Grains Report 01/24/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday in Chicago, much higher on Kansas City, and mixed in Minneapolis. The advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill for Winter Wheat markets and very dry conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies until now are keeping production ideas for next year in check. It is warmer in these regions now. There was snow cover to protect many of the crops so little if any damage is expected. It has is turning warmer week this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be fading. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 591, 585, and 577 March, with resistance at 608, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 587, 584, and 570 March, with resistance at 625, 637, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 692, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 713, 730, and 729 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday as prices retreated from recent highs. The charts show that futures remain in a trading range, but are trying to break out of that range. The weekly export sales report showed improved demand from Latin America and Japan. It was cold in the southern US last week and cash movement has been at a minimum. Warmer and wetter weather is being seen this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1774, 1785, and 1814 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 24
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 25.17 15.81 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.69 16.48 0.00
Brokens 15.22 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading as ideas of too much production for the demand in the US continue. Oats were lower. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts in this market. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 437, 435, and 432 March, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 462 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 385, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday and were led higher by nearby Soybeans. The spread action implies that new demand for US Soybeans was found. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil and is expected to continue through this week. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. However, there are more estimates that production is below 150 million tons and in some cases much below that level as yield reports from Mato Grosso have been poor and less than expected by analysts. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result. China continues to source more Soybeans from Brazil than the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1201, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1251, 1260, and 1281 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 376.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4690, 4630, a6nd 4570 March, with resistance at 4900, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today ideas of better demand and on ideas of smaller production in Malaysia. China has been a noted buyer recently. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was higher in consolidation trading and in sympathy with the rallies in Chicago. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 623.00, and 615.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3880, 3830, and 3790 April, with resistance at 4050, 4070, and 4130 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 24
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 880.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 880.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 865.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 837.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 887.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 887.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 872.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 845.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 875.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 735.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 4,030 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 253.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7295)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 24
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 95,319 lots, or 4.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,800 4,827 4,783 4,813 4,776 4,806 30 76,162 166,771
May-24 4,753 4,789 4,753 4,776 4,745 4,772 27 17,145 49,111
Jul-24 4,685 4,711 4,675 4,700 4,664 4,696 32 1,180 17,596
Sep-24 4,665 4,690 4,656 4,684 4,645 4,677 32 756 9,427
Nov-24 4,654 4,671 4,639 4,665 4,627 4,659 32 46 464
Jan-25 4,638 4,660 4,638 4,655 4,617 4,650 33 30 378
Corn
Turnover: 530,887 lots, or 12.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,305 2,317 2,298 2,314 2,293 2,309 16 44,500 174,909
May-24 2,345 2,353 2,334 2,345 2,329 2,344 15 434,885 931,685
Jul-24 2,370 2,382 2,364 2,374 2,360 2,373 13 33,419 262,199
Sep-24 2,381 2,394 2,378 2,386 2,373 2,387 14 15,145 108,583
Nov-24 2,355 2,363 2,350 2,357 2,344 2,357 13 2,519 18,453
Jan-25 2,353 2,360 2,346 2,358 2,342 2,354 12 419 2,775
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,156,696 lots, or 35.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,225 3,261 3,223 3,250 3,215 3,245 30 41,846 91,672
May-24 3,056 3,080 3,053 3,072 3,046 3,066 20 966,427 1,562,450
Jul-24 3,049 3,076 3,049 3,067 3,041 3,062 21 19,190 189,202
Aug-24 3,131 3,157 3,131 3,152 3,125 3,142 17 2,921 41,990
Sep-24 3,126 3,142 3,113 3,135 3,110 3,128 18 121,228 526,715
Nov-24 3,108 3,132 3,106 3,127 3,102 3,119 17 1,650 42,147
Dec-24 3,133 3,147 3,126 3,143 3,120 3,137 17 525 9,722
Jan-25 3,115 3,134 3,112 3,129 3,105 3,123 18 2,909 12,969
Palm Oil
Turnover: 554,348 lots, or 41.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,550 7,560 7,504 7,528 7,588 7,540 -48 388 1,784
Mar-24 7,594 7,654 7,552 7,616 7,636 7,606 -30 7,798 18,778
Apr-24 7,530 7,620 7,510 7,582 7,556 7,568 12 1,144 3,921
May-24 7,432 7,520 7,410 7,498 7,470 7,472 2 503,800 453,285
Jun-24 7,304 7,386 7,272 7,366 7,324 7,338 14 930 2,490
Jul-24 7,184 7,278 7,184 7,252 7,196 7,240 44 397 1,545
Aug-24 7,076 7,178 7,072 7,166 7,098 7,138 40 68 1,482
Sep-24 7,042 7,112 7,002 7,102 7,032 7,068 36 39,703 76,419
Oct-24 7,012 7,060 7,012 7,048 6,990 7,038 48 28 351
Nov-24 6,954 7,028 6,954 7,004 6,966 7,002 36 21 485
Dec-24 6,948 6,996 6,948 6,964 6,930 6,972 42 22 85
Jan-25 6,916 6,986 6,916 6,978 6,916 6,954 38 49 147
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 456,480 lots, or 34.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,862 7,930 7,828 7,922 7,836 7,894 58 6,004 13,182
May-24 7,570 7,684 7,564 7,674 7,596 7,644 48 411,516 531,678
Jul-24 7,512 7,568 7,476 7,554 7,492 7,534 42 2,124 25,287
Aug-24 7,494 7,552 7,460 7,534 7,468 7,520 52 800 12,743
Sep-24 7,456 7,524 7,424 7,508 7,430 7,488 58 35,295 97,966
Nov-24 7,400 7,476 7,388 7,456 7,396 7,448 52 562 4,130
Dec-24 7,450 7,472 7,436 7,458 7,410 7,456 46 65 1,196
Jan-25 7,420 7,432 7,352 7,422 7,372 7,410 38 114 432
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322