Grains Report 02/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week on big world supplies and low world prices. USDA said in its outlook forum that planted area should be about 47 million acres, from 49.6 million this year. Yields were increased, so production was pushed to 1.9 billion bushels and ending stocks were pushed higher to 769 million bushels. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 542 and 522 March. Support is at 556, 550, and 544 March, with resistance at 584, 592, and 607 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 560, 554, and 548 March, with resistance at 595, 611, and 619 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 648, 642, and 636 March, and resistance is at 671, 680, and 689 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 448,418
: Positions :
: 64,480 125,173 126,527 66,976 102,034 157,906 58,380 415,888 412,114: 32,530 36,304
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -20,837) :
: 3,246 -1,084 -12,878 -7,391 3,825 -1,425 -8,339 -18,449 -18,476: -2,389 -2,361
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 27.9 28.2 14.9 22.8 35.2 13.0 92.7 91.9: 7.3 8.1
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 122 134 85 87 46 33 302 298:
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COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 270,086
: Positions :
: 31,177 79,148 65,113 57,584 70,636 94,549 31,520 248,423 246,417: 21,662 23,669
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 3,949) :
: -179 4,723 -7,889 6,380 1,194 4,170 3,461 2,482 1,489: 1,467 2,460
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.5 29.3 24.1 21.3 26.2 35.0 11.7 92.0 91.2: 8.0 8.8
: Total Traders: 221 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 40 60 65 59 62 38 22 177 177:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 75,585 :
: Positions :
: 40,826 16,540 1,997 359 382 6,693 31,525 6,460 1,642 3,348 6,530 :
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 :
: -2,632 -2,718 173 11 -415 1,170 96 502 -194 1,722 -684 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 54.0 21.9 2.6 0.5 0.5 8.9 41.7 8.5 2.2 4.4 8.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 114 :
: 49 39 5 . . 7 29 10 9 11 16 :
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RICE
General Comments Rice closed lower last week despite strong demand for export as USDA showed increased production potential and increased ending stocks ideas in its Outlook Forum. Trends are mixed on the daily charts. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve. .
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1889, 1919, and 1932 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,661 :
: Positions :
: 2,530 9,307 200 0 41 5,049 776 59 1,159 571 722 :
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 :
: -39 17 -51 0 -10 481 -110 2 -132 101 88 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.0 73.5 1.6 0.0 0.3 39.9 6.1 0.5 9.2 4.5 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 15 19 . 0 . 18 . . 12 5 7 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week and Oats were higher. USDA estimated planted area for Corn at 91.0 million acres, from 94.6 million last year. Yields were trendline and high, so production held at 15.040 billion bushels and ending stocks were pushed higher to 2.632 billion bushels. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News: Japan bought 155,0o0-0 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 414 and 410 March. Support is at 414, 411, and 408 March, and resistance is at 429, 437, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 371, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 389, 393, and 402 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,038,849
: Positions :
: 137,064 459,845 660,157 589,295 524,797 452,789 161,443 1,839,306 1,806,241: 199,543 232,607
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 42,854) :
: -797 16,592 33,817 7,261 -9,338 3,255 -2,981 43,537 38,091: -683 4,764
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.7 22.6 32.4 28.9 25.7 22.2 7.9 90.2 88.6: 9.8 11.4
: Total Traders: 774 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 175 202 355 336 50 35 640 639:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower last week and trends started to turn down on the daily charts. USDA showed increased planted area at its Outlook Forum at 87.5 million acres, from 83.6 million last year. Yield estimates were high at 52.0 bushels per acre and production was also high at 4.505 million bushels. Ending stocks were projected at 435 million bushels, from 315 million forecast for this year. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 228,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1136 March. Support is at 1156, 1144, and 1132 March, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1207 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 338.00, 335.00, and 332.00 March, and resistance is at 347.00, 356.00, and 359.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4530, 4490, a6nd 4430 March, with resistance at 4650, 4770, and 4850 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,005,227
: Positions :
: 42,210 204,394 327,660 388,116 333,900 186,593 66,665 944,578 932,619: 60,649 72,608
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 13,790) :
: 3,696 3,305 -1,740 8,669 11,863 3,936 1,311 14,560 14,739: -770 -949
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.2 20.3 32.6 38.6 33.2 18.6 6.6 94.0 92.8: 6.0 7.2
: Total Traders: 554 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 172 176 187 197 51 33 451 466:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 603,973
: Positions :
: 48,730 117,110 166,042 186,040 252,174 173,750 39,149 574,562 574,475: 29,411 29,498
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: -27,224) :
: -643 -6,010 -12,490 -7,083 -5,700 -4,431 -3,321 -24,646 -27,521: -2,577 297
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.1 19.4 27.5 30.8 41.8 28.8 6.5 95.1 95.1: 4.9 4.9
: Total Traders: 330 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 89 101 103 102 44 24 271 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 597,172
: Positions :
: 46,276 105,393 180,873 190,349 244,032 125,879 31,991 543,377 562,289: 53,796 34,883
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 (Change in open interest: 19,073) :
: 2,152 7,761 2,889 14,176 1,602 -714 5,330 18,504 17,582: 569 1,491
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.7 17.6 30.3 31.9 40.9 21.1 5.4 91.0 94.2: 9.0 5.8
: Total Traders: 345 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 81 104 127 111 43 22 293 269:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on price action in Chicago. Futures were lower again today as the export pace is below expectations. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market ove4rall. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 544.00 March, with resistance at 578.00, 589.00, and 592.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3760, and 3700 May, with resistance at 3850, 3880, and 3910 May.

DJ Malaysia Feb. 1-20 Palm-Oil Exports Fell 18.33%, AmSpec Says
By Kimberley Kao
Malaysia’s palm-oil exports during the February 1-20 period are estimated to have fallen 18.33% on month at 676,949 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Feb. 1-20 Jan. 1-20
RBD Palm Olein 186,921 202,620
RBD Palm Oil 75,477 65,450
RBD Palm Stearin 51,535 73,659
Crude Palm Oil 177,465 199,411
Total* 676,949 828,910
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 40,690 :
: Positions :
: 27,280 20,941 1,110 7,788 1,560 0 700 280 2,820 1,861 7,560 :
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 :
: 450 -270 0 500 0 0 440 0 740 520 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 67.0 51.5 2.7 19.1 3.8 0.0 1.7 0.7 6.9 4.6 18.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 28 :
: 9 10 . . . 0 . . 5 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 13, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 315,246 :
: Positions :
: 255,209 106,481 4,028 2,550 4,435 7,023 155,411 24,237 8,284 9,453 10,276 :
: Changes from: February 6, 2024 :
: 6,918 -2,016 267 91 -129 909 9,477 -5,593 103 475 1,899 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.0 33.8 1.3 0.8 1.4 2.2 49.3 7.7 2.6 3.0 3.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 328 :
: 61 60 4 6 7 13 100 20 47 70 47 :
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Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
82 Mar

March
67 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 78 Mar

April
62 May 165 May 100 May 67 May

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