Grains Report 1/10/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 11, 2024 59 Jan 09, 2024
ROUGH RICE January Jan 11, 2024 13 Jan 09, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 11, 2024 36 Dec 28, 2023

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections Exported by Rail – Jan 10
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED JAN 10, 2024 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING DECEMBER 2023
————————————————————————
Dec-23 Nov-23 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 35,027 45,705
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 3 300 599 3,695
WHEAT HRS 0 0 100 100
WHEAT HRW 3 300 0 500
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 100
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 698 698
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 200 898
CANOLA 0 0 5,588 44,309
CORN WHITE 177 17,662 0 69,653
CORN YELLOW 8,452 843,427 1,090,125 9,575,826
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,994
SORGHUM 0 0 0 399
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 2,621 261,554 272,928 3,123,253
SUNFLOWER 0 0 200 600
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 5,988
WHEAT HDWH 25 2,494 2,495 8,182
WHEAT HRS 479 47,802 39,419 667,821
WHEAT HRW 905 90,314 73,946 1,265,188
WHEAT SRW 383 38,225 32,232 379,116
WHEAT SWW 3 300 200 7,491
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

DJ Brazil’s Conab Makes Cuts to Corn and Soybean Output
By Kirk Maltais
Brazilian producers are expected to harvest 155.3 million metric tons of soybeans and 117.6 million tons of corn for the 2023/24 marketing year – estimates down from previous forecasts.
In its latest forecast published Wednesday, Brazilian crop agency Conab said that it made reductions to its outlook for the 2023/24 marketing year due to “unstable weather conditions” creating delays in the planting and developments of those crops.
“Scarce and poorly distributed rainfall combined with high temperatures in the central region of the country, in addition to heavy rainfall in the South region, caused and still persist in the delay in planting the crop,” said the agency in a release, adding that these delays have persisted into harvesting.
Conab began the planting season with projections for a soybean crop of 162 million tons, with today’s reduction making it a 4.2% drop in expectations. Even so, if this figure bears out, it would stand as a new record for Brazilian soybean output.
Following the release of the report, grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade moved lower in pre-opening trade. Most-active corn is down 0.6%, soybeans are down 0.5%, and wheat is down 0.2%.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday on buying before the USDA reports on Friday and the advent of very cold weather into the central US. There should be snow cover to protect the crops so little if any damage ius expected.. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB with Ukrainian prices about the same. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 592, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 632, 640, and 643 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 584, 572, and 560 March, with resistance at 637, 647, and 658 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 698 and 689 March. Support is at 699, 697, and 686 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday after trading a little lower for much of the session. The trends are turning down on the daily charts. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been weaker lately and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1766, 1774, and 1785 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 10
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.51 15.39 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 24.03 16.04 0.00
Brokens 14.83 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading and before the USDA reports on Friday. Oats were higher. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many havee sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. There are also forecasts for a lot of snow for the Midwest to keep farmers inside and not opening the bins. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. Showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. Significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 445 March. Support is at 450, 447, and 444 March, and resistance is at 464, 469, and 472 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 351, 338, and 330 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed higher and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday on reports of better rains in Brazil. The precipitation is expected to continue this week. Up to three inches are in the forecast for central and northern Brazil, Soybean Meal was weaker on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1234, 1224, and 1212 March, and resistance is at 1265, 1281, and 1296 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 360.00 March. Support is at 364.00, 362.00, 3nd 359.00 March, and resistance is at 376.00, 381.00, and 386.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, a6nd 4620 March, with resistance at 4900, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday in reaction to weaker than expected December production and stocks data posted by MPOB. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower yesterday and closed at new lows for the move on a change in the Brazil weather forecasts. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 610.00, 604.00, and 598.00 March, with resistance at 646.00, 656.00, and 665.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3750, 3790, and 3850 March.

DJ Malaysia Jan. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Fell 9.8% on Month to 349,075 Tons, AmSpec Says
By Ying Xian Wong
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the January 1-10 period are estimated down 9.8% on month at 349,075 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
January 1-10 December 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 77,955 90,340
RBD Palm Oil 18,300 25,521
RBD Palm Stearin 18,860 28,720
Crude Palm Oil 84,220 115,220
Total* 349,075 386,986
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

DJ Malaysia’s December Palm Oil Exports 1.33M Tons, Down 5.1%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were down 5.1% on month at 1.33 million metric tons in December, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the December crop data and revised numbers for November, issued by MPOB:
December November Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,550,797 1,788,870 Dn 13.31%
Palm Oil Exports 1,334,441 1,406,462 Dn 5.12%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 88,261 99,768 Dn 11.53%
Palm Oil Imports 36,573 39,696 Dn 7.87%
Closing Stocks 2,291,167 2,402,611 Dn 4.64%
Crude Palm Oil 1,197,939 1,322,662 Dn 9.43%
Processed Palm Oil 1,093,228 1,079,949 Up 1.23%

