About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Mar 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 04, 2024 1 Dec 29, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 04, 2024 37 Feb 01, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 04, 2024 53 Feb 29, 2024
CORN March Mar 04, 2024 3 Sep 12, 2023
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 04, 2024 10 Feb 14, 2024
OATS March Mar 04, 2024 10 Jan 24, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 04, 2024 502 Feb 28, 2024
WHEAT March Mar 04, 2024 116 Feb 22, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday and prices remain in a trading range. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 569, 560, and 554 May, with resistance at 589, 594, and 599 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 576, 558, and 552 May, with resistance at 592, 608, and 617 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 653, 650, and 641 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 675 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and held to a trading range. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1811, and 1795 May and resistance is at 1857, 1875, and 1907 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 446 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 362, 358, and 349 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower from ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Soybean Oil was higher. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1128, 1122, and 1116 May, and resistance is at 1151, 1161, and 1180 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3910, 3870, and 3810 May, with resistance at 3980, 4030, and 4060 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

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US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

April
55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – March 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 880.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 877.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 855.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 825.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 887.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 885.00 -05.00 Unquoted – _
May/Jun 862.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 890.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 760.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,070.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 268.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7428)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Mar 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 138,443 lots, or 6.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,596 4,649 4,584 4,626 4,596 4,614 18 1,015 5,213
May-24 4,498 4,552 4,469 4,546 4,508 4,524 16 119,196 183,129
Jul-24 4,470 4,511 4,440 4,511 4,473 4,483 10 8,566 29,966
Sep-24 4,456 4,503 4,435 4,503 4,467 4,480 13 7,494 21,376
Nov-24 4,442 4,477 4,424 4,476 4,451 4,456 5 1,541 3,993
Jan-25 4,443 4,469 4,421 4,466 4,445 4,452 7 631 4,231
Corn
Turnover: 491,492 lots, or 12.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,425 2,425 2,405 2,408 2,395 2,415 20 197 5,055
May-24 2,462 2,473 2,454 2,462 2,456 2,464 8 425,327 957,880
Jul-24 2,478 2,490 2,473 2,482 2,476 2,482 6 34,300 235,188
Sep-24 2,468 2,480 2,466 2,470 2,467 2,473 6 25,897 152,425
Nov-24 2,432 2,439 2,426 2,430 2,428 2,433 5 4,341 17,327
Jan-25 2,416 2,421 2,411 2,416 2,416 2,417 1 1,430 7,636
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,867,520 lots, or 57.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,090 3,155 3,051 3,110 3,093 3,092 -1 1,146 2,093
May-24 3,003 3,089 3,000 3,086 3,021 3,049 28 1,471,222 1,649,188
Jul-24 3,022 3,102 3,016 3,097 3,037 3,066 29 47,958 191,879
Aug-24 3,101 3,178 3,089 3,176 3,109 3,138 29 4,036 32,879
Sep-24 3,093 3,173 3,083 3,170 3,106 3,131 25 314,203 870,431
Nov-24 3,100 3,173 3,086 3,170 3,104 3,122 18 9,330 46,206
Dec-24 3,151 3,216 3,145 3,216 3,152 3,190 38 882 12,025
Jan-25 3,140 3,210 3,133 3,210 3,152 3,178 26 18,743 86,504
Palm Oil
Turnover: 511,774 lots, or 38.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,700 7,700 7,700 7,700 7,598 7,700 102 18 4,111
Apr-24 7,610 7,722 7,610 7,714 7,584 7,674 90 1,780 3,474
May-24 7,486 7,570 7,470 7,562 7,444 7,520 76 455,206 463,721
Jun-24 7,322 7,410 7,320 7,400 7,292 7,364 72 475 2,095
Jul-24 7,194 7,278 7,190 7,272 7,174 7,232 58 764 3,379
Aug-24 7,108 7,176 7,090 7,168 7,050 7,140 90 179 1,543
Sep-24 7,010 7,082 6,986 7,074 6,968 7,038 70 52,409 133,519
Oct-24 6,936 7,010 6,922 6,992 6,920 6,962 42 133 434
Nov-24 6,906 6,964 6,880 6,964 6,878 6,930 52 67 624
Dec-24 6,844 6,938 6,844 6,922 6,844 6,902 58 38 139
Jan-25 6,832 6,916 6,826 6,910 6,812 6,872 60 673 1,886
Feb-25 6,834 6,906 6,828 6,896 6,804 6,864 60 32 46
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 481,046 lots, or 35.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,300 7,634 7,300 7,634 7,414 7,532 118 290 628
May-24 7,342 7,444 7,330 7,438 7,322 7,390 68 405,919 575,196
Jul-24 7,294 7,384 7,282 7,376 7,264 7,340 76 2,775 20,268
Aug-24 7,282 7,368 7,276 7,366 7,268 7,332 64 943 7,362
Sep-24 7,256 7,338 7,248 7,336 7,232 7,296 64 68,318 187,249
Nov-24 7,234 7,316 7,230 7,312 7,220 7,280 60 724 7,591
Dec-24 7,318 7,394 7,308 7,394 7,294 7,368 74 61 1,804
Jan-25 7,276 7,374 7,276 7,372 7,260 7,336 76 2,016 8,720
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322