
Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be above normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near normal.  
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 539, 528, and 524 May, with resistance at 554, 560, and 572 May.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 612 and 634 May.  Support is at 591, 581, and 568 May, with resistance at 5608, 617, and 633 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectivesof 688 and 712 May.  Support is at 660, 641, and 635 May, and resistance is at 675, 681, and 688 May.
 
RICE
General Comments:  Rice closed a little higher yesterday and trends are turning sideways in this market.  Good demand for export continues.  The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US.  Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.  
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1803, 1827, and 1845 May.
 
CORN AND OATS
General Comments:  Corn was unchanged yesterday.    Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold.  Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might be under way.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns.   The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week.  More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil   The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress.  
Overnight News:  
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objective of 450 May.  Support is at 433, 429, and 422 May, and resistance is at 446, 448, and 459 May.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 362, 356, and 349 May, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 3769 May.
 
SOYBEANS
General Comments:  Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil.  Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week.  Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower.  Funds remain very large shorts in the market.  Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.  Rains are in the forecast in Argentina.  Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.  
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1220 and 1229 May.  Support is at 1175, 1165, and 1153 May, and resistance is at 1204, 1214, and 1233 May.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 344.00 and 353.00 May.  Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 4880, 4960, and 5070 May.  Support is at 4690, 4620, and 4550 May, with resistance at 4810, 4890, and 4910 May.
 
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments:   Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve.  Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve.  Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall.  The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported.   Trends are up on the daily charts.  Canola was higher with Chicago and Malaysia.  There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil.  Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.  The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.  
Overnight News:  
Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 632.00 and 662.00 May.  Support is at 610.00, 602.00, and 594.00 May, with resistance at 629.00, 638.00, and 644.00 May.  Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4150 May.  Support is at 4050, 4000, and 3960 May, with resistance at 4140, 4170, and 4200 May.
 
Midwest Weather Forecast   Mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.
 
                              
      
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
      
 
      
 
 
      
 
      
            
      
 
      
                              
                              
                              
Corn  HRW   SRW   Soybeans    Soybean Meal      Soybean Oil
54 Mar      165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar
      
57 May      185 May     85 May      68 May
      
58 May      165 May     85 May      71 May            
      
      
                  
 
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 13
  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           942.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr           942.50     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
May/Jun       927.50     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   875.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           950.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        –
Apr           950.00     +07.50      Unquoted   –        _
May/Jun       935.00     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
Jul/Aug/Sep   882.50     +15.00      Unquoted   –        –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           945.00     +05.00      Unquoted   –        –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           800.00      00.00      Unquoted   –        –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           4,270.00   +20.00     Unquoted   –        –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded
Mar           292.00     +10.00      Unquoted   –        –  
($1=MYR4.688)
 
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 123,349 lots, or 5.81 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Mar-24     4,690     4,694     4,690     4,694     4,641     4,690        49        63       158
May-24     4,699     4,748     4,685     4,729     4,685     4,717        32   105,486   139,748
Jul-24     4,633     4,689     4,627     4,674     4,630     4,658        28     8,993    28,578
Sep-24     4,600     4,659     4,598     4,644     4,601     4,626        25     7,510    19,375
Nov-24     4,564     4,621     4,564     4,606     4,567     4,595        28       574     3,214
Jan-25     4,550     4,606     4,550     4,595     4,553     4,578        25       723     3,543
Corn
Turnover: 356,975 lots, or 8.72 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Mar-24     2,410     2,410     2,410     2,410     2,409     2,410         1         1       549
May-24     2,439     2,446     2,433     2,438     2,444     2,440        -4   306,523   902,174
Jul-24     2,459     2,465     2,454     2,456     2,461     2,459        -2    27,336   236,417
Sep-24     2,453     2,459     2,449     2,452     2,452     2,453         1    17,706   186,107
Nov-24     2,423     2,429     2,420     2,423     2,423     2,425         2     3,489    21,746
Jan-25     2,410     2,412     2,405     2,408     2,407     2,408         1     1,920    11,277
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,044,319 lots, or 6.62 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.         Vol        Open
                                                  Settle                                    Interest
Mar-24         –         –         –     3,320     3,356     3,320       -36           0       1,341
May-24     3,237     3,257     3,201     3,218     3,228     3,226        -2   1,464,278   1,527,550
Jul-24     3,234     3,253     3,206     3,220     3,229     3,228        -1      45,124     147,507
Aug-24     3,285     3,303     3,268     3,278     3,281     3,281         0       4,965      32,082
Sep-24     3,280     3,296     3,260     3,269     3,274     3,274         0     472,817     990,455
Nov-24     3,267     3,284     3,251     3,260     3,262     3,265         3       6,045      37,459
Dec-24     3,288     3,301     3,271     3,283     3,287     3,284        -3         746      10,268
Jan-25     3,265     3,276     3,244     3,256     3,258     3,258         0      50,344     152,507
Palm Oil
Turnover: 666,004 lots, or 51.87 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Mar-24         –         –         –     7,700     7,700     7,700         0         0     4,111
Apr-24     7,982     8,058     7,962     8,048     7,982     8,014        32     1,105     2,546
May-24     7,820     7,904     7,804     7,900     7,820     7,854        34   572,136   524,641
Jun-24     7,668     7,752     7,656     7,752     7,654     7,696        42     1,136     2,880
Jul-24     7,566     7,644     7,540     7,644     7,548     7,592        44       396     3,403
Aug-24     7,466     7,530     7,444     7,530     7,438     7,494        56       384       729
Sep-24     7,354     7,428     7,336     7,422     7,338     7,382        44    84,407   161,729
Oct-24     7,264     7,338     7,250     7,336     7,252     7,298        46       128       375
Nov-24     7,222     7,288     7,210     7,286     7,216     7,258        42       126       538
Dec-24     7,184     7,248     7,184     7,248     7,174     7,222        48        89       175
Jan-25     7,142     7,216     7,142     7,216     7,126     7,176        50     5,868    10,192
Feb-25     7,156     7,200     7,140     7,200     7,106     7,168        62       229       181
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 525,286 lots, or 40.16 billion yuan
            Open      High       Low     Close     Prev.    Settle       Ch.       Vol      Open
                                                  Settle                                Interest
Mar-24         –         –         –     7,326     7,326     7,326         0         0         0
May-24     7,664     7,710     7,632     7,704     7,658     7,672        14   394,667   582,628
Jul-24     7,588     7,642     7,558     7,636     7,580     7,608        28     2,464    16,492
Aug-24     7,602     7,620     7,540     7,614     7,534     7,592        58       790     4,560
Sep-24     7,542     7,596     7,510     7,584     7,526     7,558        32   115,239   262,528
Nov-24     7,520     7,576     7,492     7,568     7,500     7,552        52     1,200     7,349
Dec-24     7,582     7,642     7,552     7,632     7,560     7,612        52       110     1,696
Jan-25     7,548     7,618     7,524     7,612     7,532     7,584        52    10,816    19,274  
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322        
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