Grains Report 02/28/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering before the March deliveries get started tomorrow. Prices remain in a trading range but are near the upper end of the range. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 576, 560, and 554 May, with resistance at 594, 599, and 608 May. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 576, 558, and 552 May, with resistance at 592, 608, and 617 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 655, 650, and 641 May, and resistance is at 668, 672, and 675 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday as the speculative long liquidation before First Notice Day continued. Strong demand for export continues as well. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1820, 1811, and 1795 May and resistance is at 1857, 1875, and 1907 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering before First Notice Day. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 422, 409, and 406 May, and resistance is at 429, 434, and 441 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 376, 379, and 381 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower, and the products were mixed, with Soybeans feeling some short covering by speculators before the start of deliveries but selling pressure from ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1134, 1128, and 1122 May, and resistance is at 1161, 1180, and 1192 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 334.00, 338.00, and 345.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4510, 4420, a6nd 4360 May, with resistance at 4620, 4680, and 4750 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and as short covering from speculators was noted. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 585.00, 576.00, and 570.00 May, with resistance at 598.00, 605.00, and 610.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3980 and 4090 May. Support is at 3870, 3810, and 3790 May, with resistance at 3960, 3990, and 4030 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

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US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 64 Mar 170 Mar
105 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 105 Mar 80 Mar

April
55 May 170 May 100 May 74 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 877.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 867.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 840.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 885.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 820.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 880.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 752.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,030.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 265.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7665)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 159,705 lots, or 7.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,615 4,620 4,561 4,574 4,602 4,581 -21 13,605 26,922
May-24 4,555 4,565 4,490 4,491 4,548 4,525 -23 127,583 202,230
Jul-24 4,518 4,524 4,463 4,463 4,508 4,496 -12 9,819 29,047
Sep-24 4,496 4,510 4,458 4,458 4,492 4,484 -8 7,107 20,211
Nov-24 4,483 4,491 4,446 4,446 4,475 4,463 -12 791 3,575
Jan-25 4,480 4,484 4,444 4,444 4,469 4,459 -10 800 3,779
Corn
Turnover: 503,529 lots, or 12.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,394 2,404 2,391 2,391 2,394 2,398 4 7,519 10,177
May-24 2,452 2,465 2,451 2,452 2,453 2,458 5 407,248 961,603
Jul-24 2,480 2,485 2,471 2,472 2,474 2,478 4 51,806 243,159
Sep-24 2,462 2,472 2,460 2,463 2,457 2,468 11 27,813 149,700
Nov-24 2,431 2,440 2,424 2,425 2,424 2,434 10 7,873 18,175
Jan-25 2,419 2,426 2,413 2,415 2,413 2,421 8 1,270 6,858
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,189,272 lots, or 36.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,089 3,113 3,083 3,088 3,075 3,095 20 7,396 9,757
May-24 3,032 3,047 3,013 3,020 3,011 3,028 17 924,970 1,675,386
Jul-24 3,045 3,059 3,027 3,034 3,018 3,040 22 23,392 199,777
Aug-24 3,121 3,138 3,108 3,111 3,100 3,121 21 3,497 32,246
Sep-24 3,110 3,131 3,098 3,105 3,092 3,113 21 214,409 826,513
Nov-24 3,119 3,129 3,099 3,104 3,091 3,111 20 4,900 46,454
Dec-24 3,164 3,177 3,150 3,157 3,150 3,161 11 814 11,982
Jan-25 3,156 3,173 3,141 3,148 3,140 3,156 16 9,894 82,786
Palm Oil
Turnover: 480,848 lots, or 35.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,514 7,668 7,446 7,506 7,498 7,540 42 2,517 4,488
Apr-24 7,484 7,572 7,484 7,516 7,484 7,536 52 2,304 3,059
May-24 7,382 7,436 7,364 7,392 7,338 7,398 60 425,773 387,860
Jun-24 7,224 7,276 7,188 7,248 7,188 7,244 56 435 2,021
Jul-24 7,098 7,154 7,054 7,134 7,048 7,112 64 883 3,177
Aug-24 7,006 7,058 6,966 7,034 6,966 7,016 50 225 1,538
Sep-24 6,920 6,976 6,910 6,932 6,868 6,940 72 47,913 129,435
Oct-24 6,880 6,916 6,862 6,882 6,824 6,892 68 81 439
Nov-24 6,858 6,876 6,830 6,838 6,784 6,856 72 73 640
Dec-24 6,824 6,838 6,806 6,806 6,762 6,828 66 97 172
Jan-25 6,776 6,824 6,776 6,800 6,730 6,796 66 524 1,882
Feb-25 6,784 6,814 6,772 6,810 6,734 6,786 52 23 40
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 463,052 lots, or 33.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,410 7,474 7,362 7,402 7,400 7,428 28 1,741 1,188
May-24 7,302 7,344 7,278 7,288 7,252 7,310 58 393,060 577,128
Jul-24 7,230 7,278 7,220 7,236 7,180 7,248 68 2,499 19,900
Aug-24 7,246 7,276 7,222 7,234 7,184 7,246 62 430 7,625
Sep-24 7,210 7,252 7,194 7,204 7,160 7,220 60 63,303 193,122
Nov-24 7,188 7,230 7,178 7,190 7,150 7,206 56 943 7,670
Dec-24 7,268 7,292 7,246 7,250 7,224 7,262 38 81 1,797
Jan-25 7,240 7,266 7,216 7,230 7,192 7,238 46 995 7,923
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322