Grains Report 03/04/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 05, 2024 1 Dec 29, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 05, 2024 330 Feb 27, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 05, 2024 12 Feb 29, 2024
CORN March Mar 05, 2024 113 Feb 07, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 05, 2024 225 Feb 28, 2024
WHEAT March Mar 05, 2024 318 Feb 22, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little higher last week., but SRW futures were a little lower and all prices remain in a trading range. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 569, 560, and 554 May, with resistance at 589, 594, and 599 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 558, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 566, 592, and 608 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 641, 635, and 629 May, and resistance is at 660, 668, and 672 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 414,999
: Positions :
: 63,204 137,082 101,511 60,944 91,141 158,619 51,011 384,277 380,745: 30,722 34,254
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -40,297) :
: -1,480 -2,822 -25,250 -9,992 1,347 -710 -9,689 -37,433 -36,414: -2,864 -3,883
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 33.0 24.5 14.7 22.0 38.2 12.3 92.6 91.7: 7.4 8.3
: Total Traders: 342 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 123 116 76 80 48 31 272 276:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 261,559
: Positions :
: 34,560 86,380 60,704 59,892 67,807 86,864 25,822 242,020 240,714: 19,539 20,845
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -7,794) :
: 2,172 1,345 -2,882 760 -1,002 -5,734 -1,790 -5,684 -4,329: -2,110 -3,465
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 33.0 23.2 22.9 25.9 33.2 9.9 92.5 92.0: 7.5 8.0
: Total Traders: 222 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 41 64 57 62 65 38 21 174 175:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 69,882 :
: Positions :
: 38,357 13,182 1,492 629 221 6,443 32,411 6,920 1,681 1,922 4,351 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: -866 -3,205 -639 35 -139 -722 1,079 134 -100 -456 -1,901 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.9 18.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 9.2 46.4 9.9 2.4 2.8 6.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 116 :
: 47 37 4 . . 8 29 9 8 8 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week and held to a trading range. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1819, 1811, and 1795 May and resistance is at 1875, 1877, and 1907 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,674 :
: Positions :
: 2,572 9,977 108 0 0 5,453 565 91 1,250 561 468 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: 24 346 -24 0 -29 263 -204 -10 162 25 -106 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 78.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 43.0 4.5 0.7 9.9 4.4 3.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 15 20 . 0 0 20 . . 13 4 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher last week on what appeared to be speculative short covering. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News: Taiwan bought 110,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 446 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 358, and 349 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,896,360
: Positions :
: 137,729 434,682 580,669 524,905 477,880 457,578 185,827 1,700,881 1,679,058: 195,479 217,301
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -157,526) :
: 6,270 -38,703 -77,425 -76,038 -39,351 -1,927 16,570 -149,121 -138,908: -8,405 -18,617
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 22.9 30.6 27.7 25.2 24.1 9.8 89.7 88.5: 10.3 11.5
: Total Traders: 732 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 160 179 334 330 50 37 598 612:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,081 :
: Positions :
: 1,049 1,323 0 62 0 0 598 0 580 155 138 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 34.1 42.9 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 19.4 0.0 18.8 5.0 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 7 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 . . 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed a little higher last week, with Soybeans closing higher for only the third week since November. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1128, 1122, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1151, 1161, and 1180 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 922,159
: Positions :
: 45,980 224,481 276,394 357,308 272,501 183,310 76,431 862,991 849,807: 59,168 72,352
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -115,419) :
: -4,340 13,482 -59,405 -48,986 -77,699 -1,865 8,992 -114,595 -114,631: -823 -788
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 5.0 24.3 30.0 38.7 29.6 19.9 8.3 93.6 92.2: 6.4 7.8
: Total Traders: 511 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 158 168 175 175 47 33 418 434:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 558,317
: Positions :
: 51,314 128,230 150,624 160,622 214,664 166,082 37,557 528,641 531,074: 29,676 27,243
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -46,054) :
: 1,601 1,469 -20,607 -22,597 -25,999 -4,725 -1,142 -46,328 -46,279: 273 224
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.2 23.0 27.0 28.8 38.4 29.7 6.7 94.7 95.1: 5.3 4.9
: Total Traders: 317 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 81 97 93 93 44 22 257 248:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 540,992
: Positions :
: 47,797 120,557 135,115 188,781 205,130 118,755 43,033 490,449 503,834: 50,543 37,158
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 (Change in open interest: -57,624) :
: -5,039 12,848 -41,226 -6,073 -36,470 -2,697 4,806 -55,035 -60,041: -2,589 2,417
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 22.3 25.0 34.9 37.9 22.0 8.0 90.7 93.1: 9.3 6.9
: Total Traders: 328 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 85 92 121 102 42 21 275 250:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. It was lower tody on the weaker export pace. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3910, 3870, and 3810 May, with resistance at 4030, 4060, and 4090 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 45,660 :
: Positions :
: 31,090 20,871 1,070 10,828 1,380 0 1,360 320 3,640 2,761 8,140 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: 2,400 540 -40 1,980 -180 0 420 -40 1,180 520 -320 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 68.1 45.7 2.3 23.7 3.0 0.0 3.0 0.7 8.0 6.0 17.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 8 11 . . . 0 . . 5 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 27, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 296,450 :
: Positions :
: 243,638 90,194 3,914 2,905 4,273 7,692 157,979 19,603 6,648 10,236 8,945 :
: Changes from: February 20, 2024 :
: -7,455 -7,577 459 211 -75 -1,374 -969 -2,183 188 312 -755 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 82.2 30.4 1.3 1.0 1.4 2.6 53.3 6.6 2.2 3.5 3.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 322 :
: 56 56 . 6 6 16 102 23 43 64 45 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

April
55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysiaports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 882.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 880.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 852.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 890.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 887.50 +02.50
May/Jun 860.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 890.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 760.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 270.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7285)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322