Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 6:00 A.M., Unemployment, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand & WASDE at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
After last night’s State of the Union Address the market will be following the numbers in all reports today… As we buckle up our chinstraps, let’s remind or refresh what we have seen so far this year. In this mild winter Ag Resources (ARC) reports, except of 2-weeks in January, much of the Central Midwest has seen a mild and dry winter, and conditions have continued in unofficial spring. Warmer-than-normal temps and dry conditions have allowed producers to get a jump on spring fertilizer, drainage, and tillage work and will be in the best position in year’s when it’s time to plant. Average soil temperatures in Peoria, Il, which have been above average since the start of February and briefly passed the 50 degree threshold in early March. The latest weather forecast suggests that after a cool down this weekend, soil temps should be well above 50 degrees next week. Initial crop insurance planting dates range from April 1st in the Southern 3rd of IL, April 5th on the Central 3rd, and April 10th in the North. However, producers will be the best prepared in year, and given the right conditions early planting could be underway ahead of crop insurance dates.
The South American weather update has the EU & GFS models consistent in trimming projected rainfall totals across a majority of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt. It’s still not a pattern of complete dryness, but weekly rainfall in excess of 2” (normal) will be confined to NE Argentina and Southern Brazil and areas just Morth of major crop production in N Brazil. Scattered rains will not dot all of Brazil into next Mon/Tues. Showers remain scattered in nature in the 6-10 day period and shift northward into pockets of Mato Grosso and far Northern Brazil. Little to no rain is advertised in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo – where moisture concerns are highest following recent heat & dryness. Brazilian temps lean to normal/above normal into late month. Very close attention must be paid to the trend in the Brazilian forecast.
With US farmers getting the jump on early plantings, early South American yields, and funds at record or near record short positions, we could see a test of the bulls nerves and/or passion. (ARC) reports, crop sizes in the crosshairs of the market with traders expecting limited change in Argentine crops, but a 350 MMT’s fall in the Brazilian soybean crop to 152.50 MMT’s. It’s Brazilian soybean crop size that could sway over the market and possibly a trend gamechanger.
Unemployment & WASDE – Roll The Dice. The Corn & Ethanol Report 03/08/2024
We kickoff the day with Fed Williams Speech at 6:00 A.M., Unemployment, Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Crop Production USDA Supply/Demand & WASDE at 11:00 A.M., and Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count at 12:00 P.M.
After last night’s State of the Union Address the market will be following the numbers in all reports today… As we buckle up our chinstraps, let’s remind or refresh what we have seen so far this year. In this mild winter Ag Resources (ARC) reports, except of 2-weeks in January, much of the Central Midwest has seen a mild and dry winter, and conditions have continued in unofficial spring. Warmer-than-normal temps and dry conditions have allowed producers to get a jump on spring fertilizer, drainage, and tillage work and will be in the best position in year’s when it’s time to plant. Average soil temperatures in Peoria, Il, which have been above average since the start of February and briefly passed the 50 degree threshold in early March. The latest weather forecast suggests that after a cool down this weekend, soil temps should be well above 50 degrees next week. Initial crop insurance planting dates range from April 1st in the Southern 3rd of IL, April 5th on the Central 3rd, and April 10th in the North. However, producers will be the best prepared in year, and given the right conditions early planting could be underway ahead of crop insurance dates.
The South American weather update has the EU & GFS models consistent in trimming projected rainfall totals across a majority of Brazil’s safrinha corn belt. It’s still not a pattern of complete dryness, but weekly rainfall in excess of 2” (normal) will be confined to NE Argentina and Southern Brazil and areas just Morth of major crop production in N Brazil. Scattered rains will not dot all of Brazil into next Mon/Tues. Showers remain scattered in nature in the 6-10 day period and shift northward into pockets of Mato Grosso and far Northern Brazil. Little to no rain is advertised in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo – where moisture concerns are highest following recent heat & dryness. Brazilian temps lean to normal/above normal into late month. Very close attention must be paid to the trend in the Brazilian forecast.
With US farmers getting the jump on early plantings, early South American yields, and funds at record or near record short positions, we could see a test of the bulls nerves and/or passion. (ARC) reports, crop sizes in the crosshairs of the market with traders expecting limited change in Argentine crops, but a 350 MMT’s fall in the Brazilian soybean crop to 152.50 MMT’s. It’s Brazilian soybean crop size that could sway over the market and possibly a trend gamechanger.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn