Softs Report 03/11/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed sharply lower yesterday despite the changes made by USDA in its WASDE updates. USDA cut domestic production and increased demand for reduced ending stocks estimates. It also increased demand from India and China in the world estimates. It is too early to plant in Texas but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season and blackened soils might not permit much planting, anyway. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 93.89 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 21,233 bales, from 20,886 bales yesterday. ICE said that 2 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 9 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 95.30, 92.90, and 92.50 May, with resistance of 97.20, 98.40 and 100.50 May.

U.S.Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===================================================================
Item 2022/23 2023/24
prev Mar 8 prev Mar 8
===================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 13.75 13.75 10.23 10.23
Harvested 7.29 7.29 7.06 7.06
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 953.00 953.00 845.00 822.00
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.05 4.05 4.25 4.25
Production 14.47 14.47 12.43 12.10
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 18.52 18.52 16.69 16.36
Domestic use 2.05 2.05 1.75 1.75
Exports 12.77 12.77 12.30 12.30
Use, total 14.82 14.82 14.05 14.05
Unaccounted 2/ -0.55 -0.55 -0.16 -0.20
Ending stocks 4.25 4.25 2.80 2.50
Avg. farm price 3/ 84.80 84.80 77.00 77.00
===================================================================
Note: 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.
Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season’s supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2023/24 Proj.
World
Feb 82.97 112.82 42.88 112.46 42.87 -0.36 83.70
Mar 82.97 112.96 43.23 112.94 43.26 -0.40 83.34
World Less China
Feb 45.56 85.32 30.88 75.46 42.82 -0.36 43.84
Mar 45.56 85.46 30.33 75.44 43.21 -0.40 43.09
United States
Feb 4.25 12.43 0.01 1.75 12.30 -0.16 2.80
Mar 4.25 12.10 0.01 1.75 12.30 -0.20 2.50
Total Foreign
Feb 78.72 100.39 42.87 110.71 30.57 -0.20 80.90
Mar 78.72 100.86 43.23 111.19 30.96 -0.20 80.84
Major Exporters 4/
Feb 29.89 57.45 1.74 32.82 26.07 -0.20 30.39
Mar 29.89 57.91 1.73 33.13 26.36 -0.20 30.24
Major Importers 8/
Feb 45.87 39.54 38.60 74.04 2.68 0.00 47.29
Mar 45.87 39.54 38.99 74.23 2.78 0.00 47.39
================================================================================
WASDE – 646 – 28 March 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 323,096
: Positions :
: 96,527 25,537 70,340 56,859 207,879 81,154 10,118 304,879 313,873: 18,217 9,223
: Changes from: February 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -1,015) :
: -1,255 985 -402 2,345 -332 -391 -2,155 297 -1,904: -1,312 889
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 29.9 7.9 21.8 17.6 64.3 25.1 3.1 94.4 97.1: 5.6 2.9
: Total Traders: 320 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 144 48 97 53 68 52 17 276 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down Friday and lower for the week as USDA increased its US production estimates for Oranges slightly. The daily and weekly chart trends are mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 360.00, 350.00, and 343.00 May, with resistance at 378.00, 389.00, and 391.00 May.

