Grains Report 02/12/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower last week on big world supplies and low world prices. HRW futures was the weakest market. The weekly export sales report released last week was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 584, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 597, 587, and 580 March, with resistance at 634, 641, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 679, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 706, 713, and 720 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
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WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 469,256
: Positions :
: 61,234 126,257 139,405 74,366 98,209 159,331 66,719 434,337 430,590: 34,919 38,665
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,075) :
: 2,018 3,543 3,425 -441 2,211 3,523 2,009 8,526 11,189: 1,549 -1,114
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 26.9 29.7 15.8 20.9 34.0 14.2 92.6 91.8: 7.4 8.2
: Total Traders: 370 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 87 116 138 87 87 44 31 303 305:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 266,137
: Positions :
: 31,356 74,425 73,002 51,204 69,441 90,379 28,059 245,941 244,928: 20,196 21,209
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 13,927) :
: 825 5,078 3,725 7,401 4,776 2,059 1,253 14,011 14,832: -84 -905
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 28.0 27.4 19.2 26.1 34.0 10.5 92.4 92.0: 7.6 8.0
: Total Traders: 215 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 45 55 63 53 61 39 21 171 171:
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 76,394 :
: Positions :
: 43,458 19,258 1,824 348 797 5,523 31,429 5,958 1,836 1,626 7,214 :
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 :
: -429 1,953 37 -1 220 1,028 -147 603 687 684 1,261 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 56.9 25.2 2.4 0.5 1.0 7.2 41.1 7.8 2.4 2.1 9.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 121 :
: 55 45 6 . 4 7 26 12 14 6 17 :
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week and trends remain up on the daily and weekly charts. USDA cut ending stocks estimates for Long Grain and All Rice by 1.0 million tons on increased export demand. No big changes were noted for the world estimates. However, the overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting prices here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas and soil moisture conditions for the next crop should improve.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1879, 1913, and 2007 March. Support is at 1856, 1845, and 1829 March and resistance is at 1900, 1912, and 1924 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,339 :
: Positions :
: 2,570 9,290 251 0 51 4,568 886 57 1,291 470 634 :
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 :
: -443 80 48 0 -6 358 51 7 122 28 12 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.8 75.3 2.0 0.0 0.4 37.0 7.2 0.5 10.5 3.8 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 72 :
: 14 21 . 0 . 17 4 . 14 5 7 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower last week and made new lows for the move in response to the WASDE reports with an increase of 10 million bushels in the ending stocks estimates. Oats were a little higher end remained in a trading range. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 414 and 410 March. Support is at 426, 423, and 420 March, and resistance is at 437, 445, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 372, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,995,994
: Positions :
: 137,861 443,253 626,339 582,035 534,134 449,534 164,424 1,795,769 1,768,151: 200,226 227,844
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 32,163) :
: 4,535 17,723 4,614 1,586 735 16,720 3,192 27,454 26,264: 4,709 5,899
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.9 22.2 31.4 29.2 26.8 22.5 8.2 90.0 88.6: 10.0 11.4
: Total Traders: 775 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 162 197 357 342 53 35 643 640:
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SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans was a little lower and Soybean Meal was lower in response to the USDA estimates, but Soybean Oil was higher on strong demand from the bio fuels sector. USDA left Brazil production estimates very high at 156 million tons and cut US export demand to push US ending stocks above 300 million bushels. The trade reacted and followed through on Friday. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 335.00 and 312.00 March. Support is at 341.00, 338.00, and 335.00 March, and resistance is at 359.00, 366.00, and 370.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 4620, 4520, a6nd 4490 March, with resistance at 4860, 4920, and 4980 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 991,437
: Positions :
: 38,513 201,089 329,400 379,448 322,037 182,657 65,354 930,018 917,880: 61,419 73,556
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 35,213) :
: 2,509 18,462 22,532 1,606 -13,072 4,034 6,728 30,681 34,649: 4,532 563
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 3.9 20.3 33.2 38.3 32.5 18.4 6.6 93.8 92.6: 6.2 7.4
: Total Traders: 559 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 85 176 177 187 205 53 31 450 474:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 631,196
: Positions :
: 49,373 123,119 178,531 193,123 257,874 178,181 42,471 599,208 601,995: 31,988 29,201
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,258) :
: -1,443 -1,556 6,715 731 8,858 14,514 4,848 20,517 18,864: -2,259 -607
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.8 19.5 28.3 30.6 40.9 28.2 6.7 94.9 95.4: 5.1 4.6
: Total Traders: 340 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 87 102 98 96 47 25 275 263:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of February 06, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 578,099
: Positions :
: 44,124 97,632 177,984 176,173 242,430 126,592 26,661 524,873 544,707: 53,226 33,392
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,116) :
: 4,921 2,358 19,242 -10,141 -5,052 719 -156 14,741 16,392: -625 -2,276
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.6 16.9 30.8 30.5 41.9 21.9 4.6 90.8 94.2: 9.2 5.8
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 76 103 128 113 43 21 293 267:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. It was closed today for a holiday. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was ha little lower. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 578.00, 572.00, and 566.00 March, with resistance at 604.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3870, 3850, and 3790 April, with resistance at 3950, 3990, and 4050 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 39,500 :
: Positions :
: 26,830 21,211 1,110 7,288 1,560 0 260 280 2,080 1,341 7,560 :
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 :
: -3,800 -1,909 240 -1,860 -230 -80 -340 80 -400 69 140 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 67.9 53.7 2.8 18.5 3.9 0.0 0.7 0.7 5.3 3.4 19.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 9 10 . . . 0 . . 4 4 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of February 6, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 310,857 :
: Positions :
: 248,291 108,497 3,760 2,460 4,563 6,114 145,934 29,830 8,180 8,978 8,376 :
: Changes from: January 30, 2024 :
: 5,697 0 1,162 -27 -128 1,646 9,014 3,325 831 443 -115 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 79.9 34.9 1.2 0.8 1.5 2.0 46.9 9.6 2.6 2.9 2.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 325 :
: 63 61 5 5 7 15 99 21 46 63 46 :
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Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 69 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 110 Mar 75 Mar

April
57 May 170 May 102 May 68 May

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322