Grains Report 02/29/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Feb 29
For the week ended Feb 22, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 327.3 -5.2 18163.2 17134.7 5753.5 372.5
hrw 70.7 -11.2 3291.1 4674.3 1035.6 37.1
srw 25.5 6.0 4596.8 2672.6 2046.6 166.4
hrs 161.4 0.0 6071.5 5202.4 1623.0 100.0
white 66.6 0.0 3743.3 4272.4 932.4 12.0
durum 3.1 0.0 460.5 313.1 115.9 57.0
corn 1082.3 165.0 38117.8 29238.0 17920.4 1619.8
soybeans 159.7 0.0 39023.5 48693.2 6320.3 189.8
soymeal 456.2 6.4 9458.8 7725.4 3869.0 17.6
soyoil 3.0 0.0 32.2 52.0 19.6 0.6
upland cotton 40.0 13.4 10477.3 10528.8 5133.9 822.3
pima cotton 5.5 0.0 236.4 136.2 59.5 3.3
sorghum 445.5 0.0 4851.4 1052.8 1492.1 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.9 12.3 14.0
rice 60.9 0.0 2427.1 1385.9 723.7 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Feb 29
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL March Mar 01, 2024 1 Aug 18, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL March Mar 01, 2024 271 Feb 01, 2024
ROUGH RICE March Mar 01, 2024 593 Feb 28, 2024
KC HRW WHEAT March Mar 01, 2024 56 Feb 13, 2024
SOYBEAN March Mar 01, 2024 702 Feb 26, 2024
WHEAT March Mar 01, 2024 484 Feb 22, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday as what appeared to be speculative short covering before the March deliveries dried up. Prices remain in a trading range. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 560, 554, and 548 May, with resistance at 594, 599, and 608 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 558, 552, and 546 May, with resistance at 592, 608, and 617 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 654, 650, and 641 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 675 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday as the speculative long liquidation before First Notice Day continued. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1811, and 1795 May and resistance is at 1857, 1875, and 1907 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering before First Notice Day. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 430, 434, and 441 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher, with Soybeans feeling some short covering by speculators before the start of deliveries but selling pressure from ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Soybean Oil was lower. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1134, 1128, and 1122 May, and resistance is at 1161, 1180, and 1192 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4420, 4360, a6nd 4300 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and as short covering from speculators was noted. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3870, 3810, and 3790 May, with resistance at 3960, 3990, and 4030 May.

DJ Repeat & Correct: Malaysia Feb. 1-29 Palm Oil Exports Fell 18% on Month to 1,000,348 Tons, AmSpec Says
“Malaysia Feb. 1-29 Palm Oil Exports Fell 21% on Month to 969,842 Tons, AmSpec Says,” at 0657 GMT, had incorrect data. The errors also appeared in headlines at 0652 GMT and 0653 GMT. The correct version follows:
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Feb. 1-29 period are estimated down 18% on month at 1,000,348 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Feb. 1-29 Jan. 1-31
RBD Palm Olein 301,236 303,936
RBD Palm Oil 105,282 98,730
RBD Palm Stearin 83,119 90,824
Crude Palm Oil 237,815 308,811
Total* 1,000,348 1,227,101
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

April
55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 887.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 882.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 852.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 827.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 895.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 890.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 860.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 835.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 895.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 765.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,070.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 267.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.748)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 174,646 lots, or 7.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,572 4,615 4,560 4,604 4,581 4,596 15 20,805 9,984
May-24 4,491 4,530 4,483 4,503 4,525 4,508 -17 135,875 196,726
Jul-24 4,475 4,487 4,458 4,470 4,496 4,473 -23 9,275 30,417
Sep-24 4,467 4,482 4,455 4,463 4,484 4,467 -17 6,863 21,915
Nov-24 4,450 4,462 4,440 4,441 4,463 4,451 -12 1,047 3,890
Jan-25 4,448 4,458 4,439 4,439 4,459 4,445 -14 781 4,276
Corn
Turnover: 436,279 lots, or 1.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,392 2,442 2,385 2,407 2,398 2,395 -3 6,816 5,841
May-24 2,452 2,465 2,448 2,462 2,458 2,456 -2 368,314 960,092
Jul-24 2,475 2,483 2,468 2,481 2,478 2,476 -2 36,404 239,089
Sep-24 2,462 2,473 2,461 2,469 2,468 2,467 -1 21,141 149,406
Nov-24 2,426 2,432 2,423 2,430 2,434 2,428 -6 2,361 17,959
Jan-25 2,413 2,419 2,413 2,417 2,421 2,416 -5 1,243 7,250
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,222,558 lots, or 37.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,086 3,114 3,031 3,058 3,095 3,093 -2 9,301 2,593
May-24 3,020 3,036 3,005 3,021 3,028 3,021 -7 963,079 1,648,154
Jul-24 3,033 3,050 3,021 3,037 3,040 3,037 -3 29,483 199,503
Aug-24 3,115 3,123 3,096 3,110 3,121 3,109 -12 5,198 32,995
Sep-24 3,106 3,118 3,091 3,106 3,113 3,106 -7 201,581 832,769
Nov-24 3,104 3,117 3,092 3,108 3,111 3,104 -7 3,915 47,398
Dec-24 3,157 3,166 3,142 3,159 3,161 3,152 -9 700 12,309
Jan-25 3,143 3,161 3,136 3,153 3,156 3,152 -4 9,301 84,795
Palm Oil
Turnover: 503,629 lots, or 37.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,506 7,720 7,506 7,704 7,540 7,598 58 502 4,129
Apr-24 7,528 7,620 7,522 7,620 7,536 7,584 48 1,516 3,125
May-24 7,392 7,494 7,380 7,478 7,398 7,444 46 452,886 429,006
Jun-24 7,230 7,330 7,230 7,324 7,244 7,292 48 311 2,067
Jul-24 7,110 7,200 7,110 7,196 7,112 7,174 62 512 3,297
Aug-24 7,042 7,094 7,020 7,094 7,016 7,050 34 160 1,519
Sep-24 6,928 7,010 6,912 7,000 6,940 6,968 28 46,881 130,161
Oct-24 6,906 6,948 6,890 6,928 6,892 6,920 28 86 445
Nov-24 6,860 6,900 6,848 6,896 6,856 6,878 22 106 629
Dec-24 6,824 6,862 6,824 6,862 6,828 6,844 16 52 138
Jan-25 6,796 6,840 6,784 6,832 6,796 6,812 16 604 1,890
Feb-25 6,808 6,828 6,784 6,828 6,786 6,804 18 13 42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 433,481 lots, or 31.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,424 7,596 7,022 7,400 7,428 7,414 -14 577 807
May-24 7,266 7,360 7,262 7,358 7,310 7,322 12 360,917 576,298
Jul-24 7,226 7,304 7,214 7,304 7,248 7,264 16 3,073 20,137
Aug-24 7,228 7,294 7,228 7,292 7,246 7,268 22 773 7,473
Sep-24 7,192 7,266 7,182 7,262 7,220 7,232 12 65,947 187,690
Nov-24 7,204 7,244 7,164 7,244 7,206 7,220 14 742 7,651
Dec-24 7,266 7,310 7,266 7,300 7,262 7,294 32 94 1,798
Jan-25 7,210 7,292 7,206 7,290 7,238 7,260 22 1,358 8,173
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322