Grains Report 02/14/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mostly a little lower yesterday as new buying entered the pit despite big world supplies and low world prices. The weekly export inspections report released yesterday and showed improved shipments, but export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 587, 580, and 570 March, with resistance at 611, 619, and 626 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 655 March. Support is at 669, 661, and 655 March, and resistance is at 680, 689, and 699 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on follow through selling and trends are trying to turn down on the daily charts. USDA cut ending stocks estimates for Long Grain and All Rice by 1.0 million tons on increased export demand. Ending stocks were lowered by one million tons. No big changes were noted for the world estimates. However, the overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1874, 1919, and 1932 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 14
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 25.37 15.93 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.87 16.60 0.00
Brokens 15.35 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed about unchanged yesterday. Oats were a little higher end remained in a trading range. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 414 and 410 March. Support is at 426, 423, and 420 March, and resistance is at 437, 445, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 372, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher and held support areas on the daily charts. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 341.00, 338.00, and 335.00 March, and resistance is at 359.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4620, 4520, a6nd 4490 March, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4980 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. MPOB said that January stocks were 2.02 million tons, down 11.8% from December. Exports were stronger than expected and production was a little weaker. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was a little higher with Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 585.00, 578.00, and 572.00 March, with resistance at 601.00, 605.00, and 615.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3850, and 3790 April, with resistance at 3950, 3990, and 4050 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 67 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
82 Mar

March
67 Mar 165 Mar 105 Mar 78 Mar

April
62 May 165 May 100 May 67 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 867.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 840.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 815.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 875.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 847.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 867.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 742.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,040 +90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 263.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7834)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322