Midwest Weather Forecast Mixed precipitation. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 835.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 835.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 835.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 830.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 815.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 842.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 842.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 842.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 837.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 822.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 835.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 720.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,770.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 242.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6398)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 88,657 lots, or 4.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,748 4,762 4,738 4,762 4,776 4,757 -19 404 720
Mar-24 4,796 4,815 4,778 4,802 4,809 4,796 -13 69,634 166,714
May-24 4,779 4,786 4,753 4,772 4,780 4,769 -11 13,763 43,204
Jul-24 4,746 4,758 4,716 4,733 4,752 4,732 -20 2,991 7,667
Sep-24 4,734 4,744 4,705 4,723 4,736 4,722 -14 1,818 7,004
Nov-24 4,710 4,713 4,684 4,693 4,712 4,696 -16 47 180
Corn
Turnover: 606,446 lots, or 14.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 2,398 2,398 2,398 0 0 1,000
Mar-24 2,363 2,368 2,332 2,332 2,358 2,348 -10 86,231 267,172
May-24 2,383 2,391 2,354 2,355 2,381 2,372 -9 447,702 760,875
Jul-24 2,401 2,408 2,372 2,373 2,397 2,388 -9 47,556 218,684
Sep-24 2,397 2,403 2,370 2,371 2,392 2,384 -8 21,290 91,871
Nov-24 2,351 2,354 2,328 2,328 2,351 2,340 -11 3,667 14,450
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,104,495 lots, or 35.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,632 3,655 3,610 3,655 3,677 3,634 -43 33 90
Mar-24 3,508 3,522 3,461 3,463 3,497 3,488 -9 85,281 163,308
May-24 3,163 3,173 3,130 3,144 3,154 3,152 -2 844,483 1,455,228
Jul-24 3,152 3,158 3,120 3,132 3,138 3,144 6 50,211 276,897
Aug-24 3,231 3,247 3,211 3,220 3,231 3,228 -3 5,323 54,688
Sep-24 3,224 3,230 3,191 3,204 3,210 3,211 1 113,804 460,463
Nov-24 3,190 3,205 3,170 3,179 3,188 3,187 -1 4,273 34,906
Dec-24 3,192 3,198 3,165 3,170 3,185 3,173 -12 1,087 6,655
Palm Oil
Turnover: 744,907 lots, or 53.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,080 7,080 7,080 7,080 6,984 7,080 96 10 702
Feb-24 7,062 7,264 7,056 7,228 6,984 7,146 162 4,611 5,452
Mar-24 7,120 7,320 7,120 7,282 7,034 7,218 184 11,416 15,165
Apr-24 7,088 7,286 7,088 7,252 7,032 7,166 134 1,965 5,384
May-24 7,100 7,260 7,072 7,226 6,996 7,158 162 690,275 420,130
Jun-24 7,000 7,210 7,000 7,168 6,954 7,096 142 1,569 2,759
Jul-24 6,950 7,138 6,950 7,098 6,910 7,048 138 246 1,020
Aug-24 6,952 7,080 6,928 7,046 6,854 6,986 132 1,340 1,277
Sep-24 6,900 7,030 6,886 7,010 6,836 6,960 124 33,185 35,265
Oct-24 6,908 6,998 6,870 6,976 6,818 6,932 114 179 312
Nov-24 6,890 6,950 6,856 6,950 6,806 6,924 118 90 441
Dec-24 6,888 6,968 6,858 6,968 6,794 6,900 106 21 38
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 652,566 lots, or 48.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 – – – 7,796 7,796 7,796 0 300 1,233
Mar-24 7,708 7,852 7,708 7,810 7,638 7,776 138 16,954 24,064
May-24 7,458 7,578 7,432 7,548 7,378 7,498 120 592,485 585,302
Jul-24 7,390 7,486 7,364 7,466 7,308 7,416 108 6,752 35,441
Aug-24 7,372 7,468 7,352 7,446 7,328 7,406 78 824 12,577
Sep-24 7,328 7,426 7,304 7,400 7,262 7,358 96 34,228 68,563
Nov-24 7,294 7,396 7,280 7,374 7,228 7,334 106 904 4,246
Dec-24 7,340 7,420 7,320 7,394 7,284 7,372 88 119 1,192
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322