Grains Report 01/05/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 5
For the week ended Dec 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 131.6 4.3 15265.2 14969.9 5908.0 200.4
hrw 42.7 4.3 2672.6 4116.1 975.5 25.6
srw 31.5 0.0 4323.9 2380.3 2448.8 90.8
hrs 54.6 0.0 4888.0 4523.1 1487.7 45.0
white 2.8 0.0 3019.6 3684.1 926.3 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 361.1 266.2 69.8 39.0
corn 367.5 -0.2 29788.7 21740.5 17398.6 1072.7
soybeans 201.6 0.6 36545.6 43617.7 13630.6 153.6
soymeal 81.4 0.0 7148.1 6199.8 3818.5 5.9
soyoil 1.2 0.0 33.5 37.1 26.2 0.6
upland cotton 131.1 0.0 8623.4 8786.4 5351.9 643.7
pima cotton 2.1 0.0 189.3 119.9 83.4 2.7
sorghum 18.7 0.0 3933.1 360.9 2004.9 177.6
barley 0.0 0.0 16.6 11.7 15.6 0.0
rice 31.2 0.0 1842.6 1039.5 771.9 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 08, 2024 100 Nov 28, 2023
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 08, 2024 36 Dec 29, 2023
ROUGH RICE January Jan 08, 2024 23 Jan 03, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 08, 2024 22 Dec 27, 2023

DJ Food Prices Fell in December, UN Says
By Giulia Petroni
Food prices fell in December, as lower prices for sugar, vegetable oils and meat offset increases in dairy products and cereals, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said on Friday.
The UN FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 118.5 points in December, down 1.5% from November’s level and 10% lower from a year earlier.
Sugar prices dropped around 17% in December-the lowest level in the past nine months-driven by strong production in Brazil and India’s reduced use of sugarcane for ethanol production, the FAO said. Vegetable oil prices fell 1.4%, with soy oil hit by weaker demand in the biodiesel sector, while meat prices were down 1% partly due to weak import demand from Asia for pig meat.
Meanwhile, cereal prices rose 1.5% in December, as logistical disruptions affected shipments from major exporting countries, but the index was still well below the 2022 average, reflecting well supplied global markets, according to the UN body. Dairy prices rose 1.6% in December, led by higher prices for butter and cheese in Western Europe ahead of the holiday season.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher yesterday and showed a hook reversal up on the daily charts in Chicago. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 591 March. Support is at 591, 568, and 562 March, with resistance at 622, 630, and 640 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 586 March. Support is at 612, 596, and 584 March, with resistance at 637, 647, and 658 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 698 and 689 March. Support is at 699, 697, and 686 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday after making new lows for the move. The trends are turning down on the daily charts after turning up the previous day. It has been extremely violent in this market to start the year and no one is sure why. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1721, 1710, and 1707 March and resistance is at 1752, 1761, and 1774 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough, and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low overall, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. These conditions could change this week as significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 463, 458, and 445 March. Support is at 462, 459, and 456 March, and resistance is at 472, 475, and 482 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 358, 353, and 338 March, and resistance is at 380, 392, and 402 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on reports of better rains in Brazil this week. Up to three inches are in the forecast for central and northern Brazil, Soybean Meal the weakest on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1268 and 1239 March. Support is at 1266, 1256, and 1244 March, and resistance is at 1296, 1309, and 1327 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 372.00 and 360.00 March. Support is at 375.00, 371.00, 3nd 365.00 March, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 397.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, and 4620 March, with resistance at 4920, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for Palm Oil and as the weather situation is good for production. Prices were lower today on ideas of good supplies of vegetable oils in the world. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower yesterday on a change in the Brazil weather forecasts. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested, and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are down on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 634.00 March. Support is at 634.00, 628.00, and 622.00 March, with resistance at 656.00, 665.00, and 677.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3660, 3580, and 3530 March. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3690, 3750, and 3790 March.

\Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

\

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
100 Mar
90 Mar

February
61 Mar 155 Mar 100 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 95 Mar 80 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 822.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 822.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 822.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 817.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 805.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 830.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 830.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 830.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 812.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 825.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 710.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,700.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 239.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.652)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 80,090 lots, or 3.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,802 4,811 4,783 4,789 4,848 4,789 -59 1,666 1,323
Mar-24 4,843 4,854 4,825 4,828 4,868 4,838 -30 65,024 149,979
May-24 4,835 4,846 4,805 4,810 4,853 4,825 -28 11,966 36,532
Jul-24 4,813 4,822 4,784 4,788 4,835 4,800 -35 658 5,928
Sep-24 4,798 4,806 4,767 4,772 4,813 4,787 -26 763 5,953
Nov-24 4,768 4,768 4,741 4,741 4,778 4,756 -22 13 136
Corn
Turnover: 677,211 lots, or 16.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,415 2,431 2,383 2,384 2,411 2,403 -8 2,744 1,662
Mar-24 2,398 2,398 2,370 2,374 2,401 2,380 -21 88,316 323,773
May-24 2,421 2,424 2,391 2,395 2,432 2,405 -27 492,651 702,057
Jul-24 2,433 2,433 2,402 2,408 2,438 2,413 -25 66,286 234,735
Sep-24 2,422 2,429 2,400 2,407 2,436 2,410 -26 23,490 85,288
Nov-24 2,392 2,392 2,370 2,373 2,402 2,377 -25 3,724 9,956
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,128,655 lots, or 37.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,780 3,788 3,747 3,752 3,790 3,765 -25 318 2,590
Mar-24 3,672 3,672 3,574 3,582 3,673 3,614 -59 145,355 201,189
May-24 3,254 3,259 3,198 3,205 3,254 3,226 -28 831,901 1,441,603
Jul-24 3,243 3,243 3,186 3,192 3,235 3,220 -15 57,147 388,289
Aug-24 3,332 3,332 3,274 3,278 3,318 3,303 -15 8,653 63,381
Sep-24 3,304 3,305 3,256 3,257 3,301 3,277 -24 77,158 444,502
Nov-24 3,278 3,283 3,232 3,234 3,278 3,257 -21 6,414 37,808
Dec-24 3,269 3,280 3,230 3,235 3,269 3,256 -13 1,709 7,439
Palm Oil
Turnover: 604,542 lots, or 4.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 6,932 6,960 6,898 6,950 6,942 6,940 -2 57 702
Feb-24 6,964 7,050 6,918 7,008 6,964 6,986 22 7,496 10,362
Mar-24 7,018 7,110 6,978 7,068 7,018 7,032 14 9,676 18,478
Apr-24 6,998 7,084 6,960 7,040 6,998 7,024 26 3,385 7,927
May-24 6,988 7,066 6,930 7,022 6,980 7,006 26 557,703 457,759
Jun-24 6,954 7,032 6,906 6,998 6,954 6,970 16 2,178 3,897
Jul-24 6,924 6,980 6,870 6,950 6,924 6,932 8 114 1,035
Aug-24 6,866 6,926 6,840 6,888 6,866 6,886 20 159 2,496
Sep-24 6,844 6,894 6,786 6,854 6,844 6,850 6 23,651 34,973
Oct-24 6,834 6,880 6,790 6,844 6,846 6,850 4 73 398
Nov-24 6,848 6,858 6,800 6,830 6,834 6,840 6 32 439
Dec-24 6,828 6,852 6,804 6,852 6,834 6,842 8 18 41
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 499,057 lots, or 36.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,800 7,850 7,800 7,850 7,740 7,864 124 168 1,348
Mar-24 7,674 7,698 7,612 7,672 7,636 7,662 26 21,542 28,788
May-24 7,396 7,424 7,340 7,392 7,384 7,392 8 418,609 643,439
Jul-24 7,334 7,360 7,288 7,336 7,312 7,330 18 27,602 67,606
Aug-24 7,310 7,354 7,284 7,324 7,310 7,318 8 3,836 16,205
Sep-24 7,298 7,312 7,238 7,278 7,288 7,284 -4 20,776 68,556
Nov-24 7,276 7,284 7,218 7,260 7,276 7,266 -10 4,937 4,979
Dec-24 7,328 7,328 7,266 7,310 7,328 7,320 -8 1,587 1,214
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322