Softs Report 1/9/2024

DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-January 9
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2023—- —-Oct 2023—-
-coffee- kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 85,934,151 189,484,803 82,800,812 182,575,790
coffee, roasted 9,590,418 21,146,872 9,948,150 21,935,671
coffee, soluble
instant 4,396,944 9,695,262 4,931,643 10,874,273
-Cocoa-
cocoa beans 5,597,410 12,342,289 6,936,205 15,294,332
sweetened bars/block
10 lbs or over 2,469,174 5,444,529 3,195,280 7,045,592
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 5,654,571 12,468,329 8,089,985 17,838,417
cocoa paste,
not defatted 5,188,421 11,440,468 6,350,746 14,003,395
cocoa paste
defatted 4,770,550 10,519,063 3,422,940 7,547,583
cocoa powder,
unsweetened 7,780,468 17,155,932 8,953,103 19,741,592
cocoa powder,
sweetened 165,078 363,997 254,247 560,615
confectioners
coating 4,486,935 9,893,692 4,776,276 10,531,689
candy containing
chocolate 13,573,964 29,930,591 14,301,312 31,534,393

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton closed a little higher yesterday in sideways trading. Demand for US Cotton in the export market has improved over the last couple of months and was very strong last week.. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand has been down. There are still many concerns about demand from China and the rest of Asia due to the slow economic return of China in the world market. There are production concerns about Australian and Indian Cotton as both countries are likely to suffer the effects of El Nino starting this Fall, but Brazil production prospects are said to be very strong.
Overnight News: The Delta will get a few showers and near to below normal temperatures. The Southeast will see s fee showers and near to below normal temperatures. Texas will have a few showers and near to below normal temperatures. The USDA average price is now 76.60 ct/lb. ICE daily certified stocks are now 3,232 bales, from 3,267 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 79.60, 78.90, and 78.30 March, with resistance of 81.70, 83.10 and 83.40 March.

DJ U.S. Nov Cotton Exports-Jan 9
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 23 Oct 23 Sep 23 Nov 22
Upland, under 1 inch 3,878,585 1,388,795 2,289,073 3,272,164
1 to 1 1/8 inch 43,230,233 29,233,764 46,933,020 62,024,752
upland 1 1/8 and over 6,644,445 1,469,295 1,097,043 3,191,965
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 67,781,979 52,907,128 91,983,527 97,532,862
All cotton 121,535,242 84,998,982 142,302,663 166,021,743
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 23 Oct 23 Sep 23 Nov 22
Upland, under 1 inch 17,814 6,379 10,514 15,029
1 to 1 1/8 inch 198,555 134,270 215,562 284,877
upland 1 1/8 and over 30,518 6,748 5,039 14,661
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 311,320 243,000 422,477 447,965
All cotton 558,207 390,397 653,591 762,532

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower to limit down yesterday as the downside price action returned. The moves imply that supply is finally getting bigger than demand and imply that consumer demand has dropped significantly in recent weeks. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida right now with the hurricane season all but over and no major storms hitting the state recently. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall in the forecast for this week. Brazil got more than expected rains over the weekend. Reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around. Historically low estimates of production in Florida due in part to the hurricanes and in part to the greening disease that have hurt production, but conditions are significantly better now with scattered showers and moderate temperatures.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, with resistance at 320.00, 327.00, and 341.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed a little lower and London closed higher yesterday as Rains continued to fall in parts of Brazil Coffee areas and as Vietnamese producers remain reluctant sellers. Brazil production areas are seeing some very beneficial rainfall this current week with up to one to three inches of rain in the forecast for some of the driest areas. Arabica and Robusta areas are affected by drought, but the current forecasts call for a lot of help in affected areas. Brazil weather remains uneven for the best crop production.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 0.252 million bags. The ICO daily average price is now 173.84 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 179.00, 168.00, and 165.00 March, and resistance is at 185.00, 187.00 and 192.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2780, and 2750 March, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3020 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, and trends are turning up on the daily charts. Some follow through buying today could be confirmation that a low has finally been set in these markets. Brazil weather forecasts call for dryness in the south and continued scattered showers in central and northern areas this week. The market continues to see stressful conditions in Asian production areas but has noted that India has changed its Ethanol policy to make more Sugar available to the market. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production potential due to El Nino and talk that India could turn into an importer next year. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering or at least not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine, and demand is still strong. Brazil ports are very congested, so shipment of Sugar has been slower.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2480 March. Support is at 2120, 2060, and 2040 March and resistance is at 2190, 2250, and 2310 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 651.00 and 692.00 March. Support is at 610.00, 597.00, and 595.00 March, with resistance at 625.00, 633.00, and 639.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday and trends turned down in a big way on the daily charts. The harvest seems to be coming and demand could be a problem with the current very high prices. Traders are worried about another short production year and these feelings have been enhanced by El Nino that could threaten West Africa crops with hot and dry weather later this year. The main crop harvest is starting in parts of West Africa so the losses will become minor for now. Scattered to isolated showers are reported in the region now and the harvest is coming. Ideas of tight supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue,
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.139 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3950 and 35680 March. Support is at 4040, 3980, and 3970 March, with resistance at 4200, 4280, and 4340 March. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 3330, 3290, and 3220 March, with resistance at 3400, 3450, and 3500 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322