Grains Report. 03/08/2024

DJ Food Prices Fell Further in February, UN Says
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices fell further in February, when lower prices for cereals more than offset increases in sugar and meat, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on Friday.
The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 117.3 points in February, down 0.7% from January’s level and around 10.5% lower from a year earlier. In January, food prices fell 1% from the previous month.
Cereal prices fell 5% in February, driven by lower prices for maize and wheat. Sharp price declines for maize reflected expectations of large harvests in South America and competitive prices offered by Ukraine, the FAO said. Wheat prices decreased mostly due to a strong export pace from the Russian Federation.
Meat prices rose by 1.8% in February, breaking a seven-month streak of declines, with poultry prices rising the most and followed by bovine meat rises. This reflects heavy rains disrupting cattle transportation in Australia. Meanwhile, pig meat prices also slightly rose, on higher China demand and tight supply in Western Europe.
Sugar prices were up 3.2% from January’s levels, due to persistent concerns over Brazil’s output after a prolonged period of dryer-than-normal weather conditions, as well as unfavorable production outlooks in leading exporters Thailand and India.
Vegetable oil prices fell 1.3% in February, to stand 11% down on-year. This reflects a marked drop in soyoil prices, reflecting expectations of a strong harvest of soybeans in South America, along with ample global export availabilities of sunflower and rapeseed oils, according to the latest FAO report.
Dairy prices rose 1.1% from January levels, pushed up by higher import demand from Asia for butter, while milk powders and cheese prices also marginally rose.

DJ U.S. March Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-2023
Corn 2,141 2,075-2,172 2,172 1,360
Soybeans 319 293-355 315 264
Wheat 658 648-682 658 570
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 2,152 315 653
Allendale 2,172 335 658
Doane 2,075 300 650
Grain Cycles 2,147 315 658
Linn Group 2,125 314 658
Sid Love Consulting 2,122 315 658
Marex Group 2,172 325 658
Midland Research 2,172 315 658
Midwest Market Solutions 2,095 355 650
Northstar Commodity 2,170 320 650
Ocean State Research 2,164 293 681
Prime Ag 2,172 315 658
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 2,172 320 665
RJ O’Brien 2,092 353 648
StoneX 2,077 295 682
US Commodities Inc. 2,155 310 650
Vantage RM 2,152 320 658
Zaner Ag 2,157 320 658

DJ March World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA February USDA 2022-23
Corn 320.7 317.0-323.2 322.1 300.3
Soybeans 114.5 111.0-117.0 116.0 103.6
Wheat 259.1 257.0-260.2 259.4 271.2
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 321.8 114.5 259.2
Allendale 322.1 117.0 259.0
Grain Cycles 320.5 114.0 258.0
Linn Group 317.0 111.0 260.0
Marex Group 322.0 117.0 260.0
Midwest Market Solutions 323.2 116.5 260.0
Northstar Commodity 322.0 115.0 257.0
Ocean State Research 321.5 115.0 260.0
Prime Ag 321.0 114.0 259.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities Inc. 320.0 115.0 259.4
StoneX 318.7 113.4 260.2
US Commodities Inc. 318.0 112.0 259.0
Zaner Ag 320.7 114.1 257.7

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 11, 2024 100 Feb 27, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 11, 2024 105 Mar 05, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 11, 2024 2 Mar 07, 2024
CORN March Mar 11, 2024 26 Mar 01, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 11, 2024 33 Feb 28, 2024
WHEAT March Mar 11, 2024 229 Mar 07, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly higher yesterday, with Chicago SRW mixed, on reports of weaker world prices amid a lack of demand against an increase in demand. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. There were some reports that Algeria was a major buyer of Russian Wheat this week and Egypt has tendered as well. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were lower. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices are still weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal. USDA said that China cancelled purchases of 110,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 May, with resistance at 554, 560, and 572 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 552, 546, and 540 May, with resistance at 580, 592, and 602 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 675 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday and trends remain down in this market. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1773, 1759, and 1751 May and resistance is at 1827, 1845, and 1877 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday, but trends are still trying to turn up on the daily chart. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 441, 446, and 448 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 349, 344, and 340 May, and resistance is at 368, 374, and 376 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on speculative buying and on reports of stronger basis levels and great export demand in Brazil. Report indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans in the last week. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1148, 1128, and 1122 May, and resistance is at 1166, 1180, and 1192 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 329.00, and 307.00 May, and resistance is at 335.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4680, 4730, and 4810 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower yesterday in correction trading after a big rally the day before on production problems in Southeast Asia and as the export pace is expected to really improve. Domestic biofuels demand is also likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 594.00, 585.00, and 576.00 May, with resistance at 605.00, 610.00, and 618.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4150 May. Support is at 3960, 3910, and 3870 May, with resistance at 4110, 4140, and 4170 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 927.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 927.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 895.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 935.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 935.00 +20.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 902.50 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 852.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 930.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 790.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,220.00 +80.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 276.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.684)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 101,702 lots, or 4.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,638 4,641 4,638 4,641 4,635 4,638 3 140 248
May-24 4,658 4,684 4,649 4,668 4,628 4,665 37 89,600 140,378
Jul-24 4,613 4,625 4,598 4,615 4,582 4,612 30 5,380 29,549
Sep-24 4,581 4,595 4,570 4,590 4,559 4,583 24 5,370 20,519
Nov-24 4,538 4,557 4,535 4,556 4,523 4,547 24 589 3,735
Jan-25 4,525 4,549 4,525 4,548 4,512 4,536 24 623 4,073
Corn
Turnover: 561,674 lots, or 13.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,418 2,418 2,396 2,396 2,418 2,405 -13 4,476 2,659
May-24 2,456 2,461 2,442 2,445 2,457 2,451 -6 458,820 915,280
Jul-24 2,478 2,480 2,463 2,464 2,476 2,471 -5 60,882 230,956
Sep-24 2,465 2,468 2,452 2,454 2,465 2,458 -7 27,228 171,949
Nov-24 2,422 2,430 2,417 2,417 2,428 2,421 -7 8,213 19,510
Jan-25 2,414 2,417 2,406 2,407 2,414 2,410 -4 2,055 9,228
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,501,483 lots, or 80.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,185 3,280 3,185 3,280 3,185 3,216 31 394 1,351
May-24 3,165 3,236 3,151 3,234 3,131 3,185 54 1,800,346 1,604,731
Jul-24 3,170 3,236 3,161 3,235 3,140 3,195 55 77,423 151,237
Aug-24 3,229 3,286 3,229 3,285 3,209 3,253 44 5,814 29,749
Sep-24 3,231 3,272 3,221 3,269 3,200 3,243 43 543,743 970,209
Nov-24 3,225 3,263 3,219 3,261 3,198 3,239 41 11,344 39,483
Dec-24 3,258 3,295 3,254 3,290 3,238 3,274 36 1,735 10,616
Jan-25 3,235 3,267 3,231 3,264 3,216 3,246 30 60,684 113,129
Palm Oil
Turnover: 769,873 lots, or 59.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,700 7,700 7,700 0 0 4,111
Apr-24 7,854 7,986 7,834 7,986 7,824 7,904 80 2,646 3,226
May-24 7,706 7,820 7,684 7,818 7,688 7,750 62 656,863 516,294
Jun-24 7,560 7,652 7,534 7,644 7,536 7,604 68 1,012 2,705
Jul-24 7,448 7,526 7,422 7,514 7,426 7,488 62 471 3,263
Aug-24 7,358 7,430 7,338 7,406 7,348 7,390 42 368 742
Sep-24 7,368 7,368 7,232 7,316 7,252 7,290 38 106,154 153,540
Oct-24 7,166 7,250 7,152 7,220 7,168 7,204 36 185 455
Nov-24 7,092 7,186 7,092 7,166 7,106 7,142 36 119 640
Dec-24 7,054 7,124 7,054 7,110 7,060 7,088 28 46 147
Jan-25 7,020 7,086 6,998 7,062 7,006 7,042 36 1,873 3,699
Feb-25 6,990 7,058 6,990 7,032 7,002 7,030 28 136 125
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 631,993 lots, or 47.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 – – – 7,502 7,502 7,502 0 0 625
May-24 7,548 7,658 7,506 7,646 7,502 7,584 82 500,654 585,491
Jul-24 7,484 7,586 7,456 7,568 7,462 7,536 74 2,755 19,054
Aug-24 7,484 7,572 7,446 7,550 7,458 7,522 64 1,105 7,285
Sep-24 7,452 7,538 7,416 7,528 7,420 7,486 66 122,715 225,302
Nov-24 7,408 7,506 7,392 7,488 7,392 7,468 76 783 6,979
Dec-24 7,474 7,554 7,452 7,532 7,438 7,524 86 141 1,628
Jan-25 7,428 7,530 7,406 7,514 7,410 7,478 68 3,840 6,834
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322