Orange Production Up Less Than 1 Percent from February Forecast
The United States all orange forecast for the 2023-2024 season is
2.77 million tons, up less than 1 percent from the previous forecast and
up 11 percent from the 2022-2023 final utilization. The Florida all orange
forecast, at 19.8 million boxes (891,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 25 percent from last season’s final utilization. In
Florida, early, midseason, and Navel varieties are forecast at
6.80 million boxes (306,000 tons), unchanged from the previous forecast but
up 11 percent from last season’s final utilization. The Florida Valencia
orange forecast, at 13.0 million boxes (585,000 tons), is unchanged from the
previous forecast but up 35 percent from last season’s final utilization.
The California Valencia orange forecast is 8.00 million boxes (320,000 tons),
up 3 percent from previous forecast and up 19 percent from the previous
season. This results in a California all orange forecast of
46.0 million boxes (1.84 million tons), up less than 1 percent from the
previous forecast and up 6 percent from last season’s final utilization. The
forecast for Texas is carried forward from the previous forecast.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of March 5, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,559 :
: Positions :
: 2,801 5,593 586 61 138 2,481 1,030 13 1,143 888 2,405 :
: Changes from: February 27, 2024 :
: -452 -637 -168 -31 -27 -187 178 -11 -61 7 23 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.2 48.4 5.1 0.5 1.2 21.5 8.9 0.1 9.9 7.7 20.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 11 8 . . . 17 4 . 9 13 6 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower Friday but chart trends are up in both markets. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is good for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.424 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 185.64 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 22 delivery notices ere posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 974 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 201.00 May. Support is at 187.00, 182.00, and 180.00 May, and resistance is at 196.00, 201.00 and 204.00 May. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3260, 3220, and 3190 May, with resistance at 3460, 3480, and 3310 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 247,549
: Positions :
: 54,446 21,804 70,977 52,529 138,885 61,484 9,449 239,436 241,115: 8,113 6,434
: Changes from: February 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,012) :
: -264 -780 6,239 -539 2,781 2,084 458 7,520 8,698: 492 -687
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 8.8 28.7 21.2 56.1 24.8 3.8 96.7 97.4: 3.3 2.6
: Total Traders: 386 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 121 80 114 95 116 49 20 324 281:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week and trends are mixed on the daily charts. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market and are causing the selling. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2090, 2050, and 1930 May and resistance is at 2170, 2200, and 2260 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 595.00, 590.00, and 586.00 May, with resistance at 615.00, 624.00, and 638.00 May.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2021/22 2022/23 Est. 2023/24 Proj. 2023/24 Proj.
Item Feb Mar
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1705 1820 1843 1843
Production 2/ 9157 9250 9352 9243
Beet Sugar 5155 5187 5327 5172
Cane Sugar 4002 4063 4024 4071
Florida 1934 1985 2045 2095
Louisiana 1944 2001 1935 1936
Texas 124 76 44 40
Imports 3646 3614 3326 3331
TRQ 3/ 1579 1862 1612 1750
Other Program 4/ 298 141 200 200
Non-program 1769 1611 1514 1381
Mexico 1379 1156 799 666
High-tier tariff/other 390 455 715 715
Total Supply 14508 14685 14520 14416
Exports 29 82 160 160
Deliveries 12578 12589 12555 12555
Food 12470 12473 12450 12450
Other 5/ 107 116 105 105
Miscellaneous 81 171 0 0
Total Use 12688 12843 12715 12715
Ending Stocks 1820 1843 1805 1701
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 14.3 14.2 13.4
================================================================================
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
Sugar
2022/23 Est.
Feb 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
Mar 964 5224 285 4627 1011 835
2023/24 Proj.
Feb 835 4875 547 4648 709 900
Mar 835 4747 494 4593 595 889
================================================================================
WASDE – 646 – 17 March 2024

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,018,600
: Positions :
: 84,227 82,851 274,944 358,302 519,460 235,241 74,171 952,715 951,426: 65,886 67,174
: Changes from: February 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: 27,128) :
: -4,537 16,037 28,701 7,535 -26,634 1,087 4,703 32,786 22,806: -5,658 4,322
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 8.1 27.0 35.2 51.0 23.1 7.3 93.5 93.4: 6.5 6.6
: Total Traders: 231 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 54 76 70 66 40 20 201 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were lower on speculative long liquidation. Trends remain mostly up as both markets reflecting the lack of supply in the world market against demand from non traditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced by 500,000 tons this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.121 million bags. ICE NY said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,007 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 6850 May. Support is at 6290, 6200, and 5910 May, with resistance at 6680, 6740, and 6800 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 5180, 5040, and 4900 May, with resistance at 5620, 5720, and 5840 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of March 05, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 369,829
: Positions :
: 49,167 27,864 181,345 89,951 137,676 35,092 13,193 355,554 360,078: 14,275 9,751
: Changes from: February 27, 2024 (Change in open interest: -26,348) :
: -2,264 -807 -17,981 -5,613 -6,873 293 -866 -25,565 -26,526: -784 178
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.3 7.5 49.0 24.3 37.2 9.5 3.6 96.1 97.4: 3.9 2.6
: Total Traders: 230 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 52 88 38 38 32 14 199 160:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322