Grains Report 02/07/2024

DJ February Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2022-23
Corn 124.3 121.0-127.0 127.0 137.0
Soybeans 153.0 148.0-157.5 157.0 160.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 126.5 153.5
Allendale 125.0 153.0
Doane 122.0 154.0
Linn Group 121.0 148.0
Marex 123.0 157.0
Midland Research 122.0 152.0
Midwest Market Solutions 127.0 157.5
Ocean State Research 127.0 155.0
Prime Ag 126.0 153.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 125.0 151.5
StoneX 124.5 150.4
US Commodities 122.0 152.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 124.4 152.0
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA January USDA 2022-23
Corn 55.7 55.0-57.0 55.0 34.0
Soybeans 50.8 50.0-52.0 50.0 25.0
Corn Soybeans
AgriSompo North America 55.0 50.0
Allendale 57.0 50.0
Doane 56.0 51.0
Linn Group 55.0 52.0
Marex 57.0 52.0
Midland Research 55.0 50.0
Midwest Market Solutions 56.0 50.0
Ocean State Research 57.0 52.0
Prime Ag 55.0 50.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 55.0 50.0
StoneX 55.0 51.5
US Commodities 55.5 50.5
Zaner Ag Hedge 56.0 51.0

DJ February World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World 2023-24 Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24 USDA USDA
Average Range January 2022-23
Corn 324.0 317.0-327.1 325.2 300.6
Soybeans 112.9 109.0-115.0 114.6 101.9
Wheat 260.1 257.0-262.0 260.0 271.6
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 324.8 114.3 260.1
Allendale 325.2 112.4 260.2
Linn Group 317.0 109.0 261.5
Marex 327.0 115.0 260.0
Midwest Market Solutions 325.5 114.5 259.5
Ocean State Research 326.0 115.0 261.0
Prime Ag 325.0 112.0 260.0
Risk Mgmt Commodities 320.0 111.0 262.0
StoneX 327.1 114.7 260.9
US Commodities 322.0 111.6 257.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 324.4 112.9 258.9

DJ U.S. February Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2023-24, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. 2023-24 Stockpiles (millions)
USDA USDA
Average Range January 2022-23
Corn 2,134 2,065-2,212 2,162 1,360
Soybeans 282 245-312 280 264
Wheat 649 623-673 648 570
2023-24
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 2,137 270 623
Allendale 2,162 290 658
Doane 2,065 245 645
Linn Group 2,172 279 661
Marex 2,212 300 648
Midland Research 2,087 250 648
Midwest Market Solutions 2,152 280 645
Ocean State Research 2,164 293 673
Prime Ag 2,162 280 648
Risk Mgmt Commodities 2,100 285 645
RJ O’Brien 2,067 312 653
StoneX 2,092 295 662
US Commodities 2,137 275 640
VantageRM 2,162 290 648
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,137 285 638

DJ U.S. Dec Grain Exports-Feb 7

In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Dec 23 Nov 23 Oct 23 Dec 22
Barley 1,961,000 1,137,000 1,101,804 1,843,855
Corn /1 4,806,613,000 3,573,054,000 2,811,143,000 3,692,464,000
Sorghum 1,007,509,000 583,105,000 214,032,000 102,477,000
Oats 907,504 2,829,591 1,644,898 632,986
Rye 586,525 133,050 20,000 70,000
Wheat /1 1,515,780,182 1,149,610,463 1,085,886,579 1,078,808,764
wheat flour /1 18,602,771 19,855,086 25,229,331 13,354,483
Malt 19,235,699 25,097,071 23,073,716 21,320,098
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Dec 23 Nov 23 Oct 23 Dec 22
Barley 90,067 52,221 50,605 84,687
Corn /1 189,226,053 140,663,479 110,668,676 145,364,395
Sorghum 39,663,470 22,955,594 8,425,981 4,034,300
Oats 62,521 194,941 113,323 43,609
Rye 23,090 5,238 787 2,756
Wheat /1 55,694,816 42,240,520 39,899,092 39,639,030
wheat flour /1 410,121 437,730 556,212 294,416
Malt 42,407,464 55,329,580 50,868,845 47,002,778
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. December Grain Imports-February 7
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Dec 2023—- —-Nov 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 1,426,638 3,145,737 3,107,471 6,851,974
spring wheat 1,148,612 2,532,689 1,813,542 3,998,860
winter wheat 0 0 0 0
wheat/meslin 0 0 0 0
TOTAL WHEAT 2,575,250 5,678,426 4,921,013 10,850,834
barley 23,373,741 51,539,099 10,483,841 23,116,869
oats 173,578 382,739 47,186 104,045
corn 31,617,433 69,716,440 53,628,151 118,250,073
other corn 7,984,011 17,604,744 8,878,860 19,577,886
TOTAL CORN 39,601,444 87,321,184 62,507,011 137,827,959

