Grains Report 02/22/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday on big world supplies and low world prices. Russian export prices were reported at a new low yesterday. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 572, 555, and 544 March, with resistance at 585, 592, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are nixed. Support is at 563, 560, and 554 March, with resistance at 588, 595, and 611 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 650, 642, and 636 March, and resistance is at 671, 680, and 689 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday after trading lower for much of the day. Strong demand for export continues. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily charts. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1801, 1785, and 1774 March and resistance is at 1833, 1850, and 1874 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on big supplies and reports of limited demand. Howwver, basis levels have started to firm in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight fqarmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers.
Overnight News: China bought 126,000 tons of US Sorghum.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 405, and 402 March, and resistance is at 421, 429, and 432 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 368, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 380, 389, and 393 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday and trends remain sideways to down on the daily charts. Basis levels in the country are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1156, 1144, and 1132 March, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1207 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 338.00, 335.00, and 332.00 March, and resistance is at 349.00, 356.00, and 359.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4470, 4400, a6nd 4340 March, with resistance at 4650, 4770, and 4850 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower again today as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 585.00, 594.00, and 604.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3830, 3790, and 3760 May, with resistance at 3880, 3820, and 3980 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 165 Mar
100 Mar
85 Mar

March
62 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 81 Mar

April
54 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 862.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 832.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 802.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 870.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 865.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 745.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 4,000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Mar 263.00 -01.00 Unquoted –
($1=MYR4.774)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,075 lots, or 5.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,712 4,740 4,687 4,694 4,705 4,710 5 63,950 81,198
May-24 4,685 4,695 4,640 4,641 4,677 4,663 -14 51,350 108,823
Jul-24 4,623 4,634 4,596 4,597 4,618 4,610 -8 3,736 21,255
Sep-24 4,595 4,603 4,575 4,580 4,592 4,584 -8 1,615 11,238
Nov-24 4,580 4,580 4,557 4,560 4,575 4,563 -12 217 1,653
Jan-25 4,565 4,567 4,545 4,550 4,562 4,551 -11 207 1,462
Corn
Turnover: 893,206 lots, or 21.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,365 2,399 2,365 2,397 2,362 2,377 15 21,644 41,692
May-24 2,426 2,466 2,421 2,464 2,419 2,441 22 731,608 955,285
Jul-24 2,450 2,486 2,443 2,483 2,441 2,459 18 83,504 231,185
Sep-24 2,442 2,469 2,439 2,468 2,440 2,453 13 49,736 122,159
Nov-24 2,425 2,441 2,420 2,438 2,424 2,429 5 4,101 17,749
Jan-25 2,416 2,435 2,416 2,432 2,423 2,423 0 2,613 5,580
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,183,566 lots, or 35.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,110 3,124 3,088 3,107 3,137 3,108 -29 13,952 32,605
May-24 2,988 2,997 2,968 2,989 3,012 2,983 -29 914,329 1,640,606
Jul-24 2,999 3,004 2,979 3,000 3,015 2,991 -24 42,498 187,397
Aug-24 3,084 3,087 3,066 3,085 3,102 3,079 -23 3,737 33,065
Sep-24 3,078 3,082 3,060 3,081 3,092 3,071 -21 191,043 815,659
Nov-24 3,080 3,083 3,063 3,081 3,094 3,071 -23 4,016 45,876
Dec-24 3,135 3,136 3,120 3,134 3,154 3,128 -26 317 12,188
Jan-25 3,128 3,130 3,110 3,128 3,142 3,119 -23 13,674 76,368
Palm Oil
Turnover: 571,373 lots, or 41.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 – – – 7,258 7,258 7,258 0 0 0
Mar-24 7,560 7,604 7,520 7,546 7,560 7,566 6 1,499 7,887
Apr-24 7,490 7,524 7,456 7,492 7,504 7,484 -20 2,254 2,919
May-24 7,358 7,396 7,312 7,350 7,368 7,358 -10 501,303 383,667
Jun-24 7,206 7,242 7,178 7,214 7,228 7,208 -20 688 2,030
Jul-24 7,072 7,114 7,050 7,090 7,094 7,078 -16 805 2,244
Aug-24 6,964 7,000 6,950 7,000 6,992 6,974 -18 189 1,522
Sep-24 6,860 6,910 6,838 6,904 6,904 6,880 -24 64,111 117,034
Oct-24 6,840 6,856 6,794 6,846 6,842 6,822 -20 77 438
Nov-24 6,808 6,814 6,750 6,814 6,818 6,780 -38 50 586
Dec-24 6,782 6,802 6,742 6,796 6,832 6,772 -60 47 113
Jan-25 6,750 6,772 6,718 6,760 6,788 6,748 -40 350 1,204
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 459,821 lots, or 3.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,368 7,418 7,352 7,404 7,384 7,390 1,221 4,658
May-24 7,250 7,314 7,234 7,304 7,286 7,278 -8 395,239 570,869
Jul-24 7,212 7,250 7,176 7,248 7,228 7,214 -14 2,041 18,137
Aug-24 7,186 7,246 7,174 7,246 7,224 7,208 -16 949 7,612
Sep-24 7,176 7,220 7,140 7,218 7,194 7,178 -16 58,190 166,969
Nov-24 7,160 7,208 7,126 7,200 7,180 7,160 -20 1,177 8,019
Dec-24 7,212 7,276 7,200 7,276 7,252 7,226 -26 140 1,713
Jan-25 7,184 7,250 7,162 7,244 7,222 7,194 -28 864 7,299
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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