Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM & YoY, Participation Rate, Average Weekly Hours, Government Payrolls, Manufacturing Payrolls, Nonfarm Payrolls, and U-6 Employment Rate at 7:30 A.M., Factory Orders MoM, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, Factory Orders ex Transportation, Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Consumer Expectations Final, Michigan Current Conditions Final, and Michigan Inflation Expectations Final at 9:00 A.M., Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig count and Total Vehicle Sales at 12:00 P.M.
Current world corn futures price relationship are in a unique spot and sits below spot and forward corn in Brazil for the first time since February 2022. Spot corn in Europe’s premium to Chicago is $.53/Bu vs, $.70 last week and vs. $1.05 in late November. The European market is being forced to contend with oversupply following 2023’s rebound in production and extreme competition from Ukraine into neighboring countries. The European market is working slow current/future imports via deflated price premiums. Meanwhile, the Brazilian market is unwilling to drop below $5.60 until March-April weather in Maro Grosso can be better understood. Ag Resources (ARC) notes that a Brazilian corn crop of 115-117 MMT’s (where agronomist estimates exist currently) completely offsets waning European import demand. A sun-115 MMT Brazilian corn crop mandates the addition of premium worldwide. Global feed price discovery hinges mightily on March-April rainfall across Northern Brazil.
Have A Great Trading Day!