DJ U.S. Dec Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Feb 7
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Dec 23 Nov 23 Oct 23 Dec 22
soybeans 4,824,538,639 7,463,380,723 9,477,743,164 8,294,774,812
soyoil 5,853,461 6,289,691 5,950,515 15,852,182
crude 171,942 355,200 277,295 10,366,414
refined 72,423 244,137 131,409 210,194
other/1 5,406,487 5,462,040 5,367,429 5,070,595
hydrogenated 202,609 228,314 174,382 204,979
cottonseed oil 544,882 468,052 1,391,137 2,109,015
crude 0 0 281,549 79,998
refined 0 0 520,325 758,985
other/1 44,056 145,266 59,821 406,170
hydrogenated 500,826 322,786 529,442 863,862
sunseeds 499,837 742,027 42,018 298,748
sunseed oil 3,484,936 3,396,621 3,585,775 2,430,105
rapeseed 14,098,837 21,662,225 28,451,707 16,143,519
rapeseed oil 7,484,510 9,731,034 7,949,915 5,736,156
crude 1,338,163 5,263,699 3,815,951 2,223,516
refined 6,146,347 4,467,335 4,133,964 3,512,640
linseed meal 204,391 176,000 129,000 188,887
cottonseed meal 3,051,903 5,412,524 1,922,621 3,169,735
soymeal 1,086,010,648 1,071,377,644 864,470,439 950,162,965
soymeal/flour 338,003,190 250,184,568 320,483,355 243,834,145
soymeal hulls 24,529,000 9,158,000 7,450,000 1,905,000
lard 2,418,338 2,262,807 1,441,189 1,640,158
edible tallow 1,933,193 4,696,940 4,567,071 4,012,023
inedible tallow 9,882,684 8,590,013 9,921,175 20,244,215
ch white grease 0 0 0 97,155
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Dec 23 Nov 23 Oct 23 Dec 22
soybeans 177,269,630 274,229,483 348,243,873 304,777,673
soyoil 12,904,675 13,866,397 13,118,642 34,948,085
crude 379,067 783,082 611,331 22,854,035
refined 159,665 538,230 289,707 463,399
other/1 11,919,266 12,041,739 11,833,157 11,178,750
hydrogenated 446,676 503,346 384,447 451,901
cottonseed oil 1,201,259 1,031,878 3,066,933 4,649,583
crude 0 0 620,709 176,365
refined 0 0 1,147,120 1,673,276
other/1 97,127 320,257 131,883 895,452
hydrogenated 1,104,133 711,621 1,167,220 1,904,490
sunseeds 1,101,952 1,635,890 92,634 658,627
sunseed oil 7,682,970 7,488,269 7,905,282 5,357,465
rapeseed 31,082,620 47,757,039 62,725,288 35,590,373
rapeseed oil 16,500,523 21,453,261 17,526,565 12,646,061
crude 2,950,145 11,604,472 8,412,733 4,902,015
refined 13,550,378 9,848,789 9,113,832 7,744,047
linseed meal 225 194 142 208
cottonseed meal 3,364 5,966 2,119 3,494
soymeal 1,197,110 1,180,980 952,906 1,047,365
soymeal flour/me 372,581 275,778 353,269 268,778
soymeal hulls 27,038 10,095 8,212 2,100
lard 5,331,524 4,988,636 3,177,278 3,615,930
edible tallow 4,261,962 10,354,982 10,068,670 8,844,998
inedible tallow 21,787,592 18,937,740 21,872,451 44,630,862
ch white grease 0 0 0 214,190

DJ U.S. Dec Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-February 7
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Dec 2023—- —-Nov 2023—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 26,253,319 57,888,568 38,552,695 85,008,692
palm kernel oil 31,505,480 69,469,583 38,418,237 84,712,213
palm oil 226,680,359 499,830,192 146,625,122 323,308,394
soybean 11,741,413 25,889,816 36,225,868 79,878,039
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 21,983,601 48,473,840 16,729,264 36,888,027
rapeseed oil
edible 278,805,753 614,766,685 245,472,986 541,267,934
rapeseed oil,
inedible 122,771 270,710 215,367 474,884

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday in consolidation trading seen before the release of the WASDE report on Thursday. The reports should show increased ending stocks. The weekly export sales report released last week was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada this week. Cooler temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 607, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 607, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 634, 641, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 689, 679, and 674 March, and resistance is at 706, 713, and 720 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends remain up again on the daily charts. Speculative and producer selling was found above 1800 March last week, but the buy side took advantage of the sharp move lower to get some pricing done and now futures are testing contract highs. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets here in the US. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1879, 1913, and 2007 March. Support is at 1829, 1819, and 1801 March and resistance is at 1864, 1876, and 1888 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Feb 7
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 25.59 16.07 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 25.09 16.75 0.00
Brokens 15.48 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed in consolidation trading before the WASDE reports that will be released on Thursday. Trends remain mixed. WASDE reports will be released this week with no changes expected. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected this weeke3nd but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress so this concern is lessening. Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 435, 433, and 432 March, and resistance is at 445, 448, and 452 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 374, 365, and 361 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher on warm and dry forecasts for this week in Argentina. It should rain after that. USDA will issue its next WASDE reports on Thursday with no big changes expected although Brazil production estimates should be less. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 344.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4520, 4490, a6nd 4450 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4860 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are mixed on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was a little lower in consolidation trading before the release of the USDA report on Thursday. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are trying to turn down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 589.00, 586.00, and 580.00 March, with resistance at 615.00, 625.00, and 635.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3790, 3750, and 3720 April, with resistance at 3900, 3950, and 3990 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 69 Mar 160 Mar
100 Mar
80 Mar

