Grains Report 01/23/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 22
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Jan 22, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 18, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 01/18/2024 01/11/2024 01/19/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 200 0 299 1,814 2,154
CORN 713,290 946,417 728,841 14,702,517 11,510,979
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 78,689 296,128 72,574 2,618,463 493,628
SOYBEANS 1,161,100 1,278,168 1,839,182 26,751,644 34,270,222
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 314,521 242,409 349,393 10,723,042 12,777,082
Total 2,267,800 2,763,122 2,990,289 54,805,479 59,062,911
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were a little higher yesterday after a rather quiet session. The advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill for Winter Wheat markets and very dry conditions in the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies until now are keeping production ideas for next year in check. There was snow cover to protect many of the crops so little if any damage is expected. It should be a warmer week this week. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be fading. Ukraine said that it is having trouble with shipping as much of the Wheat is shipped through the Red Sea due to the Houthi bombing of ships there. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 598, 591, and 585 March, with resistance at 608, 613, and 622 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 607, 587, and 584 March, with resistance at 622, 637, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 679, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 703, 713, and 720 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday in range trading. The charts show that futures remain in a trading range but are trying to break out of that range to the upside. The weekly export sales report showed improved demand from Latin America and Japan. It was cold in the southern US last week and cash movement has been at a minimum. Warmer and wetter weather is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1744, 1721, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1774, 1785, and 1814 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed near unchanged yesterday in consolidation trading as ideas of too much production for the demand in the US continue. The charts show that Corn did not confirm a move to lower prices in the second half of last week and rebounded to close in the trading range. Oats were a little lower. Trends are sideways on the daily and weekly charts in this market. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 437, 435, and 432 March, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 462 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 350, and 338 March, and resistance is at 393, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative short covering, but Soybean Meal was lower. The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this week. Soybean Meal remains weak on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Wire reports indicate that Chinese hog herds have been cut significantly and much less Soybean Meal demand is expected from that sector. Soybeans imports requirements could be 20% less as a result.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1201, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 1227, 1235, and 1252 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 March, and resistance is at 366.00, 370.00, and 376.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4670, 4570, a6nd 4520 March, with resistance at 4820, 4900, and 4960 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today ideas of better demand and on strength in Soybean Oil and Crude Oil futures. China has been a noted buyer recently. MPOB estimated production at 1.550 million tons, down 13.3% from November. Demand was also down, but ending stocks were estimated at 2.291 million tons, down 4.6%. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and on the weekly charts as futures are once again testing important resistance areas on the weekly charts. Canola was higher in consolidation trading. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily and weekly charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 630.00, 623.00, and 615.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3880, 3830, and 3790 April, with resistance at 3950, 4050, and 4130 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 867.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 867.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 852.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 875.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 860.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 830.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 880.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 730.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,980 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 252.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7248)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 80,155 lots, or 3.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,769 4,801 4,752 4,791 4,773 4,776 3 64,650 172,050
May-24 4,732 4,763 4,729 4,758 4,750 4,745 -5 13,437 51,416
Jul-24 4,650 4,683 4,649 4,681 4,669 4,664 -5 1,021 17,553
Sep-24 4,641 4,666 4,634 4,662 4,652 4,645 -7 769 9,485
Nov-24 4,633 4,647 4,620 4,640 4,639 4,627 -12 143 468
Jan-25 4,627 4,631 4,611 4,625 4,629 4,617 -12 135 363
Corn
Turnover: 622,135 lots, or 14.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,288 2,307 2,283 2,305 2,296 2,293 -3 50,578 184,023
May-24 2,322 2,344 2,318 2,340 2,328 2,329 1 503,843 935,402
Jul-24 2,355 2,374 2,350 2,371 2,358 2,360 2 50,341 259,091
Sep-24 2,365 2,385 2,363 2,382 2,371 2,373 2 15,018 109,297
Nov-24 2,339 2,356 2,337 2,353 2,343 2,344 1 1,623 17,925
Jan-25 2,341 2,350 2,338 2,347 2,343 2,342 -1 732 2,677
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,051,316 lots, or 32.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,195 3,232 3,186 3,217 3,198 3,215 17 53,057 95,155
May-24 3,030 3,065 3,021 3,047 3,048 3,046 -2 860,859 1,598,327
Jul-24 3,028 3,059 3,017 3,043 3,045 3,041 -4 18,323 195,209
Aug-24 3,111 3,143 3,103 3,126 3,132 3,125 -7 3,672 43,095
Sep-24 3,098 3,126 3,087 3,112 3,118 3,110 -8 110,502 526,600
Nov-24 3,095 3,115 3,079 3,102 3,109 3,102 -7 2,124 42,149
Dec-24 3,104 3,131 3,099 3,122 3,124 3,120 -4 633 9,792
Jan-25 3,090 3,130 3,085 3,109 3,108 3,105 -3 2,146 12,436
Palm Oil
Turnover: 700,624 lots, or 52.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,602 7,644 7,516 7,516 7,602 7,588 -14 458 2,042
Mar-24 7,678 7,722 7,572 7,576 7,682 7,636 -46 12,951 18,728
Apr-24 7,562 7,642 7,514 7,524 7,618 7,556 -62 1,395 3,808
May-24 7,458 7,542 7,422 7,432 7,498 7,470 -28 624,193 443,966
Jun-24 7,312 7,388 7,288 7,296 7,350 7,324 -26 1,020 2,599
Jul-24 7,188 7,258 7,166 7,170 7,250 7,196 -54 210 1,485
Aug-24 7,068 7,126 7,068 7,078 7,130 7,098 -32 91 1,471
Sep-24 7,006 7,072 6,988 7,020 7,056 7,032 -24 60,099 72,192
Oct-24 6,954 7,010 6,954 6,980 7,012 6,990 -22 44 350
Nov-24 6,920 6,986 6,920 6,954 6,984 6,966 -18 80 488
Dec-24 6,898 6,950 6,898 6,938 6,962 6,930 -32 32 90
Jan-25 6,900 6,940 6,876 6,920 6,940 6,916 -24 51 160
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 551,432 lots, or 41.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,822 7,890 7,776 7,852 7,862 7,836 -26 6,997 15,370
May-24 7,560 7,646 7,532 7,608 7,610 7,596 -14 496,879 539,623
Jul-24 7,474 7,530 7,432 7,502 7,510 7,492 -18 2,291 25,736
Aug-24 7,432 7,508 7,410 7,488 7,478 7,468 -10 1,287 12,735
Sep-24 7,420 7,480 7,374 7,448 7,448 7,430 -18 43,183 99,910
Nov-24 7,358 7,436 7,336 7,412 7,418 7,396 -22 582 4,273
Dec-24 7,362 7,440 7,356 7,424 7,422 7,410 -12 40 1,212
Jan-25 7,438 7,438 7,280 7,368 7,378 7,372 -6 173 420
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322