Softs Report 02/12/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed higher last week and above strong resistance on the weekly charts in response to a reduction in ending stocks estimates from USDA. USDA found increased demand to lower ending stocks to 280 million bales from 290 million bales before. The demand news has been solid in this market for the last several weeks. The charts indicate that trends turned up in the second half of last week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 88.21 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 999 bales, from 999 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9320 March. Support is at 88.60, 87.00, and 86.00 March, with resistance of 92.00, 92.60 and 93.20 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 316,266
: Positions :
: 59,661 20,970 81,858 74,805 182,611 80,764 18,787 297,088 304,226: 19,178 12,040
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,465) :
: 12,378 -1,878 10,520 -315 20,427 122 -4,069 22,705 25,000: 1,760 -535
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.9 6.6 25.9 23.7 57.7 25.5 5.9 93.9 96.2: 6.1 3.8
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 109 59 102 53 65 49 22 255 209:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower last week after making new highs for the move. The daily harts suggest once again that the market is finding a high area. USDA estimated production at 19.8 million boxes for lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year ago. Prices had been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil until a sharp rally came to the market. That is lower Florida, much less than recent estimates but still well above a year and the rally came an end yesterday. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 370.00, 359.00, and 354.00 March, with resistance at 287.00, 397.00, and 405.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,093 :
: Positions :
: 2,509 5,865 852 93 113 2,012 889 170 1,351 472 3,102 :
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 :
: -562 868 -87 -51 19 590 -406 -319 163 81 114 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.7 48.5 7.0 0.8 0.9 16.6 7.3 1.4 11.2 3.9 25.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64 :
: 11 9 4 . . 16 6 4 9 14 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on Friday and for the week on a lack of offer from producers as forecasts for good growing conditions through the month of February continue. The Dollar was a little higher yesterday and remains in an uptrend. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action, and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers as well. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas. Brazil weather is improving for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 0.297 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 181.62 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 190.00, 185.00, and 182.00 March, and resistance is at 197.00, 200.00 and 201.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 3220, 3180, and 3140 March, with resistance at 3380, 3440, and 3500 March.

DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Up 39%, Set Record for January, Cecafe Says
By Kirk Malais
Coffee exports from Brazil were the largest ever seen for the month of January, CeCafe said in its latest sales report, despite shipping disruptions abroad.
Brazil exported 3.96 million 60-kilogram bags, which is a 39% increase from this time last year, the agency reported Friday. Conilon and robusta varieties saw a 503% increase in shipments, constituting 457,787 bags. Arabica shipments were 3.21 million bags.
Brazilian coffee exports have been able to avoid the repercussions of the disruption of freight through the Red Sea, said CeCafe President Márcio Ferreira, who added that such a disruption may strike coffee shipments in future months.
“We are aware that, if the attacks on the link between North Africa and the Middle East continue, as well as the lack of rain in Central America, there will certainly be an increase in freight costs or the shortage of vessels could further complicate the scenario in Brazil,” he said.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 280,746
: Positions :
: 56,425 21,485 89,859 59,718 149,424 64,907 11,320 270,909 272,089: 9,838 8,658
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 7,437) :
: 636 -194 3,002 3,475 2,459 565 1,859 7,677 7,126: -240 310
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.1 7.7 32.0 21.3 53.2 23.1 4.0 96.5 96.9: 3.5 3.1
: Total Traders: 382 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 122 73 116 99 112 50 22 328 277:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week and the trends remain sideways on the daily charts but are trying to turn up. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2290 and 2390 May. Support is at 2260, 2230, and 2210 May and resistance is at 2340, 2410, and 2370 May. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 679.00 and 704.00 May. Support is at 649.00, 639.00, and 633.00 May, with resistance at 664.00, 670.00, and 695.00 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,158,219
: Positions :
: 84,030 76,874 314,441 454,146 618,209 224,701 88,169 1,077,319 1,097,693: 80,900 60,526
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,134) :
: 5,123 -1,132 10,452 9,146 14,788 -890 -2,350 23,832 21,758: 1,302 3,376
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.3 6.6 27.1 39.2 53.4 19.4 7.6 93.0 94.8: 7.0 5.2
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 51 78 73 73 36 20 202 187:
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COCOA
General Comments: Both markets were sharply higher and entered the stratosphere last week. New York gained almost $1,000/ton last week and London was up over #700/ton. Price trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. Futures have rallied sharply for the past month but exploded higher last week. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that is threatening West Africa crops with hot and dry weather. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.126 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with no objectives. Support is at 5450, 5330, and 5230 March, with resistance at 6030, 6090, and 6150 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4350, 4300, and 4200 March, with resistance at 4840, 5000, and 5060 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 455,688
: Positions :
: 84,799 42,746 195,521 115,151 187,194 41,626 16,443 437,097 441,904: 18,591 13,784
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: -38,515) :
: -5,346 -1,373 -21,430 -8,253 -13,700 -4,135 -1,754 -39,163 -38,257: 648 -258
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 9.4 42.9 25.3 41.1 9.1 3.6 95.9 97.0: 4.1 3.0
: Total Traders: 257 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 95 70 98 39 44 33 17 216 187:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322