March
64 Mar 170 Mar 110 Mar 75 Mar

April
57 May 170 May 102 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 852.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 852.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 827.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 860.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 855.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 730.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,950 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 257.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7585)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 106,580 lots, or 5.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,763 4,790 4,751 4,768 4,757 4,775 18 76,647 111,559
May-24 4,778 4,782 4,756 4,758 4,753 4,769 16 26,730 68,915
Jul-24 4,691 4,695 4,662 4,662 4,676 4,682 6 1,975 18,765
Sep-24 4,646 4,665 4,633 4,633 4,655 4,649 -6 1,138 9,649
Nov-24 4,639 4,640 4,610 4,612 4,632 4,626 -6 46 957
Jan-25 4,618 4,623 4,595 4,595 4,619 4,612 -7 44 836
Corn
Turnover: 385,197 lots, or 9.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,365 2,365 2,354 2,356 2,357 2,358 1 44,028 104,410
May-24 2,414 2,415 2,403 2,407 2,404 2,408 4 296,730 871,573
Jul-24 2,436 2,436 2,425 2,430 2,425 2,430 5 30,301 228,653
Sep-24 2,433 2,433 2,424 2,429 2,427 2,428 1 11,952 102,199
Nov-24 2,402 2,403 2,396 2,401 2,397 2,399 2 1,650 18,624
Jan-25 2,402 2,403 2,397 2,402 2,398 2,400 2 536 3,108
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,072,078 lots, or 3.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,160 3,171 3,111 3,121 3,136 3,143 7 52,675 54,137
May-24 3,006 3,021 2,974 2,982 2,993 2,999 6 787,206 1,496,097
Jul-24 3,006 3,025 2,980 2,988 2,997 3,001 4 36,350 170,458
Aug-24 3,094 3,108 3,069 3,077 3,079 3,090 11 2,972 35,258
Sep-24 3,082 3,099 3,060 3,069 3,070 3,079 9 156,423 691,741
Nov-24 3,078 3,100 3,061 3,075 3,071 3,081 10 6,799 47,683
Dec-24 3,126 3,150 3,120 3,141 3,115 3,136 21 1,660 12,607
Jan-25 3,112 3,146 3,112 3,134 3,111 3,130 19 27,993 52,252
Palm Oil
Turnover: 421,792 lots, or 2.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 – – – 7,258 7,258 7,258 0 0 1,644
Mar-24 7,260 7,304 7,214 7,282 7,254 7,262 8 9,195 11,975
Apr-24 7,228 7,274 7,178 7,242 7,212 7,230 18 458 2,217
May-24 7,136 7,156 7,044 7,110 7,100 7,108 8 383,006 365,477
Jun-24 7,014 7,032 6,942 7,002 6,996 6,988 -8 469 1,944
Jul-24 6,932 6,934 6,868 6,934 6,904 6,902 -2 437 1,796
Aug-24 6,838 6,844 6,766 6,830 6,812 6,806 -6 132 1,549
Sep-24 6,746 6,768 6,672 6,724 6,726 6,724 -2 27,495 101,777
Oct-24 6,724 6,738 6,652 6,696 6,698 6,690 -8 121 442
Nov-24 6,716 6,720 6,626 6,674 6,686 6,668 -18 85 599
Dec-24 6,722 6,724 6,640 6,640 6,690 6,688 -2 26 127
Jan-25 6,718 6,750 6,652 6,692 6,710 6,696 -14 368 758
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 487,435 lots, or 34.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,270 7,314 7,184 7,252 7,256 7,264 8 9,799 8,981
May-24 7,150 7,172 7,044 7,112 7,128 7,114 -14 431,342 608,648
Jul-24 7,098 7,128 7,010 7,084 7,102 7,086 -16 4,057 18,070
Aug-24 7,102 7,130 7,022 7,094 7,102 7,092 -10 1,712 7,618
Sep-24 7,082 7,102 6,996 7,064 7,064 7,052 -12 36,011 144,115
Nov-24 7,072 7,088 6,998 7,062 7,052 7,044 -8 1,341 8,168
Dec-24 7,130 7,152 7,078 7,138 7,114 7,132 18 124 1,654
Jan-25 7,110 7,140 7,066 7,140 7,104 7,104 0 3,049 4,460
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322