Grains Report 01/03/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jan 02
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Jan 2, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 28, 2023
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/28/2023 12/21/2023 12/29/2022 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,614 1,855
CORN 569,735 1,227,239 683,042 11,950,326 9,600,289
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0 200
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,794 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 111,922 260,705 2,754 2,068,409 407,014
SOYBEANS 961,694 1,117,747 1,476,592 23,261,441 28,778,610
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,160
WHEAT 273,671 461,431 85,672 9,637,945 11,892,478
Total 1,917,022 3,067,122 2,248,060 46,927,734 50,689,092
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
5 YR TREASURY NOTE December Jan 04, 2024 5 Dec 26, 2023
ROUGH RICE January Jan 04, 2024 281 Jan 02, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 04, 2024 266 Dec 22, 2023

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower yesterday despite news that Russia was bombing cities inside Ukraine. It appears that grain shipping through the Black Sea has not been affected. Black Sea offers are still plentiful and Russian prices appear to be about 260.00 per tons FOB. News that Argentina will restructure its economy with a shock devaluation of the peso and structural changes inside the country created ideas that farmers would sell, but it is unlikely they will sell right away and might be better off to wait and see a calmer situation. EU countries are offering as well and are getting new business. Demand has been poor for US Wheat as Russia production looks strong, but exports are starting to increase.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get scattered showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 591 March. Support is at 603, 591, and 568 March, with resistance at 622, 630, and 640 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 620, 612, and 596 March, with resistance at 647, 658, and 670 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 712, 709, and 699 March, and resistance is at 720, 729, and 734 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday and the trends are up on the daily charts. The Asian market remains strong with little on offer from India. Farmers appear quiet in the market and basis levels are reported to be steady, but industry and speculators have been busy. Most farmers are hunting and getting ready for the holidays and are not interested in Rice markets. Demand reports have been solid to strong for the last couple of weeks and have featured traditional buyers in Latin America and Asia.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1826 March. Support is at 1785, 1774, and 1768 March and resistance is at 1808, 1820, and 1832 March.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 3
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 24.35 15.29 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.86 15.93 0.00
Brokens 14.73 —- —-
This week’s prevailing world market prices and MLG/LDP
rates are based on the following U.S. milling yields and
the corresponding loan rates:
U.S. Milling Yields Loan Rate
Whole/Broken ($/cwt)
(lbs/cwt)
Long Grain 53.50/15.38 7.00
Medium Grain/Short Grain 60.37/10.35 7.00

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday along with weakness in Soybeans and Wheat and on improved rain forecasts for Brazil. The market anticipates increased selling from US producers, but many have sold enough and elevators and processors are reported to be full. Producers are also looking for higher prices now as crops are in the bin for the Winter. Oats were higher. Ideas of weak demand are keeping prices low over all, but the weekly export sales reports have shown good demand for the last several weeks. The market feels that there is more than enough Corn for any demand and are not buying futures despite the improve demand. It is still hot and dry in central and northern Brazil and in Argentina although some showers have been reported in Argentina and in central and northern Brazil. These conditions could change this week as significant rains are forecast for central and northern areas. Up to one to three inches of rain are in the forecast for this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 463, 458, and 445 March. Support is at 462, 459, and 456 March, and resistance is at 472, 475, and 482 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 371, 367, and 357 March, and resistance is at 392, 402, and 405 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower on forecasts for better rains in Brazil this week. Up to three inches are in the forecast for central and northern Brazil, Soybean Meal the weakest on increasing confidence that Argentina will return as a major exporter and as US crushers are crushing for oil and have a lot of extra meal available. There are some forecasts for significant rains and rains this week in central and northern Brazil and less wet conditions in the south. The trade remains concerned about the weather forecasts for South America but is holding to ideas of production over 150 million tons. Our source suggests that production in Brazil could be much less due to the extreme weather seen already. Brazil has been mostly hot and dry in northern areas and too wet in southern areas. Argentina crops are reported o be in good condition with enough moisture. These weather trends are expected to continue after next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1268 and 1239 March. Support is at 1267, 1256, and 1244 March, and resistance is at 1296, 1309, and 1327 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 372.00 and 360.00 March. Support is at 377.00, 371.00, 3nd 365.00 March, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 397.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4700, 4660, and 4620 March, with resistance at 4920, 5020, and 5170 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly lower last week on ideas of weaker demand for Palm Oil as the private sources reported improved demand for Palm Oil and as the weather situation is good for production. Pruces were lower today on ideas of good supplies of vegetable oils in the world. There had been concerns about too dry weather caused by El Nino. Production was high in the MPOB reports but is expected to drop seasonally in future reports. Trends are sideways on the daily charts and are sideways on the weekly charts. Canola was lower yesterday on a change in the Brazil weather forecasts. Current forecasts call for drier weather in southern Brazil and wetter weather in central and northern areas this week. The Canola crop is harvested and it is in bins, so it will take some price movement to get new farm sales. Trends are mixed on the daily charts in this market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 634.00 March. Support is at 634.00, 628.00, and 622.00 March, with resistance at 656.00, 665.00, and 677.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 3660, 3580, and 3530 March. Support is at 3600, 3570, and 3540 March, with resistance at 3690, 3750, and 3790 March.

\Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Nov

January 59 Mar 155 Mar
107 Mar
86 Jan

February
63 Mar 155 Mar 107 Mar 85 Mar

March
64 Mar 155 Mar 101 Mar 84 Mar

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 812.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 812.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 815.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 815.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 802.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 820.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 820.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 822.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 822.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 810.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 815.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 705.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 3,670.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 237.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.6245)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,711 lots, or .77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 4,903 4,903 4,817 4,817 4,768 4,867 99 443 4,449
Mar-24 4,930 4,931 4,845 4,856 4,951 4,878 -73 137,496 147,040
May-24 4,906 4,920 4,838 4,844 4,923 4,869 -54 18,127 35,937
Jul-24 4,894 4,900 4,820 4,825 4,899 4,852 -47 1,071 5,704
Sep-24 4,884 4,886 4,800 4,806 4,886 4,831 -55 1,529 5,831
Nov-24 4,841 4,841 4,770 4,773 4,841 4,806 -35 45 134
Corn
Turnover: 633,331 lots, or 1.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 2,402 2,429 2,394 2,429 2,400 2,417 17 1,627 4,617
Mar-24 2,396 2,426 2,389 2,407 2,394 2,406 12 95,837 348,601
May-24 2,426 2,449 2,422 2,435 2,421 2,434 13 476,327 656,879
Jul-24 2,432 2,455 2,428 2,444 2,427 2,440 13 37,550 240,034
Sep-24 2,429 2,452 2,428 2,441 2,427 2,439 12 14,618 82,247
Nov-24 2,400 2,420 2,400 2,408 2,399 2,411 12 7,372 8,634
Soymeal
Turnover: 952,371 lots, or 31.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 3,793 3,808 3,766 3,777 3,785 3,771 -14 256 5,368
Mar-24 3,662 3,672 3,635 3,664 3,691 3,653 -38 92,192 217,932
May-24 3,255 3,255 3,224 3,245 3,258 3,239 -19 696,827 1,403,900
Jul-24 3,239 3,243 3,215 3,232 3,254 3,222 -32 59,271 455,717
Aug-24 3,318 3,318 3,293 3,310 3,324 3,300 -24 8,669 70,366
Sep-24 3,305 3,306 3,277 3,293 3,308 3,289 -19 87,727 427,827
Nov-24 3,280 3,282 3,257 3,272 3,285 3,270 -15 5,729 44,183
Dec-24 3,279 3,279 3,254 3,265 3,279 3,261 -18 1,700 10,780
Palm Oil
Turnover: 642,349 lots, or 44.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,124 7,138 6,876 6,876 6,980 6,950 -30 1,086 757
Feb-24 7,064 7,064 6,920 6,938 7,082 7,012 -70 17,666 16,549
Mar-24 7,104 7,104 6,960 6,994 7,112 7,034 -78 7,305 25,291
Apr-24 7,092 7,092 6,948 6,964 7,100 7,018 -82 2,153 12,739
May-24 7,060 7,074 6,922 6,952 7,078 6,998 -80 592,753 472,705
Jun-24 7,050 7,050 6,900 6,922 7,046 6,980 -66 1,341 7,221
Jul-24 6,990 7,000 6,878 6,890 7,000 6,936 -64 106 1,074
Aug-24 6,966 6,966 6,840 6,858 6,964 6,898 -66 58 2,498
Sep-24 6,910 6,940 6,806 6,828 6,950 6,868 -82 19,486 34,619
Oct-24 6,914 6,914 6,804 6,832 6,958 6,856 -102 165 377
Nov-24 6,916 6,916 6,800 6,838 6,948 6,844 -104 188 427
Dec-24 6,900 6,900 6,800 6,832 6,926 6,836 -90 42 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 534,970 lots, or 39.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-24 7,736 7,804 7,506 7,506 7,736 7,740 4 19 1,348
Mar-24 7,688 7,696 7,574 7,618 7,716 7,640 -76 15,484 40,377
May-24 7,450 7,468 7,328 7,372 7,488 7,400 -88 479,823 654,572
Jul-24 7,372 7,400 7,272 7,306 7,440 7,330 -110 5,417 112,347
Aug-24 7,406 7,412 7,276 7,316 7,446 7,342 -104 1,271 27,307
Sep-24 7,380 7,380 7,240 7,276 7,398 7,308 -90 31,007 66,088
Nov-24 7,346 7,358 7,224 7,254 7,376 7,290 -86 1,527 13,687
Dec-24 7,406 7,406 7,286 7,312 7,406 7,310 -96 422 5,812
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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