Grains Report 01/18/2024

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for January Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Jan 1 102.2 101.4-102.5
Placed in Dec 95.4 91.5-98.0
Marketed in Dec 99.2 98.2-100.7
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan 1 in Dec in Dec
Allegiant Commodity Group 101.8 93.3 99.4
Allendale Inc. 102.2 97.5 100.7
HedgersEdge 102.1 93.3 98.2
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 102.4 97.9 99.4
Midwest Market Solutions 102.3 93.5 98.2
NFC Markets 102.3 96.7 99.4
Texas A&M Extension 102.5 98.0 99.4
US Commodities 101.4 91.5 99.5

DJ Farmland Prices Look to Have Hit Limits — Market Talk
0937 ET – Prices for farmland in the U.S., among the top-gaining assets in the country, may have hit their peak and are coming back to Earth, says Ty Kreitman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Kreitman says that interest costs on new farmland loans exceeded that of average annual appreciation of farmland values in 2023–the first time that’s happened since 2001. This shift is occurring as input costs to farm stay high, and grain futures prices slide–squeezing farmers as the big jumps in farmland values seen in recent years appear to have slowed. CBOT corn is down 0.1%, soybeans are virtually unchanged, and wheat is off 0.8%.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly lower yesterday in response weaker demand ideas and bad export inspections. The USDA reports on Friday were actually price positive and the advent of very cold weather into the central US promoted ideas of limited Winterkill. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage is expected. The big weakness in Soybeans caused weakness in Wheat as did a dismal export sales pace to date for US Wheat. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average much below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 572 and 542 March. Support is at 577, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 594, 604, and 613 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 580 and 553 March. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 622, 637, and 647 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 689 March. Support is at 680, 674, and 668 March, and resistance is at 703, 713, and 720 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower in low volume trading yesterday. \Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia. Futures are trying to complete a sideways formation with a move to higher prices and might have started on this quest on Friday. The market acts firm despite the USDA long grain reports as world data showed cuts to ending stocks levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1744, 1721, and 1710 March and resistance is at 1774, 1785, and 1814 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading as ideas of too much production for the demand in the US continue. The export inspections report showed less offtake USDA increased yields by over 3 bu/acre last week.re to177.4 bu/acre and increased production to 15.342 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 2.163 billion bushels, from 2.131. billion last month. USDA left export demand unchanged but increased domestic demand in all categories but not enough to change the trajectory of higher stocks. The CONAB Brazil production estimate released on Wednesday that was reduced for the coming year due to reduced Winter Corn planted area and USDA reduced its production estimate as well. Oats were higher in sympathy with Corn as no changes were made to the balance sheets. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of very cold air for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 436 March. Support is at 440, 434, and 432 March, and resistance is at 452, 456, and 462 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 350, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 376, 393, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday, but Soybean Oil was higher on news that China could reduce Soy imports by 20% because of reduced hog herds. Production was raised to 4.165 billion bushels in response to a yield estimate of a50.6 bu/acre, from49.8 bu/acre in November. Ending stocks The precipitation keeps falling in Brazil is expected to continue through this weekend. Soybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. Support also came from reports of reduced Brazil production. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1200 March. Support is at 1203, 1192, and 1180 March, and resistance is at 135, 1252, and 1260 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 350.00, and 347.00 March, and resistance is at 370.00, 376.