Grains Report 02/27/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering before the March deliveries get started. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 562, 555, and 550 March, with resistance at 585, 592, and 600 March. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 562, 560, and 554 March, with resistance at 588, 594, and 611 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 628 March. Support is at 636, 630, and 624 March, and resistance is at 657, 667, and 672 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation before First Notice Day. Strong demand for export continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1808, 1792, and 1785 March and resistance is at 1874, 1889, and 1919 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering before First Notice Day. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected but has not come yet. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers and rains expected this week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers but this has not really shown up due to the extremely low prices so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 393, 390, and 387 March, and resistance is at 410, 416, and 421 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 360, 350, and 330 March, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 393 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed higher and the products were lower, with Soybeans feeling some short covering by speculators before the start of deliveries. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production but has been offset by reduced Chinese demand.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought123,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1120, 1108, and 1096 March, and resistance is at 1164, 1180, and 1200 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 312.00 March. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 320.00 March, and resistance is at 339.00, 349.00, and 356.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 4340, 4280, a6nd 4220 March, with resistance at 4460, 4530, and 4680 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on production problems in Southeast Asia but as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was higher with Chicago and as short vering from speculators was noted. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 585.00, 594.00, and 604.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3720, and 3760 May, with resistance at 3920, 3960, and 3990 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 165 Mar
100 Mar
85 Mar

March
62 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 81 Mar

April
54 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 877.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 867.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 837.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 815.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 885.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr 875.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 845.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 885.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 757.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,050.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 264.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7595)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 109,322 lots, or 4.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,625 4,625 4,589 4,611 4,618 4,602 -16 16,949 34,423
May-24 4,547 4,559 4,538 4,556 4,565 4,548 -17 85,614 172,607
Jul-24 4,514 4,515 4,500 4,513 4,525 4,508 -17 3,490 26,019
Sep-24 4,490 4,500 4,483 4,498 4,510 4,492 -18 2,565 16,250
Nov-24 4,467 4,482 4,465 4,482 4,493 4,475 -18 380 3,069
Jan-25 4,466 4,477 4,462 4,477 4,491 4,469 -22 324 3,103
Corn
Turnover: 555,334 lots, or 1.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,395 2,400 2,387 2,393 2,403 2,394 -9 7,593 16,519
May-24 2,455 2,460 2,445 2,453 2,465 2,453 -12 464,933 978,564
Jul-24 2,480 2,481 2,468 2,475 2,485 2,474 -11 43,227 235,310
Sep-24 2,460 2,465 2,451 2,459 2,469 2,457 -12 29,734 146,643
Nov-24 2,421 2,431 2,417 2,430 2,427 2,424 -3 8,685 18,833
Jan-25 2,417 2,418 2,408 2,417 2,420 2,413 -7 1,162 6,751
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,441,848 lots, or 43.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,060 3,087 3,050 3,086 3,076 3,075 -1 11,773 14,382
May-24 2,980 3,032 2,974 3,031 2,987 3,011 24 1,123,454 1,649,488
Jul-24 2,997 3,043 2,989 3,042 2,997 3,018 21 46,964 199,168
Aug-24 3,075 3,120 3,070 3,120 3,077 3,100 23 5,006 32,066
Sep-24 3,071 3,111 3,063 3,110 3,071 3,092 21 234,536 818,311
Nov-24 3,074 3,110 3,064 3,110 3,069 3,091 22 4,288 45,383
Dec-24 3,124 3,160 3,120 3,160 3,122 3,150 28 647 12,251
Jan-25 3,120 3,155 3,112 3,153 3,117 3,140 23 15,180 81,548
Palm Oil
Turnover: 477,621 lots, or 34.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,486 7,530 7,470 7,520 7,486 7,498 12 944 4,977
Apr-24 7,432 7,512 7,432 7,502 7,438 7,484 46 2,198 3,390
May-24 7,284 7,376 7,274 7,360 7,284 7,338 54 428,097 377,206
Jun-24 7,128 7,216 7,128 7,212 7,136 7,188 52 290 2,053
Jul-24 6,998 7,090 6,996 7,086 7,010 7,048 38 708 3,195
Aug-24 6,916 6,994 6,916 6,988 6,918 6,966 48 117 1,576
Sep-24 6,814 6,902 6,812 6,902 6,828 6,868 40 44,488 127,601
Oct-24 6,794 6,852 6,788 6,852 6,778 6,824 46 67 450
Nov-24 6,740 6,814 6,740 6,814 6,736 6,784 48 80 645
Dec-24 6,736 6,780 6,736 6,778 6,716 6,762 46 47 212
Jan-25 6,700 6,768 6,694 6,768 6,700 6,730 30 577 1,877
Feb-25 6,722 6,746 6,722 6,742 6,702 6,734 32 8 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 429,838 lots, or 31.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,360 7,424 7,330 7,412 7,362 7,400 38 768 2,609
May-24 7,182 7,298 7,182 7,294 7,226 7,252 26 359,007 579,958
Jul-24 7,134 7,228 7,134 7,226 7,166 7,180 14 3,401 19,642
Aug-24 7,144 7,228 7,144 7,226 7,164 7,184 20 616 7,636
Sep-24 7,110 7,204 7,106 7,204 7,136 7,160 24 64,242 192,017
Nov-24 7,090 7,184 7,090 7,178 7,118 7,150 32 820 7,821
Dec-24 7,194 7,252 7,194 7,246 7,190 7,224 34 37 1,778
Jan-25 7,174 7,224 7,146 7,216 7,174 7,192 18 947 7,859
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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