About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton closed higher yesterday and prices overall remain in a trading range. Reports indicate that the US cash market has been moderately active with some producer selling and mill fixing noted. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and much below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see scattered showers and much below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and much below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 77.88 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 1,949 bales, from 1,949 bales yesterday. USDA said that weekl net Upland Cotton export sales were 420,000 bales this year and 17,600 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 3,500 bales this year and 600 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.60, 80.10, and 79.60 March, with resistance of 83.10, 83.30 and 83.80 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 18
As of Jan 12. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 24 25,466 25,592 -126 20,704 21,700 -996
May 24 14,461 13,766 695 3,543 3,457 86
Jul 24 18,002 18,068 -66 3,260 3,133 127
Oct 24 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 24 8,138 8,077 61 31,615 31,499 116
Mar 25 608 608 0 1,026 1,026 0
May 25 613 613 0 353 370 -17
Jul 25 431 431 0 4 4 0
Dec 25 542 542 0 3,550 3,550 0
Mar 26 88 88 0 0 0 0
Total 68,349 67,785 564 64,055 64,739 -684
Open Open Change
Int Int
Mar 24 91,447 93,917 -2,470
May 24 45,756 44,020 1,736
Jul 24 38,886 35,358 3,528
Oct 24 98 121 -23
Dec 24 26,172 26,242 -70
Mar 25 2,948 2,798 150
May 25 75 64 11
Jul 25 68 59 9
Dec 25 66 43 23
Mar 26 0 0 0
Total 205,516 202,622 2,894

General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday on some speculative short covering. The overall downside moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and imply that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. Prices have been moving lower on the increased production potential for Florida and the IUS and also in Brazil. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 281.00, 272.00, and 261.00 March, with resistance at 302.00, 310.00, and 320.00 March.

General Comments: New York closed a little higher and London closed lower yesterday. Robusta offers remain difficult to find but appeared tz4o increase yesterday or else demand moved away from Robusta to lower quality Arabica. Brazil weather continues to improve for best Coffee production. Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and Vietnamese and Brazilian producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week. Arabica and Robusta areas were affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven but is improving for the best crop production. Reports indicate that logistical problems remain to delay shipments from Brazil.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.263 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 172.37 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 179.00, 168.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 188.00 and 192.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 3350 Marcg. Support is at 2990, 2920, and 2820 March, with resistance at 3200, 3230, and 3260 March.

General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends are still up on the daily charts. Reports indicate that logistical problems continue to plague Sugar shipments from Brazil.. Brazil weather forecasts call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week but showers in all areas starting this weekend. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2300 and 2480 March. Support is at 2190, 2120, and 2060 March and resistance is at 2320, 2400, and 2480 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 692 March. Support is at 622.00, 612.00, and 620.00 March, with resistance at 668.00, 674.00, and 687.00 March.

General Comments: New York was a little higher and London was mixed in consolidation trading. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.128 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 4570 and 4770 March. Support is at 4320, 4270, and 4230 March, with resistance at 4500, 4520, and 455a0 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 3630, 3570, and 3500 March, with resistance at 3780, 3810, and 3840 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322