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4670, 4570, a6nd 4520 March, with resistance at 4900, 4960, and 5920 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today along with weakness in Soybean Oil. MPOB estimated production at 1.550 million tons, down 13.3% from November. Demand was also down, but ending stocks were estimated at 2.291 million tons, down 4.6%. Trends are turning up on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower in consolidation trading. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 615.00, 610.00, and 604.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 4010 and 4220 April. Support is at 3830, 3800, and 3770 April, with resistance at 3890, 3950, and 4050 April.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average much below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 865.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 865.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 847.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 817.50 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 872.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 872.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 855.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 825.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 855.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 720.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 3,9400 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 249.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7161)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 99,600 lots, or 4.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 4,796 4,803 4,757 4,774 4,820 4,775 -45 77,274 173,065
May-24 4,771 4,782 4,743 4,756 4,790 4,759 -31 17,178 46,789
Jul-24 4,713 4,713 4,681 4,684 4,734 4,689 -45 3,760 15,237
Sep-24 4,696 4,697 4,665 4,667 4,718 4,673 -45 1,345 8,222
Nov-24 4,649 4,658 4,641 4,650 4,691 4,649 -42 34 208
Jan-25 4,631 4,666 4,631 4,643 4,661 4,643 -18 9 11
Corn
Turnover: 839,184 lots, or 19.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 2,325 2,333 2,304 2,327 2,339 2,316 -23 78,069 207,427
May-24 2,351 2,365 2,331 2,358 2,371 2,346 -25 643,827 838,796
Jul-24 2,385 2,391 2,361 2,383 2,398 2,374 -24 78,125 240,846
Sep-24 2,397 2,400 2,379 2,392 2,407 2,390 -17 31,873 101,334
Nov-24 2,356 2,366 2,340 2,359 2,362 2,352 -10 6,335 16,363
Jan-25 2,340 2,341 2,318 2,333 2,346 2,326 -20 955 1,673
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,926,100 lots, or 58.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 3,256 3,260 3,134 3,180 3,315 3,188 -127 159,001 116,255
May-24 3,043 3,045 2,988 3,028 3,076 3,017 -59 1,483,316 1,656,470
Jul-24 3,043 3,043 2,990 3,026 3,073 3,017 -56 61,128 220,598
Aug-24 3,130 3,130 3,077 3,110 3,153 3,104 -49 10,984 47,026
Sep-24 3,114 3,114 3,064 3,094 3,148 3,087 -61 191,038 549,726
Nov-24 3,100 3,108 3,061 3,090 3,133 3,084 -49 11,734 43,010
Dec-24 3,121 3,124 3,090 3,110 3,147 3,108 -39 3,900 9,870
Jan-25 3,114 3,120 3,082 3,104 3,133 3,100 -33 4,999 9,291
Palm Oil
Turnover: 631,421 lots, or 46.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-24 7,282 7,450 7,278 7,450 7,348 7,384 36 731 2,765
Mar-24 7,382 7,522 7,352 7,522 7,436 7,446 10 7,537 16,355
Apr-24 7,352 7,496 7,344 7,492 7,420 7,414 -6 592 3,814
May-24 7,286 7,416 7,264 7,412 7,364 7,346 -18 570,468 427,430
Jun-24 7,174 7,290 7,164 7,290 7,254 7,226 -28 894 2,921
Jul-24 7,040 7,158 7,022 7,158 7,030 7,066 36 545 1,672
Aug-24 6,960 7,048 6,950 7,048 6,974 6,980 6 190 1,520
Sep-24 6,898 6,972 6,872 6,968 6,956 6,926 -30 50,242 64,057
Oct-24 6,868 6,946 6,846 6,946 6,906 6,894 -12 60 385
Nov-24 6,852 6,920 6,836 6,906 6,874 6,872 -2 75 565
Dec-24 6,812 6,894 6,810 6,888 6,860 6,858 -2 23 67
Jan-25 6,830 6,868 6,800 6,852 6,854 6,820 -34 64 120
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 633,849 lots, or 47.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-24 7,634 7,774 7,634 7,744 7,746 7,700 -46 7,421 19,416
May-24 7,394 7,516 7,378 7,484 7,490 7,448 -42 562,898 574,915
Jul-24 7,334 7,440 7,320 7,410 7,412 7,378 -34 3,866 26,277
Aug-24 7,304 7,394 7,296 7,386 7,378 7,344 -34 958 12,501
Sep-24 7,272 7,362 7,258 7,354 7,344 7,310 -34 57,505 93,396
Nov-24 7,244 7,334 7,242 7,332 7,308 7,280 -28 835 4,456
Dec-24 7,296 7,370 7,290 7,360 7,346 7,338 -8 31 1,266
Jan-25 7,254 7,342 7,206 7,274 7,338 7,282 -56 335 300
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322