Grains Report 02/05/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was about unchanged for Winter Wheat and a little lower for Spring Wheat last week. The weekly export sales report was not strong and the weaker sales are due to strong competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. EU offers were unchanged to help keep US offers from falling. Russian and Ukraine offers are weaker. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. It is warm in the US and Canada week this week. Warm temperatures are also forecast for next week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be weakening.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 585, 576, and 568 March, with resistance at 613, 622, and 630 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 607, 601, and 587 March, with resistance at 641, 647, and 655 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 690, 679, and 674 March, and resistance is at 713, 720, and 729 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 459,180
: Positions :
: 59,216 122,714 135,980 74,807 95,998 155,808 64,710 425,811 419,401: 33,369 39,779
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -8,390) :
: 4,939 1,272 -14,397 -10,059 1,749 11,243 2,088 -8,274 -9,288: -115 898
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 26.7 29.6 16.3 20.9 33.9 14.1 92.7 91.3: 7.3 8.7
: Total Traders: 361 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 82 113 130 87 85 45 30 298 289:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 252,209
: Positions :
: 30,530 69,347 69,277 43,803 64,665 88,320 26,807 231,930 230,095: 20,279 22,114
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,530) :
: 1,793 -2,057 4,914 -174 6,562 3,151 273 9,684 9,692: 845 838
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.1 27.5 27.5 17.4 25.6 35.0 10.6 92.0 91.2: 8.0 8.8
: Total Traders: 208 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 46 51 62 52 59 37 20 168 165:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,081 :
: Positions :
: 43,887 17,305 1,787 349 577 4,495 31,575 5,356 1,149 942 5,954 :
: :
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 60.1 23.7 2.4 0.5 0.8 6.2 43.2 7.3 1.6 1.3 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 116 :
: 56 42 6 . . 6 25 10 6 8 14 :
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RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week and trends turned up again on the daily and weekly charts. Speculative and producer selling was found above 1800 March last week, but the buy side took advantage of the sharp move lower to get some pricing done. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets here in the US . Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week and next on the Delta and Texas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to u[p with objectives of 1913 and 2007 March. Support is at 1819, 1801, and 1785 March and resistance is at 1864, 1876, and 1888 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 12,081 :
: Positions :
: 3,012 9,210 203 0 57 4,210 835 50 1,169 442 621 :
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 :
: 223 567 23 0 -4 433 77 50 -164 -9 258 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.9 76.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 34.8 6.9 0.4 9.7 3.7 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 67 :
: 15 19 . 0 . 14 . . 13 5 7 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower last week despite another week of good export sales. Trends remain mixed with the price action of the week. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with more showers expected next week but coming after a hot and dry period first. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were higher in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 155,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 440, 437, and 435 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 456 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 368, 361, and 350 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,963,831
: Positions :
: 133,326 425,530 621,726 580,449 533,399 432,814 161,232 1,768,314 1,741,887: 195,517 221,944
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,601) :
: -1,274 19,849 -62 -15,711 -10,863 20,040 -1,166 2,993 7,758: 2,608 -2,157
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 6.8 21.7 31.7 29.6 27.2 22.0 8.2 90.0 88.7: 10.0 11.3
: Total Traders: 774 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 104 177 196 348 333 54 36 636 635:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower despite warm and dry forecasts for the next week in Argentina. Thee export sales report showed bad net Soybeans sales due in part to some cancellations and as Brazil Soybeans are far cheaper than those from the US. In fact, about three shipments of Soybean from Brazil were purchased by American interests in the Southeast. Rains are in the forecast after the extreme weather seen over the next week in Argentina. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1162 and 1136 March. Support is at 1180, 1168, and 1152 March, and resistance is at 1207, 1223, and 1228 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 352.00, 346.00, and 344.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 373.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 4460, 4400, a6nd 4340 March, with resistance at 4710, 4790, and 4860 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 956,224
: Positions :
: 36,005 182,628 306,868 377,841 335,109 178,623 58,627 899,337 883,231: 56,887 72,993
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,833) :
: -5,046 25,440 3,284 21,883 -2,809 4,364 -25 24,485 25,890: 348 -1,057
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 3.8 19.1 32.1 39.5 35.0 18.7 6.1 94.1 92.4: 5.9 7.6
: Total Traders: 559 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 185 181 188 198 52 32 452 474:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 612,939
: Positions :
: 50,816 124,676 171,817 192,392 249,016 163,667 37,623 578,692 583,131: 34,247 29,808
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: 19,298) :
: 2,960 10,179 6,451 9,182 -1,660 -140 3,423 18,453 18,393: 845 904
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3 20.3 28.0 31.4 40.6 26.7 6.1 94.4 95.1: 5.6 4.9
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 89 104 92 89 47 23 267 255:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 563,983
: Positions :
: 39,203 95,274 158,742 186,314 247,482 125,873 26,817 510,131 528,315: 53,852 35,668
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 (Change in open interest: -2,144) :
: -1,993 1,649 1,258 2,692 -6,185 -5,515 1,959 -3,558 -1,318: 1,414 -825
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.0 16.9 28.1 33.0 43.9 22.3 4.8 90.5 93.7: 9.5 6.3
: Total Traders: 334 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 52 78 96 125 108 43 21 285 255:
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on weak export data from the private sources and on weaker prices in competing oils markets. It was higher today. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Canola was lower on price action in Chicago. There are still forecasts for better rains in Argentina after a dry spell ends in a week or so and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are turning down on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 586.00, 580.00, and 573.00 March, with resistance at 601.00, 615.00, and 625.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3720, 3680, and 3620 April, with resistance at 3800, 3860, and 3900 April.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 43,570 :
: Positions :
: 30,630 23,120 870 9,148 1,790 80 600 200 2,480 1,272 7,420 :
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 :
: 1,680 970 0 480 -80 80 -80 0 10 480 -600 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 70.3 53.1 2.0 21.0 4.1 0.2 1.4 0.5 5.7 2.9 17.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 10 10 . . . . . . 4 5 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 30, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 298,323 :
: Positions :
: 242,595 108,497 2,598 2,486 4,691 4,469 136,919 26,505 7,350 8,535 8,491 :
: Changes from: January 23, 2024 :
: 8,897 8,704 36 -44 -83 821 1,076 2,625 1,590 1,477 3,434 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 81.3 36.4 0.9 0.8 1.6 1.5 45.9 8.9 2.5 2.9 2.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 317 :
: 60 54 4 6 7 11 100 19 48 63 40 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

February 74 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
83 Mar

March
70 Mar 170 Mar 100 Mar 82 Mar

April
62 May 170 May 100 May 72 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 842.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 842.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 817.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 792.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 800.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 850.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 715.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,850 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 249.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.748)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322