Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Wheat: Wheat markets were higher last week in all three markets on the potential for damage from the cold weather seen a week ago and as world prices remain stable. Some support came from the bombings in the Red Sea that has interrupted commerce. The advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill for Winter Wheat markets and very dry conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies until now are keeping production ideas for next year in check. It is warmer in these regions now. There was snow cover to protect many of the crops so little if any damage is expected. It has is turning warmer week this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be fading. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn closed a little higher last week in choppy trading. USDA reported weaker export sales again and weather forecasts for Argentina are improving. On the other hand, more rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil and the Soybeans harvest could be delayed and that could mean less Corn planted area Soybean quality could be reduced as well. Oats were lower in range trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were mixed last week, with Soybeans and Soybean Meal lower and Soybean Oil little changed. Prices were mostly lower on Friday on improved Argentine weather forecasts. Rains are now in the forecast instead of hot and dry weather developing for a longer term stay. Such rains would be beneficial for reproducing Corn and Soybeans. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. The rains could be detrimental to the quality of Soybeans and the planting dates for Winter Corn. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed higher last week and closed on a strong note. Futures made it above 1800 March for part of the day before falling back to close a little below that level. The charts show that futures have broken out of the trading range. The weekly export sales report showed poor demand in response to the rally. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week on the Delta and Texas.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was higher last week ideas of better demand and on ideas of smaller production in Malaysia. China has been a noted buyer recently. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was lower on forecasts for better rains in Argentina and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton closed slightly higher last week on hopes for strong demand news. However, the weekly export sales report xhowed reduced demand this week after big sales the previous week. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market but recent demand from China is starting to put those concerns on the back burner.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed sharply higher to limit up on Friday and near the highs of the week. The price action of Friday implies that higher process can be seen again this week. The daily charts suggest that the market is trying to find a low at this time. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the US and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: Both markets closed higher again last week, with London once again leading the charge. The daily charts show that a further correction is possible in the coming days. Robusta offers remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta remains the main bullish force behind the market action. Brazil weather continues to improve for Coffee production but is still not perfect. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems at ports remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York and London closed moderately higher last week but well off the highs of the week. Trends remain up on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested with shipments of Corn and Soybeans, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York was higher and London was lower again last week. Both markets have been very strong until the recent turn in London to a more sideways trade. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa FuturesQuestions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322