Softs Report 03/01/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed lower yesterday and price trends are still up on the daily charts on reports of stronger demand and reports of wildfires in northern Texas. It is too early to plant but the heat and dry weather raises concerns about production potential later in the growing season. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 95.87 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,022 bales, from 1,022 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 1 contact.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 97.20, 96.70, and 96.00 May, with resistance of 100.50, 101.80 and 103.00 May.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in correction trading after two sharply lower to limit down sessions this week. The daily chart trends ar3e mixed. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil but held late last week as current supplies remain very tight amid only incremental relief for supplies is forecast for the coming new crop season. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 300 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 300 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 343.00, 335.00, and 329.00 May, with resistance at 364.00, 371.00, and 378.00 May.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and prices remain in trading ranges. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well as they apparently have already sold a lot. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.3453million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 180.11 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 88 delivery notices were posted against March contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 788 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 178.00, 173.00, and 169.00 May, and resistance is at 186.00, 190.00 and 194.00 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2980, 2890, and 2780 May, with resistance at 3120, 3180, and 3200 May.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and trends are mixed on the daily charts. Ideas of weaker demand are around the market right now. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Unica in Brazil said that the Sugar crush in south central Brazil as 549,000 tons, up 650% from last year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 25,751 notices were posgted for delivery against March contracts today.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2160, 2110, and 2090 May and resistance is at 2260, 2290, and 2340 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 610.00, 601.00, and 586.00 May, with resistance at 638.00, 645.00, and 651.00 May.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher after a sharply lower close the previous day and possibly topped out on what appeared to be some speculative profit taking as both markets reflect on the lack of supply in the world market against demand from non traditional sources along with traditional buyers. Production in West Africa could be reduced by 500,000 tons this year due to the extreme weather which now includes Harmattan conditions. Both markets kept the short term trends up. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Demand continues strong, especially from non traditional buyers of Cocoa. Ghana now estimates Cocoa production between 650,000 and 700,000 tons, the lowest production in 14 years.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.156 million bags. ICE NY said that 317 notices were posted for delivery against March futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 990 contacts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 5910, 5870, and 5600 May, with resistance at 6370, 6650, and 6680 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 5040, 4900, and 4800 May, with resistance at 5360, 5600, and 5720 May.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322